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The pricing kernel puzzle in forward looking data

Author

Listed:
  • Horatio Cuesdeanu

    (University of Konstanz)

  • Jens Carsten Jackwerth

    (University of Konstanz)

Abstract

The pricing kernel puzzle concerns the locally increasing empirical pricing kernel, which is inconsistent with a risk-averse representative investor in a single period, single state variable setting. Some recent papers worry that the puzzle is caused simply by the mismatch of backward looking subjective and forward looking risk-neutral distributions of index returns. By using a novel test and forward looking information only, we generally confirm the existence of a u-shaped pricing kernel puzzle in the S&P 500 options data. The evidence is weaker for tests against an alternative with a risk-neutral investor and for longer horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Horatio Cuesdeanu & Jens Carsten Jackwerth, 2018. "The pricing kernel puzzle in forward looking data," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 253-276, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:21:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11147-017-9140-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11147-017-9140-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119289, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Brendan K. Beare & Juwon Seo & Zhongxi Zheng, 2022. "Stochastic arbitrage with market index options," Papers 2207.00949, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    4. Ricardo Crisóstomo, 2021. "Estimating real‐world probabilities: A forward‐looking behavioral framework," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1797-1823, November.
    5. Li, Yifan & Nolte, Ingmar & Pham, Manh Cuong, 2024. "Parametric risk-neutral density estimation via finite lognormal-Weibull mixtures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(2).
    6. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Chen Tong, 2022. "Option Pricing with Time-Varying Volatility Risk Aversion," Papers 2204.06943, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    7. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Jiao, Yuhan & Liu, Qiang & Guo, Shuxin, 2021. "Pricing kernel monotonicity and term structure: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    9. Silvia Bressan & Alex Weissensteiner, 2023. "Option-Implied Skewness and the Value of Financial Intermediaries," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 207-229, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pricing kernel; Option pricing; Forward looking data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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