IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sorede/v31y2020i2d10.1134_s1075700720020070.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Model of Potential GDP and Output Gap for the Russian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • E. A. Orlova

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • D. R. Belousov

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • D. I. Galimov

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

— The paper considers the model that estimates the potential GDP and output gap in the economy of Russia in the light of specific features. The model allows us not only to build forecasts of these indicators, but also to obtain the breakdown of unobservable variables to show the contribution of observed factors. Thus, potential GDP is decomposed into the contribution of labor, funds and total factor productivity. The output gap indicator distinguishes foreign trade, conjunctural components and the element explained by monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • E. A. Orlova & D. R. Belousov & D. I. Galimov, 2020. "A Model of Potential GDP and Output Gap for the Russian Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 171-180, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:31:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1134_s1075700720020070
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700720020070
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1134/S1075700720020070
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1134/S1075700720020070?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March.
    2. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    3. Kuboniwa, Masaaki & 久保庭, 眞彰 & クボニワ, マサアキ, 2011. "Russian Growth Path and TFP Changes in Light of the Estimation of Production Function using Quarterly Data," RRC Working Paper Series 30, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating?," IMF Working Papers 2006/068, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Sergey Drobyshevsky & Maria Kazakova & Michael Alexeev, 2016. "Decomposition of Russia's GDP Growth Rates," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 167P, pages 123-123.
    6. Michael Alexeev & Shlomo Weber, 2013. "Russian economy, the," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Vashchelyuk, N.V. (Ващелюк, Н.В.) & Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2016. "Determination of the Output Gap for the Russian Economy [Определение Разрыва Выпуска Для Российской Экономики]," Working Papers 2137, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    8. Natalia Akindinova & Kseniya Chekina & Alexandr Yarkin, 2017. "Measuring the Contribution of Demographic Change and Human Capital to Economic Growth in Russia," HSE Economic Journal, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 533-561.
    9. Masaaki Kuboniwa, 2011. "The Russian growth path and TFP changes in light of estimation of the production function using quarterly data," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 311-325.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Artur R. Sharafutdinov, 2023. "Output Gap in Russian Economy: Estimate Based on the IMF’s Multivariate Filter [Разрыв Выпуска В Российской Экономике: Оценка На Основе Многомерного Фильтра Мвф]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 4, pages 15-23, April.
    2. Margarita Lyakhnova & Yuri Kolenko, 2024. "Nowcasting the Output Gap in Russia Using Enterprise Monitoring Data," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(2), pages 26-53, June.
    3. Artur R. Sharafutdinov, 2023. "Разрыв Выпуска В Российской Экономике: Оценка На Основе Многомерного Фильтра Мвф," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 4, pages 15-23, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcel P. Timmer & Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2014. "Is Mining Fuelling Long-Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends Since 1995," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S2), pages 398-422, November.
    2. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-137 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Brock, Gregory, 2015. "The informal economy of Rostov Oblast on the eve of the Ukrainian refugee crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 789-803.
    4. Ville Kaitila, 2016. "GDP growth in Russia: different capital stock series and the terms of trade," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 129-145, April.
    5. Alexander S. Skorobogatov, 2016. "Spatial Equilibrium Approach to the Analysis of Income Differentials Across Russian Cities," HSE Working papers WP BRP 149/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    6. Brock, Gregory, 2019. "A remote sensing look at the economy of a Russian region (Rostov) adjacent to the Ukrainian crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 416-431.
    7. Fokin, Nikita, 2021. "The importance of modeling structural breaks in forecasting Russian GDP," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 5-29.
    8. Kuboniwa, Masaaki, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the impact of oil prices on oil-rich emerging economies in the Pacific Rim," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 328-339.
    9. Skorobogatov, Alexander S., 2018. "Why do newer cities promise higher wages in Russia?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 16-34.
    10. Daniela Milučká, 2014. "Inflation dynamics in the Czech Republic: Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," International Journal of Economic Sciences, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 53-70.
    11. World Bank & National Research University – Higher School of Economics, 2013. "Developing Skills for Innovative Growth in the Russian Federation," World Bank Publications - Reports 16100, The World Bank Group.
    12. Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2021. "Accounting for growth in the USSR and Russia, 1950–2012," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 870-894, July.
    13. Voskoboynikov, Ilya & Solanko, Laura, 2014. "When high growth is not enough: Rethinking Russia's pre-crisis economic performance," BOFIT Policy Briefs 6/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    14. Helena Schweiger & Alexander Stepanov & Paolo Zacchia, 2022. "The Long-Run Effects of R&D Place-Based Policies: Evidence from Russian Science Cities," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 322-351, August.
    15. Mustafa Kocoglu, 2023. "Drivers of inflation in Turkey: a new Keynesian Phillips curve perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2825-2853, August.
    16. Korhonen, Iikka, 2015. "How fast can Russia grow?," BOFIT Policy Briefs 10/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    17. Gregory Brock, 2016. "Creative destruction on the Chechen frontier?," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 220-231, April.
    18. Kuboniwa, Masaaki, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Prices, Total Factor Productivity and Institutional Weakness on Russia’s Declining Growth," RRC Working Paper Series 49, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    19. Korhonen, Iikka, 2021. "Russia's growth potential post-COVID-19," BOFIT Policy Briefs 9/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    20. Dmitriy Aleksandrovich Izotov, 2018. "Economic Growth and the Trade of Russian Regions," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 4, pages 92-114.
    21. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:31:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1134_s1075700720020070. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.