IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v84y2022ics1057521922003143.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Chief financial officer overconfidence and stock price crash risk

Author

Listed:
  • Qiao, Lu
  • Adegbite, Emmanuel
  • Nguyen, Tam Huy

Abstract

Numerous studies have shown the prevalence of overconfidence among Chief Financial Officers (CFOs). Surprisingly, the real effect of CFO overconfidence is under-researched. Using data from a large sample of US-listed firms over the period 1993–2019 and adopting an eclectic theoretical approach, we find that overconfident CFOs are more likely to increase stock price crash risk than non-overconfident CFOs through risk-taking and bad news hoarding. These findings pass a series of robustness tests. Furthermore, departing from most overconfident studies that merely examine one type of top managers (i.e., Chief Executive Officer (CEO)), we consider the influence of CEO and CFO overconfidence jointly. Interestingly, we find that CFO overconfidence outweighs CEO overconfidence in influencing stock price crash risk. Moreover, the overconfidence effect is intensified when overconfident CFOs collaborate with overconfident CEOs, thus raising stock price crash risk. However, stronger governance and a transparent information environment constrain overconfident CFOs' effect on stock price crash risk. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of CFO overconfidence in determining stock return tail risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiao, Lu & Adegbite, Emmanuel & Nguyen, Tam Huy, 2022. "Chief financial officer overconfidence and stock price crash risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:84:y:2022:i:c:s1057521922003143
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102364
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521922003143
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102364?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boochun Jung & Naomi Soderstrom & Yanhua Sunny Yang, 2013. "Earnings Smoothing Activities of Firms to Manage Credit Ratings," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 645-676, June.
    2. Anwer S. Ahmed & Scott Duellman, 2013. "Managerial Overconfidence and Accounting Conservatism," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 1-30, March.
    3. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2001. "Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 345-381, September.
    4. Ronis, David L. & Yates, J. Frank, 1987. "Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 193-218, October.
    5. Bergstresser, Daniel & Philippon, Thomas, 2006. "CEO incentives and earnings management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 511-529, June.
    6. Hall, Brian J. & Murphy, Kevin J., 2002. "Stock options for undiversified executives," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-42, February.
    7. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2013. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: An Updated Survey," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 357-424, Elsevier.
    8. Feng, Mei & Ge, Weili & Luo, Shuqing & Shevlin, Terry, 2011. "Why do CFOs become involved in material accounting manipulations?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 21-36.
    9. Hutton, Amy P. & Marcus, Alan J. & Tehranian, Hassan, 2009. "Opaque financial reports, R2, and crash risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 67-86, October.
    10. Alexander Bleck & Xuewen Liu, 2007. "Market Transparency and the Accounting Regime," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 229-256, May.
    11. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    12. Panayiotis C. Andreou & Christodoulos Louca & Andreas P. Petrou, 2017. "CEO Age and Stock Price Crash Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 1287-1325.
    13. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
    14. Lucian Bebchuk & Alma Cohen & Allen Ferrell, 2009. "What Matters in Corporate Governance?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 783-827, February.
    15. Kim, Yongtae & Li, Haidan & Li, Siqi, 2014. "Corporate social responsibility and stock price crash risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.
    16. Niamh M. Brennan & Jill Solomon, 2008. "Corporate governance, accountability and mechanisms of accountability: an overview," Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 21(7), pages 885-906, September.
    17. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2015. "Behavioral CEOs: The Role of Managerial Overconfidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 37-60, Fall.
    18. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    19. Friedman, Henry L., 2014. "Implications of power: When the CEO can pressure the CFO to bias reports," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 117-141.
    20. Kim, Jeong-Bon & Li, Yinghua & Zhang, Liandong, 2011. "CFOs versus CEOs: Equity incentives and crashes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 713-730, September.
    21. Itzhak Ben-David & John R. Graham, 2013. "Managerial Miscalibration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1547-1584.
    22. repec:eme:aaaj00:09513570810907401 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Terry A. Baker & Thomas J. Lopez & Austin L. Reitenga & George W. Ruch, 2019. "The influence of CEO and CFO power on accruals and real earnings management," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 325-345, January.
    24. Kim, Jeong-Bon & Li, Leye & Lu, Louise Yi & Yu, Yangxin, 2016. "Financial statement comparability and expected crash risk," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 294-312.
    25. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
    26. Anand M. Goel & Anjan V. Thakor, 2008. "Overconfidence, CEO Selection, and Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2737-2784, December.
    27. Jeong†Bon Kim & Liandong Zhang, 2014. "Financial Reporting Opacity and Expected Crash Risk: Evidence from Implied Volatility Smirks," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 851-875, September.
    28. Efraim Benmelech & Eugene Kandel & Pietro Veronesi, 2010. "Stock-Based Compensation and CEO (Dis)Incentives," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1769-1820.
    29. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Puri, Manju, 2013. "Managerial attitudes and corporate actions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 103-121.
    30. repec:eme:aaaj00:09513570810907456 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Fu, Xi & Zhang, Zhifang, 2019. "CFO cultural background and stock price crash risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 74-93.
    32. Loureiro, Gilberto & Silva, Sónia, 2022. "Earnings management and stock price crashes post U.S. cross-delistings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    33. Jeong†Bon Kim & Liandong Zhang, 2016. "Accounting Conservatism and Stock Price Crash Risk: Firm†level Evidence," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 412-441, March.
    34. Li, Yiwei & Zeng, Yeqin, 2019. "The impact of top executive gender on asset prices: Evidence from stock price crash risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 528-550.
    35. (Xuefeng) Jiang, John & Petroni, Kathy R. & Yanyan Wang, Isabel, 2010. "CFOs and CEOs: Who have the most influence on earnings management?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 513-526, June.
    36. Tien-Shih Hsieh & Jean C. Bedard & Karla M. Johnstone, 2014. "CEO Overconfidence and Earnings Management During Shifting Regulatory Regimes," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(9-10), pages 1243-1268, November.
    37. Al Mamun, Md & Balachandran, Balasingham & Duong, Huu Nhan, 2020. "Powerful CEOs and stock price crash risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    38. Kai Li & Xinlei Zhao, 2008. "Asymmetric Information and Dividend Policy," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 673-694, December.
    39. Lin, Chih-Yung & Chen, Yehning & Ho, Po-Hsin & Yen, Ju-Fang, 2020. "CEO overconfidence and bank loan contracting," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    40. Roman Lanis & Grant Richardson & Chelsea Liu & Ross McClure, 2019. "The Impact of Corporate Tax Avoidance on Board of Directors and CEO Reputation," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 463-498, December.
    41. Hanlon, Michelle & Heitzman, Shane, 2010. "A review of tax research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 127-178, December.
    42. Callen, Jeffrey L. & Fang, Xiaohua, 2015. "Religion and Stock Price Crash Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(1-2), pages 169-195, April.
    43. Huang, Ronghong & Tan, Kelvin Jui Keng & Faff, Robert W., 2016. "CEO overconfidence and corporate debt maturity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 93-110.
    44. Campbell, T. Colin & Gallmeyer, Michael & Johnson, Shane A. & Rutherford, Jessica & Stanley, Brooke W., 2011. "CEO optimism and forced turnover," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 695-712, September.
    45. Chen, Yangyang & Fan, Qingliang & Yang, Xin & Zolotoy, Leon, 2021. "CEO early-life disaster experience and stock price crash risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    46. Jeong†Bon Kim & Zheng Wang & Liandong Zhang, 2016. "CEO Overconfidence and Stock Price Crash Risk," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 1720-1749, December.
    47. Mitchell J. Stein, 2008. "Beyond the boardroom: governmental perspectives on corporate governance," Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 21(7), pages 1001-1025, September.
    48. Callen, Jeffrey L. & Fang, Xiaohua, 2015. "Short interest and stock price crash risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 181-194.
    49. Shahab, Yasir & Ntim, Collins G. & Ullah, Farid & Yugang, Chen & Ye, Zhiwei, 2020. "CEO power and stock price crash risk in China: Do female directors' critical mass and ownership structure matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    50. Richardson, Vernon J, 2000. "Information Asymmetry and Earnings Management: Some Evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 325-347, December.
    51. Kim, Jeong-Bon & Li, Yinghua & Zhang, Liandong, 2011. "Corporate tax avoidance and stock price crash risk: Firm-level analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 639-662, June.
    52. Weili GE & Dawn Matsumoto & Jenny Li Zhang, 2011. "Do CFOs Have Style? An Empirical Investigation of the Effect of Individual CFOs on Accounting Practices," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 1141-1179, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Weizheng & Chen, Shuning & Jiao, Yuqing & Feng, Xu, 2024. "How does ESG constrain corporate earnings management? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    2. Liu, Yujie & Liu, Hangbo & Li, Jianhong, 2023. "Tax planning ability and the CFO's compensation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    3. Zhu, Changchun & Li, Na & Ma, Jing, 2024. "Impact of CEO overconfidence on enterprise digital transformation: Moderating effect based on digital finance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Le, Anh-Tuan & Doan, Anh-Tuan & Lin, Kun-Li, 2024. "CEO overconfidence and the informativeness of bank stock prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Gurdgiev, Constantin & Ni, Qiuxin, 2023. "Board diversity: Moderating effects of CEO overconfidence on firm financing decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    6. Bouteska, Ahmed & Harasheh, Murad & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "Revisiting overconfidence in investment decision-making: Further evidence from the U.S. market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. Ahmad, Sardar & Ullah, Subhan & Akbar, Saeed & Kodwani, Devendra & Brahma, Sanjukta, 2024. "The impact of compliance, board committees and insider CEOs on firm survival during crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kim, Jeong-Bon & Liao, Shushu & Liu, Yangke, 2021. "Married CEOs and Stock Price Crash Risk," QBS Working Paper Series 2021/09, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    2. Li, Yiwei & Zeng, Yeqin, 2019. "The impact of top executive gender on asset prices: Evidence from stock price crash risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 528-550.
    3. An, Suwei, 2023. "Essays on incentive contracts, M&As, and firm risk," Other publications TiSEM dd97d2f5-1c9d-47c5-ba62-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Jiang, Kangqi & Du, Xinyi & Chen, Zhongfei, 2022. "Firms' digitalization and stock price crash risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Chen, Yangyang & Fan, Qingliang & Yang, Xin & Zolotoy, Leon, 2021. "CEO early-life disaster experience and stock price crash risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Richardson, Grant & Obaydin, Ivan & Liu, Chelsea, 2022. "The effect of accounting fraud on future stock price crash risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Al Mamun, Md & Balachandran, Balasingham & Duong, Huu Nhan, 2020. "Powerful CEOs and stock price crash risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Chowdhury, Hasibul & Hodgson, Allan & Pathan, Shams, 2020. "Do external labour market incentives constrain bad news hoarding? The CEO's industry tournament and crash risk reduction," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Lu Qiao & Emmanuel Adegbite & Tam Huy Nguyen, 2024. "CFO overconfidence and conditional accounting conservatism," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 1-37, January.
    10. Dan Hu & Eunju Lee & Bingxin Li, 2023. "Trade secrets protection and stock price crash risk," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 395-421, May.
    11. Choi, Young Mok & Park, Kunsu, 2022. "Zero-leverage policy and stock price crash risk: Evidence from Korea," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Zaman, Rashid & Atawnah, Nader & Haseeb, Muhammad & Nadeem, Muhammad & Irfan, Saadia, 2021. "Does corporate eco-innovation affect stock price crash risk?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    13. Xu, Lin & Rao, Yulei & Cheng, Yingmei & Wang, Jianxin, 2020. "Internal coalition and stock price crash risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Cao, Feng & Zhang, Xueyan & Yuan, Rongli, 2022. "Do geographically nearby major customers mitigate suppliers’ stock price crash risk?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6).
    15. Leilei Gu & Jinyu Liu & Yuchao Peng, 2022. "Locality Stereotype, CEO Trustworthiness and Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from China," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 175(4), pages 773-797, February.
    16. Min Jung Kang & Y. Han (Andy) Kim & Qunfeng Liao, 2020. "Do bankers on the board reduce crash risk?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(3), pages 684-723, June.
    17. Liao, Lin & Sharma, Divesh & Yang, Yitang (Jenny) & Zhao, Rui, 2023. "Adoption and content of key audit matters and stock price crash risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    18. Ni, Xiaoran & Wang, Ye & Yin, David, 2021. "Does Modern Information Technology Attenuate Managerial Information Hoarding? Evidence from the EDGAR Implementation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar & Chowdhury, Hasibul & Han, Hien Duc, 2021. "CEO centrality and stock price crash risk," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    20. Jin, Hong-min & Su, Zhong-qin & Wang, Lu & Xiao, Zuoping, 2022. "Do academic independent directors matter? Evidence from stock price crash risk," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 1129-1148.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:84:y:2022:i:c:s1057521922003143. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.