Political uncertainty and the 2012 US presidential election: A cointegration study of prediction markets, polls and a stand-out expert
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DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2015.05.003
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- Bilal Ahmed Memon & Hongxing Yao & Rabia Tahir, 2020. "General election effect on the network topology of Pakistan’s stock market: network-based study of a political event," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-14, December.
- Jannett Highfill & Kevin M. O’Brien, 2018. "eBay Memorabilia Auctions vis-à -vis Predictions for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 63(1), pages 71-78, March.
- Goodell, John W. & McGee, Richard J. & McGroarty, Frank, 2020. "Election uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty: A prediction market analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
- Franch, Fabio, 2021. "Political preferences nowcasting with factor analysis and internet data: The 2012 and 2016 US presidential elections," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
- Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Wing-Keung Wong, 2021. "Sustainability of Global Economic Policy and Stock Market Returns in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
- Restocchi, Valerio & McGroarty, Frank & Gerding, Enrico, 2019. "Statistical properties of volume and calendar effects in prediction markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1150-1160.
- Wang, Pengfei & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua & Zhang, Wei, 2020. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect the bitcoin market?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
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More about this item
Keywords
Prediction markets; Information aggregating markets; Intrade; Nate Silver; Iowa Presidential Election market; International integration; Futures markets;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
- D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
Statistics
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