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Implied exchange rate distributions: evidence from OTC option markets1

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Cited by:

  1. Gabaix, Xavier & Verdelhan, Adrien & Rancière, Romain & Farhi, Emmanuel & Fraiberger, Samuel P., 2009. "Crash Risk in Currency Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 7322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Della Corte, Pasquale & Ramadorai, Tarun & Sarno, Lucio, 2016. "Volatility risk premia and exchange rate predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 21-40.
  3. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "Stochastic skew in currency options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 213-247, October.
  4. Bondarenko, Oleg, 2003. "Estimation of risk-neutral densities using positive convolution approximation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 85-112.
  5. Halil Ibrahim Aydin & Ahmet Degerli & Pinar Ozlu, 2010. "Recovering Risk-Neutral Densities from Exchange Rate Options: Evidence in Turkey (Kur Opsiyonlarindan Riske Duyarsiz Yogunluk Fonksiyonu Cikarimi: Turkiye Ornegi)," Working Papers 1003, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  6. Değerli, Ahmet & Fendoğlu, Salih, 2015. "Reserve option mechanism as a stabilizing policy tool: Evidence from exchange rate expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 166-179.
  7. Bollen, Nicolas P. B & Rasiel, Emma, 2003. "The performance of alternative valuation models in the OTC currency options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 33-64, February.
  8. Jurczenko, Emmanuel & Maillet, Bertrand & Negrea, Bogdan, 2002. "Revisited multi-moment approximate option pricing models: a general comparison (Part 1)," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24950, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  9. Pedro Serrano & Antoni Vaello‐Sebastià & M. Magdalena Vich Llompart, 2024. "International evidence of the forecasting ability of option‐implied distributions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1447-1464, August.
  10. Coutant, Sophie & Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2001. "Reading PIBOR futures options smiles: The 1997 snap election," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1957-1987, November.
  11. Campa, Jose M. & Chang, P. H. Kevin & Refalo, James F., 2002. "An options-based analysis of emerging market exchange rate expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1999," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 227-253, October.
  12. Francis X. Diebold & Jinyong Hahn & Anthony S. Tay, 1998. "Real-Time Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation and Calibration: Monitoring the Risk of High-Frequency Returns on Foreign Exchange," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-05, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  13. Alessandro Beber & Luca Erzegovesi, 1999. "Distribuzioni di probabilità implicite nei prezzi delle opzioni," Alea Tech Reports 008, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008.
  14. Jukka Sihvonen & Sami Vähämaa, 2014. "Forward‐Looking Monetary Policy Rules and Option‐Implied Interest Rate Expectations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 346-373, April.
  15. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  16. Silvia Muzzioli, 2013. "The Information Content of Option-Based Forecasts of Volatility: Evidence from the Italian Stock Market," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-46.
  17. Axarloglou, Kostas & Visvikis, Ilias & Zarkos, Stefanos, 2013. "The time dimension and value of flexibility in resource allocation: The case of the maritime industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 35-48.
  18. Perotti, Enrico & Driessen, Joost, 2004. "Confidence Building on Euro Conversion: Theory and Evidence from Currency Options," CEPR Discussion Papers 4180, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Christian Bauer & Bernhard Herz, 2004. "Technical trading and the volatility of exchange rates," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 399-415.
  20. Monteiro, Ana Margarida & Tutuncu, Reha H. & Vicente, Luis N., 2008. "Recovering risk-neutral probability density functions from options prices using cubic splines and ensuring nonnegativity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 525-542, June.
  21. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
  22. Marian Micu, 2005. "Extracting expectations from currency option prices: a comparison of methods," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 226, Society for Computational Economics.
  23. Taboga, Marco, 2016. "Option-implied probability distributions: How reliable? How jagged?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 453-469.
  24. Arindam Kundu & Sumit Kumar & Nutan Kumar Tomar, 2019. "Option Implied Risk-Neutral Density Estimation: A Robust and Flexible Method," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 705-728, August.
  25. Funke, Michael & Loermann, Julius & Tsang, Andrew, 2017. "The information content in the offshore Renminbi foreign-exchange option market: Analytics and implied USD/CNH densities," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  26. Rompolis, Leonidas S., 2010. "Retrieving risk neutral densities from European option prices based on the principle of maximum entropy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 918-937, December.
  27. Chernov, Mikhail & Graveline, Jeremy & Zviadadze, Irina, 2018. "Crash Risk in Currency Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 137-170, February.
  28. José Manuel Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & James F. Refalo, 1999. "An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1997," Working Papers 99-08, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  29. Markus Hertrich, 2015. "A Cautionary Note on the Put-Call Parity under an Asset Pricing Model with a Lower Reflecting Barrier," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 151(III), pages 227-260, September.
  30. Leonidas S. Rompolis & Elias Tzavalis, 2017. "Retrieving risk neutral moments and expected quadratic variation from option prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 955-1002, May.
  31. Cohen, Ruben D, 2000. "The long-run behavior of the S&P Composite Price Index and its risk premium," MPRA Paper 3192, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. José Manuel Campa & José M. González-Mínguez & María Sebastiá-Barriel, 2006. "Non-linear adjustment of import prices in the European Union," Working Papers 0635, Banco de España.
  33. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Rompolis, Leonidas S., 2012. "Exploring the role of the realized return distribution in the formation of the implied volatility smile," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1028-1044.
  34. Maltritz, Dominik & Eichler, Stefan, 2010. "Currency crisis prediction using ADR market data: An options-based approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 858-884, October.
  35. Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv & Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1553-1595.
  36. Sercan Eraslan, 2019. "Asymmetric arbitrage trading on offshore and onshore renminbi markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1653-1675, November.
  37. Elyas Elyasiani & Silvia Muzzioli & Alessio Ruggieri, 2016. "Forecasting and pricing powers of option-implied tree models: Tranquil and volatile market conditions," Department of Economics 0099, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  38. Silvia Muzzioli, 2013. "The Forecasting Performance of Corridor Implied Volatility in the Italian Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 359-386, March.
  39. Cho-Hoi Hui & Edward Tan, 2016. "Dynamic interactions between government bonds and exchange rate expectations in currency options," Working Papers 182016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  40. Silvia Muzzioli, 2011. "Corridor implied volatility and the variance risk premium in the Italian market," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0030, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
  41. Ascione, Giacomo & Mehrdoust, Farshid & Orlando, Giuseppe & Samimi, Oldouz, 2023. "Foreign Exchange Options on Heston-CIR Model Under Lévy Process Framework," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 446(C).
  42. Corbet, Shaen & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Meegan, Andrew, 2018. "Long-term stock market volatility and the influence of terrorist attacks in Europe," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 118-131.
  43. Vladimir Zdorovenin & Jacques Pézier, 2011. "Does Information Content of Option Prices Add Value for Asset Allocation?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-03, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  44. Alonso, Francisco & Blanco, Roberto & Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo, 2005. "Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  45. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2011. "Spot and forward volatility in foreign exchange," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 496-513, June.
  46. Roy Stein & Yoel Hecht, 2003. "Distribution of the Exchange Rate Implicit in Option Prices: Application to TASE," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2003.05b, Bank of Israel.
  47. Markus Hertrich & Daniel Nathan, 2022. "Foreign Exchange Interventions and their Impact on Expectations: Evidence from the USD/ILS Options Market," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2022.10, Bank of Israel.
  48. Xing Yu & Yang Xiaoping, 2016. "Equilibrium pricing of currency options under a discontinuous model in a two-country economy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 185-198, April.
  49. Michael Funke & Julius Loermann & Richhild Moessner, 2017. "The discontinuation of the EUR/CHF minimum exchange rate in January 2015: was it expected?," BIS Working Papers 652, Bank for International Settlements.
  50. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Pavel Kotyza & Irena Benešová & Adriana Laputková, 2020. "Shaking Stability: COVID-19 Impact on the Visegrad Group Countries’ Financial Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, August.
  51. Vahamaa, Sami, 2005. "Option-implied asymmetries in bond market expectations around monetary policy actions of the ECB," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 23-38.
  52. Morel, Christophe & Teïletche, Jérôme, 2008. "Do interventions in foreign exchange markets modify investors' expectations? The experience of Japan between 1992 and 2004," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-231, March.
  53. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12956 is not listed on IDEAS
  54. Kang, Byung Jin & Kim, Tong Suk, 2006. "Option-implied risk preferences: An extension to wider classes of utility functions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 180-198, May.
  55. Ruijun Bu & Kaddour Hadri, 2005. "Estimating the Risk Neutral Probability Density Functions Natural Spline versus Hypergeometric Approach Using European Style Options," Working Papers 200510, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
  56. Silvia Muzzioli, 2010. "Towards a volatility index for the Italian stock market," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 10091, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
  57. Brandt, Michael W. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2002. "Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 161-210, February.
  58. Driessen, Joost & Perotti, Enrico, 2011. "Confidence building on Euro convergence: Evidence from currency options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 474-491, April.
  59. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 1999. "Option Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Implied Binomial Trees: A Literature Review," MPRA Paper 11634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. repec:zbw:bofitp:2017_015 is not listed on IDEAS
  61. Bogdan Negrea & Bertrand Maillet & Emmanuel Jurczenko, 2002. "Revisited Multi-moment Approximate Option," FMG Discussion Papers dp430, Financial Markets Group.
  62. Wang, Jianxin & Yang, Minxian, 2009. "Asymmetric volatility in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 597-615, October.
  63. Silvia Muzzioli, 2011. "Corridor implied volatility and the variance risk premium in the Italian market," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 11112, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
  64. Rihab Bedoui & Haykel Hamdi, 2010. "Implied Risk-Neutral probability Density functions from options prices : A comparison of estimation methods," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  65. Alexander Veremyev & Peter Tsyurmasto & Stan Uryasev & R. Rockafellar, 2014. "Calibrating probability distributions with convex-concave-convex functions: application to CDO pricing," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 341-364, October.
  66. Giovanni Campisi & Silvia Muzzioli, 2021. "Designing volatility indices for Austria, Finland and Spain," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(3), pages 369-455, September.
  67. Bo Zhao & Stewart Hodges, 2013. "Parametric modeling of implied smile functions: a generalized SVI model," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 53-77, April.
  68. Lanne, Markku & Ahoniemi, Katja, 2008. "Implied Volatility with Time-Varying Regime Probabilities," MPRA Paper 23721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  69. Martin Mandler, 2002. "Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices: Two Case Studies in Market Perceptions of the ECB's Monetary Policy 1999/2000," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(II), pages 165-189, June.
  70. Birke, Melanie & Pilz, Kay F., 2007. "Nonparametric option pricing with no-arbitrage constraints," Technical Reports 2007,30, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  71. Seung Hwan Lee, 2014. "Estimation of risk-neutral measures using quartic B-spline cumulative distribution functions with power tails," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(10), pages 1857-1879, October.
  72. Rihab Bedoui & Haykel Hamdi, 2010. "Implied Risk-Neutral probability Density functions from options prices: A comparison of estimation methods," Working Papers hal-04140913, HAL.
  73. Dupont, Dominique Y., 2001. "Extracting Risk-Neutral Probability Distributions from Option Prices Using Trading Volume as a Filter," Economics Series 104, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  74. Li, Minqiang, 2008. "Price Deviations of S&P 500 Index Options from the Black-Scholes Formula Follow a Simple Pattern," MPRA Paper 11530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  75. Liao, Wen Ju & Sung, Hao-Chang, 2020. "Implied risk aversion and pricing kernel in the FTSE 100 index," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  76. Chernov, Mikhail & Graveline, Jeremy & Zviadadze, Irina, 2012. "Sources of Risk in Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 8745, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  77. Francisco Alonso & Roberto Blanco & Gonzalo Rubio, 2009. "Option-implied preferences adjustments, density forecasts, and the equity risk premium," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 141-164, June.
  78. Luiz Vitiello & Ser-Huang Poon, 2014. "Non-monotonic pricing kernel and an extended class of mixture of distributions for option pricing," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 241-259, July.
  79. Eraslan, Sercan, 2017. "Asymmetric arbitrage trading on offshore and onshore renminbi markets," Discussion Papers 13/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  80. Wan-Ni Lai, 2014. "Comparison of methods to estimate option implied risk-neutral densities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(10), pages 1839-1855, October.
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