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Long-memory inflation uncertainty: evidence from the term structure of interest rates

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Cited by:

  1. Dankenbring, Henning, 1998. "Volatility estimates of the short term interest rate with an application to German data," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,96, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña, 2011. "Interest rate dynamics in Kenya," NCID Working Papers 10/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
  3. Gong, Fangxiong & Remolona, Eli M, 1997. "Two Factors along the Yield Curve," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(0), pages 1-31, Supplemen.
  4. Harms, Philipp & Stefanovits, David, 2019. "Affine representations of fractional processes with applications in mathematical finance," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(4), pages 1185-1228.
  5. Carlos Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2013. "Inflation Forecasting in Angola: A Fractional Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 91-104.
  6. Dayong Zhang & Marco R. Barassi & Jijun Tan, 2015. "Residual-Based Tests for Fractional Cointegration: Testing the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1118-1140, December.
  7. Ching-Fan Chung & Mao-Wei Hung, 2000. "A general model for short-term interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 111-121.
  8. Høg, Esben & Frederiksen, Per & Schiemert, Daniel, 2008. "On the Generalized Brownian Motion and its Applications in Finance," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2008-07, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  9. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2007. "Long-range dependence and multifractality in the term structure of LIBOR interest rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 373(C), pages 603-614.
  10. Liu, Ming, 2000. "Modeling long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 139-171, November.
  11. Maria Caporale, Guglielmo & A. Gil-Alana, Luis, 2011. "Multi-Factor Gegenbauer Processes and European Inflation Rates," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 26, pages 386-409.
  12. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Moreno, Antonio, 2012. "Uncovering the US term premium: An alternative route," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1181-1193.
  13. Smallwood Aaron D, 2005. "Joint Tests for Non-linearity and Long Memory: The Case of Purchasing Power Parity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-30, June.
  14. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Olanrewaju L. Shittu & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2011. "Long memory, strcutural breaks and mean shifts in the inflation rates in Nigeria," NCID Working Papers 04/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
  15. Pfann, Gerard A. & Schotman, Peter C. & Tschernig, Rolf, 1996. "Nonlinear interest rate dynamics and implications for the term structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 149-176, September.
  16. Daniela Osterrieder, 2013. "Interest Rates with Long Memory: A Generalized Affine Term-Structure Model," CREATES Research Papers 2013-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  17. José Manuel Belbute & Alfredo Marvão Pereira, 2016. "Does final energy demand in Portugal exhibit long memory? A fractional integration analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(2), pages 59-77, August.
  18. Aaron Smallwood, 2004. "Joint Tests for Long Memory and Non-linearity: The Case of Purchasing Power Parity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 23, Society for Computational Economics.
  19. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2009. "On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 389-425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Souza, Sergio R. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2008. "Long memory testing for Fed Funds Futures’ contracts," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 180-186.
  21. Asai Manabu & Peiris Shelton & McAleer Michael & Allen David E., 2020. "Cointegrated Dynamics for a Generalized Long Memory Process: Application to Interest Rates," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
  22. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
  23. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Hector Carcel & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2015. "Modelling African inflation rates: nonlinear deterministic terms and long-range dependence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 421-424, March.
  24. Javier Hualde & Morten {O}rregaard Nielsen, 2022. "Fractional integration and cointegration," Papers 2211.10235, arXiv.org.
  25. Tkacz Greg, 2001. "Estimating the Fractional Order of Integration of Interest Rates Using a Wavelet OLS Estimator," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, April.
  26. Goliński, Adam & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Long memory affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 33-56.
  27. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis, 2017. "Central bank policy rates: Are they cointegrated?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 116-123.
  28. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1994. "Reverse Engineering the Yield Curve," Working Papers 94-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  29. den Haan, Wouter J., 1995. "The term structure of interest rates in real and monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 909-940.
  30. Gil-Bazo Javier & Rubio Gonzalo, 2004. "A Nonparametric Dimension Test of the Term Structure," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-28, September.
  31. Robert A. Connolly & Z. Nuray G‹Ner & Kenneth N. Hightower, 2007. "Evidence on the Extent and Potential Sources of Long Memory in U.S. Treasury Security Returns and Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 689-702, March.
  32. Christopher F. Baum & Olin Liu, 1994. "An Alternative Strategy for Estimation of a Nonlinear Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 275, Boston College Department of Economics.
  33. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2010. "Comovements in volatility in the euro money market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 525-539, April.
  34. Adam Golinski & Peter Spencer, 2012. "The Meiselman forward interest rate revision regression as an Affine Term Structure Model," Discussion Papers 12/27, Department of Economics, University of York.
  35. Zhongxing Wang & Yan Yan & Xiaosong Chen, 2016. "Long-range Correlation and Market Segmentation in Bond Market," Papers 1610.09812, arXiv.org.
  36. Mark J. Jensen, 1997. "Using Wavelets to Obtain a Consistent Ordinary Least Squares Estimator of the Long Memory Parameter," Econometrics 9710002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Hector Carcel & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2018. "Inflation analysis in the Central American Monetary Council," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 547-565, March.
  38. Adusei Jumah & Robert M. Kunst, 2016. "Optimizing time-series forecasts for inflation and interest rates using simulation and model averaging," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(45), pages 4366-4378, September.
  39. Hideharu Funahashi & Masaaki Kijima, 2017. "Does the Hurst index matter for option prices under fractional volatility?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 55-74, February.
  40. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Evidence of persistence in U.S. short and long-term interest rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 775-789.
  41. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2016. "Persistence and cyclical dependence in the monthly euribor rate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 157-171, January.
  42. Kunal Saha & Vinodh Madhavan & Chandrashekhar G. R. & David McMillan, 2020. "Pitfalls in long memory research," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1733280-173, January.
  43. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil‐Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2022. "On the persistence of UK inflation: A long‐range dependence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 439-454, January.
  44. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Jacobs, Kris, 2008. "Is long memory necessary? An empirical investigation of nonnegative interest rate processes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 567-581, June.
  45. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
  46. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2013. "Asymmetric and Time-Varying Causality between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in G-7 Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(1), pages 1-42, February.
  47. Biagini, Francesca & Fink, Holger & Klüppelberg, Claudia, 2013. "A fractional credit model with long range dependent default rate," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(4), pages 1319-1347.
  48. M. Shelton Peiris & Manabu Asai, 2016. "Generalized Fractional Processes with Long Memory and Time Dependent Volatility Revisited," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-21, September.
  49. Duan, Jin-Chuan, 2016. "Local-momentum autoregression and the modeling of interest rate term structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(2), pages 349-359.
  50. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Hotta, Luiz Koodi, 2013. "Indirect Inference in fractional short-term interest rate diffusions," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 109-126.
  51. Sánchez Granero, M.A. & Trinidad Segovia, J.E. & García Pérez, J., 2008. "Some comments on Hurst exponent and the long memory processes on capital markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(22), pages 5543-5551.
  52. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil‐Alana, 2014. "Long‐Run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 147-161, March.
  53. Marco R Barassi & Dayong Zhang, 2009. "Fractional Integration and Cointegration: Testing the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Discussion Papers 09-17, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  54. Eduardo Abi Jaber, 2022. "The Laplace transform of the integrated Volterra Wishart process," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 309-348, January.
  55. Nesmith Travis D & Jones Barry E, 2008. "Linear Cointegration of Nonlinear Time Series with an Application to Interest Rate Dynamics," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, March.
  56. Esben Hoeg & Per Frederiksen, 2006. "The Fractional OU Process: Term Structure Theory and Application," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 194, Society for Computational Economics.
  57. Høg, Espen P. & Frederiksen, Per H., 2006. "The Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process: Term Structure Theory and Application," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2006-01, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  58. Carlos P. Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2014. "Long Memory in Angolan Macroeconomic Series: Mean Reversion versus Explosive Behaviour," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 59-73, March.
  59. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Long memory in the U.S. interest rate," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 265-276.
  60. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2007. "Time-varying long-range dependence in US interest rates," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 360-367.
  61. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Modelling the U.S. interest rate in terms of I(d) statistical models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 475-486, September.
  62. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks," Economics Working Papers 956, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  63. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2000. "Estimating the differencing parameter via the partial autocorrelation function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 365-381, August.
  64. Jin-Chuan Duan & Kris Jacobs, 2001. "Short and Long Memory in Equilibrium Interest Rate Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-22, CIRANO.
  65. Philipp Harms & David Stefanovits, 2015. "Affine representations of fractional processes with applications in mathematical finance," Papers 1510.04061, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
  66. Hashmat Khan, 2000. "Price Stickiness, Inflation, and Output Dynamics: A Cross-Country Analysis," Staff Working Papers 00-13, Bank of Canada.
  67. Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2010. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation Of Fractional Integration With Unknown Mean And Time Trend," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 501-540, April.
  68. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2009. "Testing for long-range dependence in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1559-1573.
  69. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2010. "Fluctuation dynamics in US interest rates and the role of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 163-169, September.
  70. Luis Gil-Alana, 2003. "Strong dependence in the real interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 119-124.
  71. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Youngcheol Shin, 2011. "Shifting Preferences at the Fed: Evidence from Rolling Dynamic Multipliers and Impulse Response Analysis," Working Papers 2011-057, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
  72. Rinke, Saskia & Busch, Marie & Leschinski, Christian, 2017. "Long Memory, Breaks, and Trends: On the Sources of Persistence in Inflation Rates," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-584, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  73. Abbritti, Mirko & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis & Moreno, Antonio, 2023. "Term premium in a fractionally cointegrated yield curve," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  74. Ramos-Requena, J.P. & Trinidad-Segovia, J.E. & Sánchez-Granero, M.A., 2017. "Introducing Hurst exponent in pair trading," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 488(C), pages 39-45.
  75. Goliński, Adam & Spencer, Peter, 2017. "The advantages of using excess returns to model the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 163-181.
  76. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June.
  77. Jensen Mark J., 1999. "An Approximate Wavelet MLE of Short- and Long-Memory Parameters," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-17, January.
  78. A. Gómez-Águila & J. E. Trinidad-Segovia & M. A. Sánchez-Granero, 2022. "Improvement in Hurst exponent estimation and its application to financial markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, December.
  79. Lee, Sangwook & Kim, Min Jae & Kim, Soo Yong, 2011. "Interest rates factor model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(13), pages 2531-2548.
  80. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2011. "Inflation in South Africa. A long memory approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 207-209, June.
  81. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, "undated". "Moving Endpoints in Macrofinance," Computing in Economics and Finance 1996 _058, Society for Computational Economics.
  82. Daniela Osterrieder & Peter C. Schotman, 2012. "The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums," CREATES Research Papers 2012-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  83. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1999. "Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1553-1607, October.
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  86. Eduardo Abi Jaber, 2022. "The Laplace transform of the integrated Volterra Wishart process," Post-Print hal-02367200, HAL.
  87. Hufei Li & Shaojuan Ma, 2023. "The Evolution of Probability Density Function for Power System Excited by Fractional Gaussian Noise," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-16, June.
  88. López-García, M.N. & Trinidad-Segovia, J.E. & Sánchez-Granero, M.A. & Pouchkarev, I., 2021. "Extending the Fama and French model with a long term memory factor," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(2), pages 421-426.
  89. Selçuk BAYRACI, 2017. "Long-memory, self-similarity and scaling of the long-term government bond yields: Evidence from Turkey and the USA," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(612), A), pages 71-82, Autumn.
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  91. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
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  94. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:67:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  95. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Term structure views of monetary policy under alternative models of agent expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 149-184, January.
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