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COVID-19 crisis, voters’ drivers, and financial markets consequences on US presidential election and global economy

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  • Pop, Ionuț Daniel

Abstract

The paper examines the United States 2020 presidential election drivers and effects, under the uncertainty caused by COVID-19. By considering news-based, financial markets, and coronavirus specific inputs in panel data framework, the results reveal that COVID-19 affects candidates’ chances. Biden's electorate reacts positive to news regarding unemployment or healthcare, stress level on financial markets or Country Sentiment Index. Trump's opportunities increase with coronavirus indicators or news about populism. However, President-elect Biden must provide solutions for national economy issues like unemployment, budget deficit or healthcare inequalities. Simultaneously, having extensive prerogatives on trade and investment partnerships, influences mitigation of COVID-19 global effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Pop, Ionuț Daniel, 2022. "COVID-19 crisis, voters’ drivers, and financial markets consequences on US presidential election and global economy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:44:y:2022:i:c:s154461232100194x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102113
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    Cited by:

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    2. Witold Chmielarz & Marek Zborowski & Mesut Atasever & Jin Xuetao & Justyna Szpakowska, 2023. "The Role of ICT in Creating the Conscious Development of Green Energy Applications in Times of Crisis: Comparison of Poland, Türkiye and People's Republic of China," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 492-519.
    3. Zhu, Pengfei & Lu, Tuantuan & Chen, Shenglan, 2022. "How do crude oil futures hedge crude oil spot risk after the COVID-19 outbreak? A wavelet denoising-GARCHSK-SJC Copula hedge ratio estimation method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 607(C).
    4. Cai, Lu & Le, Thanh Tiep, 2023. "Natural resources and financial development: Role of corporate social responsibility on green economic growth in Vietnam," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Du, Xiaoxu & Tang, Zhenpeng & Chen, Kaijie, 2023. "A novel crude oil futures trading strategy based on volume-price time-frequency decomposition with ensemble deep reinforcement learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    United States presidential election; COVID-19 pandemic; Global economy; Financial market; Uncertainty; News-based variable;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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