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The effect of Malaysia general election on stock market returns

Author

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  • Liew, Venus Khim-Sen
  • Rowland, Racquel

Abstract

During the latest episode of general election held in Malaysia, it is observed that the FBMKLCI index was lifted 62.52 points in a day soon after the announcement of election outcome. Moreover, the index registered a highest gain of 96.29 points in the middle of the intra-day trade. This suggests that investors who had got the right direction could make profitable intra-day trading the next trading day of the general election date. Results from statistical analysis uncover significant before-election-effect and after-election-effect from the most recent general elections held in Malaysia. Different subsets of macroeconomic variables are found to have significant role on stock market return depending on the market situation. Remarkably, when there was close fight between the two major political parties during the 2008 and 2013 election years, political uncertainty showed up its negative and significant role in influencing the stock market return. The major implication of these findings is that while investors may seek abnormal returns before and after the next general election, which is around the corner, they will have to pay attention on the influence of macroeconomic variables and political uncertainty on stock market return during the election year.

Suggested Citation

  • Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Rowland, Racquel, 2016. "The effect of Malaysia general election on stock market returns," MPRA Paper 107982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:107982
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hon Chung Hui, 2021. "Were Foreign Exchange Markets Reacting Negatively to Political Events? The Case of Malaysia," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 10(1), pages 105-129, June.
    2. Faridah Najuna Misman & Shashazrina Roslan & Muhammad Izzat Mat Aladin, 2020. "General Election and Stock Market Performance: A Malaysian Case," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(3), pages 139-145, June.
    3. Bilal Ahmed Memon & Hongxing Yao & Rabia Tahir, 2020. "General election effect on the network topology of Pakistan’s stock market: network-based study of a political event," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Hui, Hon Chung, 2019. "Did the Foreign Exchange Market Cheer or Jeer in Response to Political Events? An Event Study of Malaysia – Some Stylised Facts," MPRA Paper 98149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Marek Szymański & Grzegorz Wojtalik, 2022. "Wpływ wyborów politycznych na ceny akcji na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 3, pages 290-306.
    6. Fareiny Morni & Erimalida Yazi, 2021. "Stock Market Reaction to Political Regime Change in Malaysia," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-11.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Market; Malaysia; General Election Effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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