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Option Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Implied Binomial Trees: A Literature Review

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  • Jackwerth, Jens Carsten

Abstract

In this selective literature review, we start by observing that in efficient markets, there is information incorporated in option prices that might help us to design option pricing models. To this end, we review the numerous methods of recovering risk-neutral probability distributions from option prices at one particular time to expiration and their applications. Next, we move beyond one time to expiration to the construction of implied binomial trees, which model the stochastic process of the underlying asset. Finally, we describe extensions of implied binomial trees, and other non-parametric methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 1999. "Option Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Implied Binomial Trees: A Literature Review," MPRA Paper 11634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11634
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bookstaber, Richard M & McDonald, James B, 1987. "A General Distribution for Describing Security Price Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 401-424, July.
    2. Bhupinder Bahra, 1997. "Implied risk-neutral probability density functions from option prices: theory and application," Bank of England working papers 66, Bank of England.
    3. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    4. Menachem Brenner & Young Ho Eom, 1997. "No-Arbitrage Option Pricing: New Evidence on the Validity of the Martingale Property," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-009, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    5. Bates, David S, 1991. "The Crash of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1009-1044, July.
    6. Buchen, Peter W. & Kelly, Michael, 1996. "The Maximum Entropy Distribution of an Asset Inferred from Option Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 143-159, March.
    7. Karim Abadir & Michael Rockinger, "undated". "Density-Embedding Functions," Discussion Papers 97/16, Department of Economics, University of York.
    8. Campa, Jose M. & Chang, P. H. Kevin & Reider, Robert L., 1998. "Implied exchange rate distributions: evidence from OTC option markets1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 117-160, February.
    9. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P H Kevin, 1996. "Arbitrage-Based Tests of Target-Zone Credibility: Evidence from ERM Cross-Rate Options," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 726-740, September.
    10. Brenner, Menachem & Eom, Young Ho & Landskroner, Yoram, 1996. "Implied foreign exchange rates using options prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 171-183.
    11. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Binomial Trees; Risk-Neutral;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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