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US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty

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Cited by:

  1. Elgammal, Mohammed M. & Ahmed, Walid M.A. & Alshami, Abdullah, 2021. "Price and volatility spillovers between global equity, gold, and energy markets prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  2. Refk Selmi & Jamal Bouoiyour, 2020. "The financial costs of political uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 US presidential elections," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(2), pages 166-185, May.
  3. Doriana Cucinelli & Vincenzo Farina & Paola Schwizer & Maria Gaia Soana, 2021. "Better the Devil You Know: The Impact of Brexit Political Uncertainty on European Financial Markets," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(6), pages 1-62, July.
  4. Hyeongwoo Kim & Madeline H. Kim, 2021. "U.S. presidential election polls and the economic prospects of China and Mexico," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(54), pages 6231-6248, November.
  5. Chen Gu & Ann Marie Hibbert, 2021. "Expectations and financial markets: Lessons from Brexit," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 279-299, May.
  6. Jian, Jian-hui & Hu, Dan & Tian, Haiyan & Long, Chengfeng & Yang, Fan, 2023. "Political uncertainty, officials’ characteristics heterogeneity and firm cost stickiness," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 776-791.
  7. Angosto-Fernández Pedro Luis & Ferrández-Serrano Victoria, 2022. "World capital markets facing the first wave of COVID-19: Traditional event study versus sensitivity to new cases," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 8(4), pages 5-38, December.
  8. Carvalho, Augusto & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2018. "State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 66-78.
  9. Tammuz Alraheb & Amine Tarazi, 2016. "Local Versus International Crises, Foreign Subsidiaries and Bank Stability: Evidence from the MENA Region," Working Papers 1045, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2016.
  10. Eichler, Stefan & Plaga, Timo, 2020. "The economic record of the government and sovereign bond and stock returns around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
  11. José Valentim Machado Vicente & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2019. "A Volatility Smile-Based Uncertainty Index," Working Papers Series 502, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  12. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  13. Jens, Candace E., 2017. "Political uncertainty and investment: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial elections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 563-579.
  14. Boubakri, Narjess & Bouslimi, Lobna & Zhong, Rui, 2022. "Political uncertainty and analysts’ forecasts: International evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  15. Tamir Levy & Joseph Yagil, 2015. "The 2012 US Presidential Election Polls And Stock Returns," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 66-74, December.
  16. José Valentim Machado Vicente & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2021. "A volatility smile-based uncertainty index," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 231-246, June.
  17. Ferguson, Andrew & Hu, Wei & Lam, Peter, 2022. "Political uncertainty and deal structure: Evidence from Australian mining project acquisitions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  18. Chan, Kam Fong & Gray, Philip & Gray, Stephen & Zhong, Angel, 2020. "Political uncertainty, market anomalies and Presidential honeymoons," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  19. Agapova, Anna & Madura, Jeff, 2016. "Market uncertainty and earnings guidance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 97-111.
  20. Julia Darby & Jun Gao & Siobhan Lucey & Sheng Zhu, 2019. "Is heightened political uncertainty priced in stock returns? Evidence from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum," Working Papers 1913, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  21. David A. Burnie, 2021. "Democracy, dictatorship, and economic freedom signals in stock market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 375-390, January.
  22. Bryan Kelly & Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2417-2480, October.
  23. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Mudida, Robert & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Osuolale, Kazeem & Ogbonna, Ephraim A, 2019. "Influence of US Presidential Terms on S&P500 Index Using a Time Series Analysis Approach," MPRA Paper 93941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Nguyen, Phuc Lam Thy & Alsakka, Rasha & Mantovan, Noemi, 2023. "Political preferences and stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  25. Gong, Xu & Fu, Chengbo & Huang, Qiping & Lin, Meimei, 2022. "International political uncertainty and climate risk in the stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  26. Pham, Huy Nguyen Anh & Ramiah, Vikash & Moosa, Nisreen & Huynh, Tam & Pham, Nhi, 2018. "The financial effects of Trumpism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 264-274.
  27. Yuexin Huang & Ruijing Li & Danglun Luo & Rongli Yuan, 2024. "Political uncertainty and litigation efficiency: Evidence from China," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 1020-1055, July.
  28. Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2020. "The effect of corruption on stock market volatility," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(2), pages 1-6.
  29. Julia Darby & Graeme Roy, 2019. "Political uncertainty and stock market volatility: new evidence from the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(2), pages 314-330, May.
  30. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election and the U.S. Stock Markets," Papers 1612.06200, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
  31. Auld, T., 2022. "Betting and financial markets are cointegrated on election night," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2263, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  32. Charu Sharma & Amber Habib, 2019. "Mutual information based stock networks and portfolio selection for intraday traders using high frequency data: An Indian market case study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, August.
  33. Deng, Yuping & Wu, Yanrui & Xu, Helian, 2019. "Political turnover and firm pollution discharges: An empirical study," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  34. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 305-318.
  35. Dinesh K. Sharma & H. S. Hota & Kate Brown & Richa Handa, 2022. "Integration of genetic algorithm with artificial neural network for stock market forecasting," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(2), pages 828-841, June.
  36. Marek Szymański & Grzegorz Wojtalik, 2022. "Wpływ wyborów politycznych na ceny akcji na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 3, pages 290-306.
  37. Gu, Tiantian & Venkateswaran, Anand & Erath, Marc, 2023. "Impact of fiscal stimulus on volatility: A cross-country analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  38. Christopher Hartwell, 2015. "Political Volatility and Capital Markets: Evidence from Transition," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2015-15, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised Mar 2015.
  39. Redl, Chris, 2020. "Uncertainty matters: Evidence from close elections," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  40. Lee A. Smales, 2017. "“Brexit”: A Case Study in the Relationship Between Political and Financial Market Uncertainty," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 451-459, September.
  41. Qiu, Meng & Gu, Kai & Zhang, Zhichao & Zhang, Junrui, 2023. "Political uncertainty and financial statement readability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  42. Daniel Perico Ortiz, 2023. "Economic policy statements, social media, and stock market uncertainty: An analysis of Donald Trump’s tweets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 333-367, June.
  43. Chen, Shaojian & Mao, Hui & Feng, Zongxian, 2020. "Political uncertainty and firm entry: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing industries," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 16-30.
  44. Goodell, John W. & McGee, Richard J. & McGroarty, Frank, 2020. "Election uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty: A prediction market analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  45. Qadan, Mahmoud & Idilbi, Yasmeen, 2022. "Presidential honeymoons, political cycles and the commodity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  46. Yao, Yuan & Zhao, Yang & Li, Yan, 2022. "A volatility model based on adaptive expectations: An improvement on the rational expectations model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  47. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2017. "Government ownership and exposure to political uncertainty: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 152-165.
  48. Herold, Michael & Kanz, Andreas & Muck, Matthias, 2021. "Do opinion polls move stock prices? Evidence from the US presidential election in 2016," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 665-690.
  49. Smales, Lee A., 2015. "Better the devil you know: The influence of political incumbency on Australian financial market uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 59-74.
  50. Tang, Dapeng & Yang, Yiming & Zheng, Hao & Gebrehans, Mebrahtu Tesfagebreal, 2024. "Does reform policy of municipal bonds raise firm risk? A quasi-natural experiment from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  51. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2021. "How do Islamic equity markets respond to good and bad volatility of cryptocurrencies? The case of Bitcoin," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  52. Ahmed, Walid M.A. & Al Mafrachi, Mustafa, 2021. "Do higher-order realized moments matter for cryptocurrency returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 483-499.
  53. Liu, Wei & De Sisto, Marco & Li, Wen Helena, 2021. "How does the turnover of local officials make firms more charitable? A comprehensive analysis of corporate philanthropy in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
  54. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Rowland, Racquel, 2016. "The effect of Malaysia general election on stock market returns," MPRA Paper 107982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  55. Assaf, Rima & Gupta, Deeksha & Kumar, Rahul, 2023. "The price of war: Effect of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global financial market," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
  56. Pop, Ionuț Daniel, 2022. "COVID-19 crisis, voters’ drivers, and financial markets consequences on US presidential election and global economy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
  57. Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of political risk shocks," Bank of England working papers 841, Bank of England.
  58. Farooq, Omar & Ahmed, Neveen, 2019. "Dividend policy and political uncertainty: Evidence from the US presidential elections," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 201-209.
  59. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Wing-Keung Wong, 2021. "Sustainability of Global Economic Policy and Stock Market Returns in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
  60. Mobeen Ur Rehman & Wafa Ghardallou & Nasir Ahmad & Xuan Vinh Vo & Sang Hoon Kang, 2024. "Does effect of risk and uncertainties on US sectoral returns differ across different investment horizons and market conditions," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(1), pages 1-49, February.
  61. Jieqiong Wang & Xiao Zhang & Mingjie Dai, 2021. "Influences of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Social Responsibility Information Disclosure," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 23(58), pages 843-843, August.
  62. Cunha, Felipe Arias Fogliano de Souza & Meira, Erick & Orsato, Renato J. & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Lucena, André F.P., 2021. "Do low-carbon investments in emerging economies pay off? Evidence from the Brazilian stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  63. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Financial stress dynamics in the MENA region: Evidence from the Arab Spring," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 20-34.
  64. Mnasri, Ayman & Essaddam, Naceur, 2021. "Impact of U.S. presidential elections on stock markets’ volatility: Does incumbent president's party matter?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
  65. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2024. "Google search trends and stock markets: Sentiment, attention or uncertainty?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  66. Wang, Pengfei & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua & Zhang, Wei, 2020. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect the bitcoin market?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  67. Walid M. A. Ahmed, 2014. "Dynamic interactions between Egyptian equity and currency markets prior to and during political unrest," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(20), pages 1347-1359, October.
  68. Wadhwa, Kavita & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Political uncertainty and stock price crash risk: Insights from state-elections in an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
  69. Zhang, Lixia & Bai, Jiancheng & Zhang, Yueyan & Cui, Can, 2023. "Global economic uncertainty and the Chinese stock market: Assessing the impacts of global indicators," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  70. Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Robert Mudida & OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Kazeem A. Osuolale & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2021. "Mapping US presidential terms with S&P500 index: Time series analysis approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1938-1954, April.
  71. Xu, Yongan & Li, Ming & Yan, Wen & Bai, Jiancheng, 2022. "Predictability of the renewable energy market returns: The informational gains from the climate policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  72. Jannils Łukasz, 2021. "The concept of political instability in economic research," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 57(3), pages 268-284, September.
  73. Gerasimos G. Rompotis, 2018. "Political Uncertainty and the Greek Stock Market over the Period 2011-2015," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-18.
  74. Smales, Lee A., 2014. "Political uncertainty and financial market uncertainty in an Australian context," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 415-435.
  75. Li, Xiao, 2020. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on insider trades: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 41-57.
  76. Stephens, John & Mehdian, Seyed & Gherghina, Ștefan Cristian & Stoica, Ovidiu, 2023. "The reaction of the financial market to the January 6 United States Capitol attack: An intraday study," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  77. Luciana Simion & Georgiana-Loredana Schipor, 2020. "Financial Market Reactions to the Political Uncertainty. Study Case: Romania," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 1072-1080, December.
  78. Goodell, John W. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2015. "Political uncertainty and the 2012 US presidential election: A cointegration study of prediction markets, polls and a stand-out expert," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 162-171.
  79. Colak, Gonul & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Loukopoulos, Panagiotis & Loukopoulos, Georgios, 2021. "Political power, local policy uncertainty and IPO pricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  80. Lucía Morales & Bernadette Andreosso-O’Callaghan, 2018. "The Impact of Brexit on the Stock Markets of the Greater China Region," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-19, May.
  81. Kwabi, Frank Obenpong & Boateng, Agyenim & Wonu, Chizindu & Kariuki, Charles & Du, Anna, 2023. "Political uncertainty and cross-border equity portfolio allocation decisions: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  82. Auld, T., 2022. "Political markets as equity price factors," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2264, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  83. Angelini, Eliana & Foglia, Matteo & Ortolano, Alessandra & Leone, Maria, 2018. "The “Donald” and the market: Is there a cointegration?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 30-37.
  84. Yin-Siang Huang & Iftekhar Hasan & Ying-Chen Huang & Chih-Yung Lin, 2021. "Political Uncertainty and Bank Loan Contracts: Does Government Quality Matter?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 157-185, December.
  85. Rohan Chinchwadkar, 2020. "Political Business Cycles, Elections and Entrepreneurial Finance: A Framework," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(4), pages 941-954, December.
  86. Honghai Yu & Libing Fang & Boyang Sun, 2018. "The role of global economic policy uncertainty in long-run volatilities and correlations of U.S. industry-level stock returns and crude oil," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-17, February.
  87. Ekinci, Cumhur & Akyildirim, Erdinc & Corbet, Shaen, 2019. "Analysing the dynamic influence of US macroeconomic news releases on Turkish stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 155-164.
  88. Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Demir, Ender & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2013. "Experience-based corporate corruption and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 1-13.
  89. Vipul Kumar Singh, 2016. "Parliamentary elections create more ‘options’: Evidences from world’s largest democracy ‘India’," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(5), pages 375-392, September.
  90. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2021. "The high frequency impact of economic policy narratives on stock market uncertainty," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 02/2021, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
  91. Lukas Timbate & Dongil Kim & Dereje Asrat & Hwang Sungjun, 2024. "Firm-level political uncertainty, corporate lobbying and risk-taking," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
  92. Hill, Paula & Korczak, Adriana & Korczak, Piotr, 2019. "Political uncertainty exposure of individual companies: The case of the Brexit referendum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 58-76.
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