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Portfolio optimization using forward-looking information

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  • Kempf, Alexander
  • Korn, Olaf
  • Saßning, Sven

Abstract

We develop a new family of estimators of the covariance matrix that relies solely on forwardlooking information. It uses only current prices of plain-vanilla options. In an out-of-sample study we show that a minimum-variance strategy based on these fully-implied estimators outperforms several benchmark strategies, including various strategies based on historical estimates, index investing, and 1/N investing. The outperformance originates in crisis periods when information ow and information asymmetry are high. Although the historical benchmark strategies improve when more recent data is used, they never outperform fully-implied strategies. Thus, our results suggest that investors are better off relying on forward-looking information.

Suggested Citation

  • Kempf, Alexander & Korn, Olaf & Saßning, Sven, 2014. "Portfolio optimization using forward-looking information," CFR Working Papers 11-10 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1110r
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Christoffersen & Xuhui (Nick) Pan, 2014. "Equity Portfolio Management Using Option Price Information," CREATES Research Papers 2015-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Yoonsik Hong & Yanghoon Kim & Jeonghun Kim & Yongmin Choi, 2022. "Index Tracking via Learning to Predict Market Sensitivities," Papers 2209.00780, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    3. Feunou Bruno & Tafolong Ernest, 2015. "Fourier inversion formulas for multiple-asset option pricing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 531-559, December.
    4. Goodell, John W. & McGee, Richard J. & McGroarty, Frank, 2020. "Election uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty: A prediction market analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Brinkmann, Felix & Korn, Olaf, 2014. "Risk-adjusted option-implied moments," CFR Working Papers 14-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    6. Apostolos Kourtis & Raphael N. Markellos & Lazaros Symeonidis, 2016. "An International Comparison of Implied, Realized, and GARCH Volatility Forecasts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(12), pages 1164-1193, December.
    7. Andrea Giacomelli, 2022. "Mark to Target Information: idiosyncratic forward-looking information and its use to define primary ESG indicators," Working Papers 2022:08, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    portfolio selection; option-implied information;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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