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Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision

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  • Hautsch, Nikolaus
  • Hess, Dieter
  • Müller, Christoph

Abstract

We analyze how markets adjust to new information when the reliability of news is uncertain and has to be estimated itself. We propose a Bayesian learning model where market participants receive fundamental information along with noisy estimates of news’ precision. It is shown that the efficiency of a precision estimate drives the slope and the shape of price response functions to news. Increasing estimation errors induce stronger nonlinearities in price responses. Analyzing high-frequency reactions of Treasury bond futures prices to employment releases, we find strong empirical support for the model’s predictions and show that the consideration of precision uncertainty is statistically and economically important.

Suggested Citation

  • Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter & Müller, Christoph, 2012. "Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 337-355.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:2:p:337-355
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.11.013
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    Cited by:

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    2. Pervaiz Alam & Xiaoling Pu & Barry Hettler & Hai Lin, 2020. "The pricing of accruals quality in credit default swap spreads," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 1943-1977, September.
    3. Hess, Dieter & Orbe, Sebastian, 2011. "Irrationality or efficiency of macroeconomic survey forecasts? Implications from the anchoring bias test," CFR Working Papers 11-13, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian learning; Macroeconomic announcements; Information quality; Precision signals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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