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Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method

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  1. Maurizio Zollo, 2009. "Superstitious Learning with Rare Strategic Decisions: Theory and Evidence from Corporate Acquisitions," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(5), pages 894-908, October.
  2. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment," MPRA Paper 26384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Windschitl, Paul D. & Scherer, Aaron M. & Smith, Andrew R. & Rose, Jason P., 2013. "Why so confident? The influence of outcome desirability on selective exposure and likelihood judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 73-86.
  4. Whitman, Jennifer C. & Woodward, Todd S., 2012. "Self-selection bias in hypothesis comparison," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 216-225.
  5. Nicolao Bonini & Stefania Pighin & Enrico Rettore & Lucia Savadori & Federico Schena & Sara Tonini & Paolo Tosi, 2019. "Overconfident people are more exposed to “black swan” events: a case study of avalanche risk," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1443-1467, October.
  6. McKenzie, Craig R. M., 1997. "Underweighting Alternatives and Overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 141-160, August.
  7. Brenner, Lyle A., 2003. "A random support model of the calibration of subjective probabilities," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 87-110, January.
  8. David Tannenbaum & Craig R. Fox & Gülden Ülkümen, 2017. "Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 497-518, February.
  9. Carnevale, Jessica J. & Inbar, Yoel & Lerner, Jennifer S., 2012. "Individual Differences in Need for Cognition and Decision-Making Competence among Leaders," Scholarly Articles 9647370, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  10. Aukutsionek, Sergei P. & Belianin, Alexis V., 2001. "Quality of forecasts and business performance: A survey study of Russian managers," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 661-692, October.
  11. David Tannenbaum & Craig R. Fox & Gülden Ülkümen, 2017. "Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 497-518, February.
  12. Francesco Castellaneta & Oliver Gottschalg & Aleksandra Kacperczyk & Mike Wright, 2022. "Experience as Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde: Performance Outcome Delays in the Private Equity Context," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(6), pages 1359-1385, September.
  13. Divesh S. Sharma & Errol R. Iselin, 2003. "The Relative Relevance of Cash Flow and Accrual Information for Solvency Assessments: A Multi‐Method Approach," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(7‐8), pages 1115-1140, September.
  14. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment," MPRA Paper 26384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Qiao, Lu & Adegbite, Emmanuel & Nguyen, Tam Huy, 2022. "Chief financial officer overconfidence and stock price crash risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  16. Kausel, Edgar E. & Culbertson, Satoris S. & Madrid, Hector P., 2016. "Overconfidence in personnel selection: When and why unstructured interview information can hurt hiring decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 27-44.
  17. Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E. & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Pollock, Andrew C., 1997. "Currency forecasting: an investigation of extrapolative judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-526, December.
  18. Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex & Thomson, Mary E. & Onkal, Dilek, 2005. "Performance evaluation of judgemental directional exchange rate predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 473-489.
  19. Sieck, Winston R. & Merkle, Edgar C. & Van Zandt, Trisha, 2007. "Option fixation: A cognitive contributor to overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 68-83, May.
  20. Larrick, Richard P. & Burson, Katherine A. & Soll, Jack B., 2007. "Social comparison and confidence: When thinking you're better than average predicts overconfidence (and when it does not)," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 76-94, January.
  21. Roy M. Poses & Randall D. Cebul & Robert M. Centor, 1988. "Eualuating Physicians' Probabilistic Judgments," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 8(4), pages 233-240, December.
  22. Lucrezia Fattobene & Marco Caiffa, 2016. "Sitting on the Board or Sitting on the Throne? Evidence of Boards' Overconfidence from the Italian Market," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 45(2), pages 235-269, July.
  23. Önkal, Dilek & Zeynep Sayım, K. & Lawrence, Michael, 2012. "Wisdom of group forecasts: Does role-playing play a role?," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 693-702.
  24. Onkal, Dilek & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 1995. "Effects of feedback on probabilistic forecasts of stock prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 307-319, June.
  25. Onkal, Dilek & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 1996. "Effects of task format on probabilistic forecasting of stock prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 9-24, March.
  26. Bonaccio, Silvia & Dalal, Reeshad S., 2006. "Advice taking and decision-making: An integrative literature review, and implications for the organizational sciences," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 127-151, November.
  27. Browne, Glenn J. & Curley, Shawn P. & Benson, P. George, 1999. "The Effects of Subject-Defined Categories on Judgmental Accuracy in Confidence Assessment Tasks, , , , , , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 134-154, November.
  28. Simnett, Roger, 1996. "The effect of information selection, information processing and task complexity on predictive accuracy of auditors," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 21(7-8), pages 699-719.
  29. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
  30. Yaniv, Ilan & Milyavsky, Maxim, 2007. "Using advice from multiple sources to revise and improve judgments," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 104-120, May.
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