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Estimation of NAIRU with inflation expectation data

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  • Cui, Wei
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • Wang, Weining

Abstract

Estimating natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is important for understanding the joint dynamics of unemployment, inflation, and inflation expectation. However, existing literature falls short in endogenizing inflation expectation together with NAIRU in a model consistent way. We develop and estimate a structural model with forward and backward looking Phillips curve. Inflation expectation is treated as a function of state variables and we use survey data as its observations. We find out that the estimated NAIRU using our methodology tracks the unemployment process closely except for the high inflation period around 1970. Moreover, the estimated Bayesian credible sets are narrower and our model leads to better inflation and unemployment forecasts. These results suggest that monetary policy was very effective during the sample periods and there was not much room for policy improvement.

Suggested Citation

  • Cui, Wei & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Wang, Weining, 2015. "Estimation of NAIRU with inflation expectation data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-010, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2015-010
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    Cited by:

    1. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    2. Dana Kloudová, 2016. "Does Using Nairu In The Production Function Influence Estimation Of Potential Output And Output Gap?," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 5(2), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2018. "Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(42), pages 4540-4555, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAIRU; Inflation Expectation;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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