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Cointegrated Dynamics for A Generalized Long Memory Process: An Application to Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Manabu Asai

    (Faculty of Economics, Soka University, Japan.)

  • Shelton Peiris

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney, Australia .)

  • Michael McAleer

    ( Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan and Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain And Institute of Advanced Sciences Yokohama National University, Japan.)

  • David E. Allen

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney, Australia, Department of Finance, Asia University, Taiwan, and School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University, Western Australia, Department of Finance, Asia University, Taiwan.)

Abstract

Recent developments in econometric methods enable estimation and testing of general long memory process, which include the general Gegenbauer process. This paper considers the error correction model for a vector general long memory process, which encompasses the vector autoregressive fractionally-integrated moving average and general Gegenbauer process. We modify the tests for unit roots and cointegration, based on the concept of heterogeneous autoregression. The Monte Carlo simulations show that the finite sample properties of the modified tests are satisfactory, while the conventional tests suffer from size distortion. Empirical results for interest rates series for the U.S.A. and Australia indicate that: (1) the modified unit root test detected unit roots for all series, (2) after differencing, all series favour the general Gegenbauer process, (3) the modified test for cointegration found only two cointegrating vectors, and (4) the zero interest rate policy in the U.S.A. has no effect on the cointegrating vector for the two countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Manabu Asai & Shelton Peiris & Michael McAleer & David E. Allen, 2018. "Cointegrated Dynamics for A Generalized Long Memory Process: An Application to Interest Rates," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2018-22, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1822
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    1. Paul M. Beaumont & Aaron D. Smallwood, 2024. "Conditional sum of squares estimation of k-factor GARMA models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 108(3), pages 501-543, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long Memory Processes; Gegenbauer Process; Dickey-Fuller Tests; Cointegration; Differencing; Interest Rates.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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