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A multi-horizon comparison of density forecasts for the S&P 500 using index returns and option prices

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Cited by:

  1. Jonas Dovern & Hans Manner, 2020. "Order‐invariant tests for proper calibration of multivariate density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 440-456, June.
  2. Horatio Cuesdeanu & Jens Carsten Jackwerth, 2018. "The pricing kernel puzzle in forward looking data," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 253-276, October.
  3. Ivanova, Vesela & Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria, 2014. "Interest rate forecasts, state price densities and risk premium from Euribor options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 210-223.
  4. Dovern, Jonas & Manner, Hans, 2016. "Robust Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145547, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  5. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Diana, 2021. "Risk premia in electricity derivatives markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  6. Yun, Jaeho, 2014. "Out-of-sample density forecasts with affine jump diffusion models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 74-87.
  7. Roman V. Ivanov, 2023. "On the Stochastic Volatility in the Generalized Black-Scholes-Merton Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-23, June.
  8. Andres Trujillo-Barrera & Philip Garcia & Mindy L Mallory, 2018. "Short-term price density forecasts in the lean hog futures market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 45(1), pages 121-142.
  9. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  10. Ricardo Crisóstomo, 2021. "Estimating real‐world probabilities: A forward‐looking behavioral framework," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1797-1823, November.
  11. Rui Fan & Stephen J. Taylor & Matteo Sandri, 2018. "Density forecast comparisons for stock prices, obtained from high‐frequency returns and daily option prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 83-103, January.
  12. Belén Nieto & Gonzalo Rubio, 2007. "Measuring time-varying economic fears with consumption-based stochastic discount factors," Economics Working Papers 1029, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2007.
  13. Maria Kyriacou & Jose Olmo & Marius Strittmatter, 2021. "Optimal portfolio allocation using option‐implied information," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 266-285, February.
  14. Alexandridis, Antonios K. & Apergis, Iraklis & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Voukelatos, Nikolaos, 2023. "Equity premium prediction: The role of information from the options market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  15. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
  16. Rainer Baule & Olaf Korn & Sven Saßning, 2016. "Which Beta Is Best? On the Information Content of Option†implied Betas," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), pages 450-483, June.
  17. Kempf, Alexander & Korn, Olaf & Saßning, Sven, 2014. "Portfolio optimization using forward-looking information," CFR Working Papers 11-10 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  18. Rompolis, Leonidas S., 2010. "Retrieving risk neutral densities from European option prices based on the principle of maximum entropy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 918-937, December.
  19. Alexander Kempf & Olaf Korn & Sven Saßning, 2015. "Portfolio Optimization Using Forward-Looking Information," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 467-490.
  20. Murad Samsudin, Najmi Ismail & Mohamad, Azhar & Sifat, Imtiaz Mohammad, 2021. "Implied volatility of structured warrants: Emerging market evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 464-479.
  21. Ricardo Crisóstomo & Lorena Couso, 2018. "Financial density forecasts: A comprehensive comparison of risk‐neutral and historical schemes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 589-603, August.
  22. Dovern, Jonas & Manner, Hans, 2016. "Order Invariant Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts," Working Papers 0608, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  23. Leonidas Tsiaras, 2010. "Dynamic Models of Exchange Rate Dependence Using Option Prices and Historical Returns," CREATES Research Papers 2010-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  24. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Kovalenko, Illia & Post, Thierry, 2023. "A financial modeling approach to industry exchange-traded funds selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  25. Baule, Rainer & Korn, Olaf & Saßning, Sven, 2013. "Which beta is best? On the information content of option-implied betas," CFR Working Papers 13-11, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  26. Hollstein, Fabian & Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2019. "Asset prices and “the devil(s) you know”," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 20-35.
  27. de Vincent-Humphreys, Rupert & Noss, Joseph, 2012. "Estimating probability distributions of future asset prices: empirical transformations from option-implied risk-neutral to real-world density functions," Bank of England working papers 455, Bank of England.
  28. Kaeck, Andreas & Rodrigues, Paulo & Seeger, Norman J., 2018. "Model Complexity and Out-of-Sample Performance: Evidence from S&P 500 Index Returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-29.
  29. Takkabutr, Nattapol, 2013. "Option-Implied Risk Aversion Anomalies: Evidence From Japanese Market," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 54(2), pages 137-157, December.
  30. Francisco Alonso & Roberto Blanco & Gonzalo Rubio, 2009. "Option-implied preferences adjustments, density forecasts, and the equity risk premium," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 141-164, June.
  31. Vladimir Zdorovenin & Jacques Pézier, 2011. "Does Information Content of Option Prices Add Value for Asset Allocation?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-03, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
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