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New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & John M. Roberts, 2016. "When Can Trend-Cycle Decompositions Be Trusted?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-099, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2014. "Does Output Gap, Labour's Share or Unemployment Rate Drive Inflation?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 715-726, October.
  3. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Key Unobservables: Evidence from Large Industrial and Selected Inflation-Targeting Countries," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 9, pages 285-370, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Angelia L. Grant & Joshua C.C. Chan, 2017. "A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend‐Cycle Decompositions of Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 525-552, March.
  5. Berger, Tino & Kempa, Bernd, 2012. "Taylor rules and the Canadian–US equilibrium exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1060-1075.
  6. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2020. "Estimates of r* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 2020. "Bayesian analysis of output gap in Barbados," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
  8. Camilla Mastromarco & Léopold Simar & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2021. "Predicting recessions with a frontier measure of output gap: an application to Italian economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(6), pages 2701-2740, June.
  9. Fokin, Nikita, 2021. "The importance of modeling structural breaks in forecasting Russian GDP," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 5-29.
  10. Castillo, Luis & Florián, David, 2019. "Measuring the output gap, potential output growth and natural interest rate from a semi-structural dynamic model for Peru," Working Papers 2019-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  11. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-010 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Mastromarco, Camilla & Simar, Leopold & Wilson, Paul, 2019. "Predicting Recessions: A New Measure of Output Gap as Predictor," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2019023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
  13. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
  14. R. Basselier & G. Langenus & P. Reusens, 2017. "The potential growth of the Belgian economy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 37-53, september.
  15. Michael Dueker & Laura E Jackson & Michael T Owyang & Martin Sola, 2023. "A time-varying threshold STAR model with applications," Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2, pages 63-98.
  16. Daniela Milučká, 2014. "Inflation dynamics in the Czech Republic: Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," International Journal of Economic Sciences, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 53-70.
  17. Xiaoshan Chen & Terence Mills, 2012. "Measuring the Euro area output gap using a multivariate unobserved components model containing phase shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 671-692, October.
  18. Mardi Dungey & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jing Tian, 2017. "Forecasting output gaps in the G-7 countries: the role of correlated innovations and structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(45), pages 4554-4566, September.
  19. Berger, Tino & Kempa, Bernd, 2014. "Time-varying equilibrium rates in small open economies: Evidence for Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 203-214.
  20. Hilde Bjørnland & Kai Leitemo & Junior Maih, 2011. "Estimating the natural rates in a simple New Keynesian framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 755-777, May.
  21. Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Serhat Solmaz, 2013. "Inflation and Output Comovement in the Euro Area: Love at Second Sight?," Working Papers 2013/07, Czech National Bank.
  22. Nalan Baştürk & Cem Çakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2014. "Posterior‐Predictive Evidence On Us Inflation Using Extended New Keynesian Phillips Curve Models With Non‐Filtered Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 1164-1182, November.
  23. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2017. "GDP Trend-cycle Decompositions Using State-level Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-051, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  25. Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2014. "Trend-cycle decomposition for Peruvian GDP: application of an alternative method," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-44, December.
  26. Cui, Wei & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Wang, Weining, 2015. "Estimation of NAIRU with inflation expectation data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-010, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  27. Cui, W. & Härdle, W.K. & Wang, W., 2016. "Estimation of NAIRU with In ation Expectation Data," Working Papers 16/05, Department of Economics, City University London.
  28. González-Astudillo, Manuel, 2019. "An output gap measure for the euro area: Exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  29. James McNeil & Gregor W. Smith, 2023. "The All‐Gap Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 269-282, April.
  30. Schleer, Frauke & Kappler, Marcus, 2014. "The Phillips Curve: (In)stability, the role of credit, and implications for potential output measurement," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-067, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  31. Kishor, N. Kundan & Pratap, Bhanu, 2023. "The Role of Inflation Targeting in Anchoring Long-Run Inflation Expectations: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 118951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2014. "Switching impacts of the output gap on inflation: Evidence from Canada, the UK and the US," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 270-285.
  33. Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer & Philipp Piribauer, 2020. "A multi‐country dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility for euro area business cycle analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 911-926, September.
  34. Tara M. Sinclair, 2009. "The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 529-542, March.
  35. Emilie Jašová, 2009. "Similarities and Differences in Development of Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment and Economic Cycle in Selected Countries in Central Europe by 2008 [Podobnosti a rozdíly ve vývoji mír," Současná Evropa, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(1), pages 35-51.
  36. Abbas Valadkhani, 2015. "Asymmetric size-dependent effects of the output gap on inflation: US evidence from the last half a century," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3525-3539, July.
  37. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2010. "Using A Forward-Looking Phillips Curve to Estimate the Output Gap in Peru," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 6(1-2), pages 1-13, April.
  38. Eva M. Köberl & Sarah M. Lein, 2011. "The NIRCU and the Phillips curve: an approach based on micro data," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 673-694, May.
  39. Ashima Goyal & Gagan Goel, 2021. "Correlated Shocks, Hysteresis, and the Sacrifice Ratio: Evidence from India," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2929-2945, August.
  40. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2016. "Estimating the Indian natural interest rate: A semi-structural approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 141-153.
  41. Andrew Harvey, 2011. "Modelling the Phillips curve with unobserved components," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 7-17.
  42. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2016. "The roles of inflation expectations, core inflation, and slack in real-time inflation forecasting," Working Papers 1613, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  43. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.
  44. Fatás, Antonio & Singh, Sanjay R., 2024. "Supply or demand? Policy makers’ confusion in the presence of hysteresis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  45. Andrea Beccarini, 2024. "Testing omitted variables in VARs," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 3093-3109, July.
  46. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani, 2013. "Autoregression-based estimation of the new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 561-570.
  47. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2022. "Finding a Role for Slack in Real-Time Inflation Forecasting," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 245-282, June.
  48. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve : lessons from single-equation econometric estimation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 94(Fall), pages 361-395.
  49. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Phillips Curve Models with Non-Filtered Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-011/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  50. Vicente da Gama Machado & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2014. "Phillips curve in Brazil: an unobserved components approach," Working Papers Series 354, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  51. Arabinda Basistha, 2009. "Hours per capita and productivity: evidence from correlated unobserved components models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 187-206.
  52. Romain Duval & Lukas Vogel, 2008. "Economic resilience to shocks: The role of structural policies," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2008(1), pages 1-38.
  53. Yuemei Ji, 2018. "Why is there so much Inertia in Inflation and Output? A Behavioral Explanation," CESifo Working Paper Series 7181, CESifo.
  54. Manuel González-Astudillo & John M. Roberts, 2022. "When are trend–cycle decompositions of GDP reliable?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2417-2460, May.
  55. repec:wvu:wpaper:06-02 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. Ramis Khabibullin, 2019. "What measures of real economic activity slack are helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps50, Bank of Russia.
  57. Petre Caraiani, 2009. "An Estimation of Output Gap in Romanian Economy Using the DSGE Approach," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(4), pages 366-379.
  58. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2011. "Output gap measurement and the New Keynesian Phillips curve for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2462-2468.
  59. T. Berger, 2008. "Estimating Europe’s Natural Rates from a forward-looking Phillips curve," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/498, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  60. Mustafa Kocoglu, 2023. "Drivers of inflation in Turkey: a new Keynesian Phillips curve perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2825-2853, August.
  61. Hang Pham, 2020. "Estimating the Output Gap for Emerging Countries: Evidence from Five Southeast Asia Countries," International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Online Academic Press, vol. 7(2), pages 61-73.
  62. Božena Kadeřábková & Emilie Jašová, 2011. "Analýza ukazatele NAIRU na sektorové úrovni [Analysis of the Indicator NAIRU on the Sector Level]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(4), pages 508-525.
  63. Marfatia Hardik A., 2018. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the UK: evidence from the inflation-indexed bonds market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, January.
  64. Michael O’Grady, 2019. "Estimating the Output, Inflation and Unemployment Gaps in Ireland using Bayesian Model Averaging," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 35-76.
  65. repec:wvu:wpaper:05-07 is not listed on IDEAS
  66. E. A. Orlova & D. R. Belousov & D. I. Galimov, 2020. "A Model of Potential GDP and Output Gap for the Russian Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 171-180, March.
  67. Petar Soric, 2024. "The euro and inflation in Croatia: much ado about nothing?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 48(1), pages 1-37.
  68. Adam Geršl & Martina Jašová & Jan Zápal, 2014. "Fiscal Councils and Economic Volatility," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(3), pages 190-212, June.
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