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Quality of forecasts and business performance: A survey study of Russian managers

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  • Aukutsionek, Sergei P.
  • Belianin, Alexis V.

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  • Aukutsionek, Sergei P. & Belianin, Alexis V., 2001. "Quality of forecasts and business performance: A survey study of Russian managers," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 661-692, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:22:y:2001:i:5:p:661-692
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    1. Ronis, David L. & Yates, J. Frank, 1987. "Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 193-218, October.
    2. Klayman, Joshua & Soll, Jack B. & Gonzalez-Vallejo, Claudia & Barlas, Sema, 1999. "Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask, , , , , , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 216-247, September.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 283-330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David K., 1999. "An Easier Way to Calibrate," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 131-137, October.
    5. Allwood, Carl Martin & Granhag, Par Anders, 1996. "Realism in Confidence Judgments as a Function of Working in Dyads or Alone," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 277-289, June.
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    7. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud & Smorodinsky, Rann, 1999. "Calibrated Forecasting and Merging," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 151-169, October.
    8. Yates, J. Frank & Lee, Ju-Whei & Shinotsuka, Hiromi & Patalano, Andrea L. & Sieck, Winston R., 1998. "Cross-Cultural Variations in Probability Judgment Accuracy: Beyond General Knowledge Overconfidence?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 89-117, May.
    9. Soll, Jack B., 1996. "Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 117-137, February.
    10. Treadwell, Jonathan R. & Nelson, Thomas O., 1996. "Availability of Information and the Aggregation of Confidence in Prior Decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 13-27, October.
    11. Yates, J. Frank & Lee, Ju-Whei & Shinotsuka, Hiromi, 1996. "Beliefs about Overconfidence, Including Its Cross-National Variation," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 138-147, February.
    12. Foster, Dean P. & Vohra, Rakesh V., 1997. "Calibrated Learning and Correlated Equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 40-55, October.
    13. D. Foster & R. Vohra, 2010. "Calibrated Learning and Correlated Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 568, David K. Levine.
    14. Yates, J. Frank & Zhu, Ying & Ronis, David L. & Wang, Deng-Feng & Shinotsuka, Hiromi & Toda, Masanao, 1989. "Probability judgment accuracy: China, Japan, and the United States," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 145-171, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz, 2011. "Financial forecasts during the crisis: Were experts more accurate than laypeople?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 384-390, June.
    2. Zahra Murad & Martin Sefton & Chris Starmer, 2016. "How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 21-46, February.
    3. Andersson, Patric & Ekman, Mattias & Edman, Jan, 2003. "Forecasting the fast and frugal way: A study of performance and information-processing strategies of experts and non-experts when predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2003:9, Stockholm School of Economics.
    4. Kostylev A.O. Skopina L.V., 2016. "Analysis of management quality and management decisions made using the example of russian oil and gas companies," World of economics and management / Vestnik NSU. Series: Social and Economics Sciences, Socionet, vol. 16(1), pages 18-24.
    5. Andersson, Patric & Edman, Jan & Ekman, Mattias, 2005. "Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 565-576.
    6. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.

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