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A monthly crude oil spot price forecasting model using relative inventories

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Cited by:

  1. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2014. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements With Oil-Sensitive Stocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 830-844, April.
  2. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2020. "Forecasting commodity prices out-of-sample: Can technical indicators help?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 666-683.
  3. Reinhard Ellwanger & Stephen Snudden, 2023. "Futures Prices are Useful Predictors of the Spot Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(4), pages 65-82, July.
  4. Hongtao Chen & Lianghua Chen, 2015. "Multifractal spectrum analysis of Brent crude oil futures prices volatility in intercontinental exchange," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 38(1/2/3), pages 93-108.
  5. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil under economic and statistical constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 599-608.
  6. Xing, Li-Min & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil prices with shrinkage methods: Can nonconvex penalty and Huber loss help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  7. Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Roberts, Helen & Lont, David H., 2017. "Crude inventory accounting and speculation in the physical oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 508-522.
  8. Cotter, John & Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel & Potì, Valerio, 2023. "Commodity futures return predictability and intertemporal asset pricing," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
  9. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil market returns: Enhanced moving average technical indicators," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  10. Ding, Hui & Huang, Yisu & Wang, Jiqian, 2023. "Have the predictability of oil changed during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  11. Scarpa, Elisa & Longo, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Markandya, Anil, 2007. "Evaluating the Empirical Performance of Alternative Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting," International Energy Markets Working Papers 12118, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  12. He, Angela W.W. & Kwok, Jerry T.K. & Wan, Alan T.K., 2010. "An empirical model of daily highs and lows of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1499-1506, November.
  13. Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo & Markandya, Anil & Scarpa, Elisa, 2011. "Oil Price Forecast Evaluation with Flexible Loss Functions," Energy: Resources and Markets 120042, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  14. Julia S. Mehlitz & Benjamin R. Auer, 2021. "Time‐varying dynamics of expected shortfall in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 895-925, June.
  15. Clostermann, Jörg & Keis, Nikolaus & Seitz, Franz, 2010. "Short-term oil models before and during the financial market crisis," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 18, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).
  16. Funk, Christoph, 2018. "Forecasting the real price of oil - Time-variation and forecast combination," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 288-302.
  17. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Gong, Qiang, 2021. "Terrorist attacks and oil prices: Hypothesis and empirical evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  18. Naser, Hanan, 2016. "Estimating and forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A data rich model using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 75-87.
  19. Sun, Shaolong & Sun, Yuying & Wang, Shouyang & Wei, Yunjie, 2018. "Interval decomposition ensemble approach for crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 274-287.
  20. Michal RUBASZEK, 2010. "The Role of Two Interest Rates in the Intertemporal CA Model," EcoMod2010 259600145, EcoMod.
  21. Jeffrey A Frankel & Andrew K Rose, 2010. "Determinants of Agricultural and Mineral Commodity Prices," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  22. Ye, Shiyu & Karali, Berna, 2016. "The informational content of inventory announcements: Intraday evidence from crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 349-364.
  23. Yu, Lean & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2008. "Forecasting crude oil price with an EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2623-2635, September.
  24. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2014. "Effects of speculation and interest rates in a “carry trade” model of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-112.
  25. Dale Roberts & Laura Ryan, 2015. "Evidence of speculation in world oil prices," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(4), pages 630-651, November.
  26. Claudio Dicembrino & Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, 2012. "The Fundamental and Speculative Components of the Oil Spot Price: A Real Option Value Approach," CEIS Research Paper 229, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Apr 2012.
  27. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2009. "Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 537-549, July.
  28. Zhang, Xun & Yu, Lean & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2009. "Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price: An EMD-based event analysis method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 768-778, September.
  29. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Boris, Keith, 2009. "Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts: The DOE's energy price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-196.
  30. Taiyong Li & Yingrui Zhou & Xinsheng Li & Jiang Wu & Ting He, 2019. "Forecasting Daily Crude Oil Prices Using Improved CEEMDAN and Ridge Regression-Based Predictors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-25, September.
  31. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2007. "Forecasting the price of crude oil via convenience yield predictions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 527-549.
  32. de Souza e Silva, Edmundo G. & Legey, Luiz F.L. & de Souza e Silva, Edmundo A., 2010. "Forecasting oil price trends using wavelets and hidden Markov models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1507-1519, November.
  33. Huang, Wenyang & Gao, Tianxiao & Hao, Yun & Wang, Xiuqing, 2023. "Transformer-based forecasting for intraday trading in the Shanghai crude oil market: Analyzing open-high-low-close prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
  34. Keck, Alexander & Raubold, Alexander, 2006. "Forecasting trade," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2006-05, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  35. He, Kaijian & Yu, Lean & Lai, Kin Keung, 2012. "Crude oil price analysis and forecasting using wavelet decomposed ensemble model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 564-574.
  36. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 238-252.
  37. Theodore Syriopoulos & Michael Tsatsaronis & Ioannis Karamanos, 2021. "Support Vector Machine Algorithms: An Application to Ship Price Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 55-87, January.
  38. Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera & Anil Markandya & Elisa Scarpa, 2009. "Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting: A Critical Survey," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(1), pages 29-44, April.
  39. Zhuzhu Wen & Ivan Indriawan & Donald Lien & Yahua Xu, 2023. "Intraday Return Predictability in the Crude Oil Market: The Role of EIA Inventory Announcements," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(5), pages 149-172, September.
  40. Manel Hamdi & Chaker Aloui, 2015. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Literature Survey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1339-1359.
  41. He, Yanan & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2010. "Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 868-876, July.
  42. García-Martos, Carolina & Rodríguez, Julio & Sánchez, María Jesús, 2013. "Modelling and forecasting fossil fuels, CO2 and electricity prices and their volatilities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 363-375.
  43. Li, Xuerong & Shang, Wei & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Text-based crude oil price forecasting: A deep learning approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1548-1560.
  44. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Lin, Shih-Mo, 2014. "Non-linear dynamics in international resource markets: Evidence from regime switching approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 233-247.
  45. Bu, Hui, 2014. "Effect of inventory announcements on crude oil price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 485-494.
  46. Fan, Ying & Liang, Qiang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "A generalized pattern matching approach for multi-step prediction of crude oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 889-904, May.
  47. Guan, Keqin & Gong, Xu, 2023. "A new hybrid deep learning model for monthly oil prices forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  48. Härtl, Fabian & Knoke, Thomas, 2014. "The influence of the oil price on timber supply," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 32-42.
  49. Latife Ghalayini, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting spot oil price," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 355-373, December.
  50. Tobi Olasojiand & Elijah Acquah-Andoh, 2016. "Evaluating The Short Run Effects Of U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Levels On Wti Crude Oil Price From 1993 - 2013," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 4(3), pages 64-84.
  51. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2018. "Predictability of crude oil prices: An investor perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 193-205.
  52. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  53. Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera & Anil Markandya & Elisa Scarpa, 2009. "Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting: A Critical Survey," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(01), pages 29-44, April.
  54. Ai Han & Yanan He & Yongmiao Hong & Shouyang Wang, 2013. "Forecasting Interval-valued Crude Oil Prices via Autoregressive Conditional Interval Models," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
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