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Additive outliers, GARCH and forecasting volatility

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. E. Ruiz & M.A. Carnero & D. Pereira, 2004. "Effects of Level Outliers on the Identification and Estimation of GARCH Models," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 21, Econometric Society.
  2. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Volatility persistence in crude oil markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 729-742.
  3. Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
  4. F. Javier Trivez & Beatriz Catalan, 2009. "Detecting level shifts in ARMA-GARCH (1,1) Models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 679-697.
  5. Jinliang Li & Chihwa Kao & Wei David Zhang, 2010. "Bounded influence estimator for GARCH models: evidence from foreign exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(11), pages 1437-1445.
  6. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Large shocks in the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index: 1928–2013," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
  7. Ané, Thierry & Ureche-Rangau, Loredana & Gambet, Jean-Benoît & Bouverot, Julien, 2008. "Robust outlier detection for Asia-Pacific stock index returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 326-343, October.
  8. Mathieu Gatumel & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Dynamic analysis of the insurance linked securities index," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b08049, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  9. Kamaladdin Fataliyev & Aneesh Chivukula & Mukesh Prasad & Wei Liu, 2021. "Stock Market Analysis with Text Data: A Review," Papers 2106.12985, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
  10. Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sebastien, 2003. "Central bank interventions and jumps in double long memory models of daily exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 641-660, December.
  11. Boudt, Kris & Daníelsson, Jón & Laurent, Sébastien, 2013. "Robust forecasting of dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 244-257.
  12. Thavaneswaran, A. & Appadoo, S.S. & Peiris, S., 2005. "Forecasting volatility," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 1-10, November.
  13. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Output Growth and its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(3), pages 728-751, January.
  14. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
  15. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Ooms, Marius, 2008. "Multimodality in GARCH regression models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 432-448.
  16. Hotta, Luiz & Trucíos, Carlos, 2015. "Robust bootstrap forecast densities for GARCH models: returns, volatilities and value-at-risk," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1523, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  17. Liu, Min & Taylor, James W. & Choo, Wei-Chong, 2020. "Further empirical evidence on the forecasting of volatility with smooth transition exponential smoothing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 651-659.
  18. M. Angeles Carnero & Daniel Peña & Esther Ruiz, 2004. "Spurious And Hidden Volatility," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-45, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  19. Bali, Rakesh & Guirguis, Hany, 2007. "Extreme observations and non-normality in ARCH and GARCH," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 332-346.
  20. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2008. "The Great Moderation Flattens Fat Tails: Disappearing Leptokurtosis," Working papers 2008-48, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  21. Mohamed Ali Houfi & Ghassen El Montasser, 2010. "Effets des points aberrants sur les tests de normalité et de linéarité. Applications à la bourse de Tokyo," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 13(36), pages 15-51, June.
  22. Preminger, Arie & Franck, Raphael, 2007. "Forecasting exchange rates: A robust regression approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 71-84.
  23. Watkins, Clinton & McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Related commodity markets and conditional correlations," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 567-579.
  24. Dejan Živkov & Jovan Njegić & Mirela Momčilović & Ivan Milenković, 2016. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity in the European Emerging Economies," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 253-270.
  25. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2006. "Large shocks and the September 11th terrorist attacks on international stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 683-698, July.
  26. Mike K. P. So & Wing Ki Liu & Amanda M. Y. Chu, 2018. "Bayesian Shrinkage Estimation Of Time-Varying Covariance Matrices In Financial Time Series," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 22(1), pages 369-404, December.
  27. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  28. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2019. "The accuracy of asymmetric GARCH model estimation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 157, pages 179-202.
  29. Karakatsani Nektaria V & Bunn Derek W., 2010. "Fundamental and Behavioural Drivers of Electricity Price Volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1-42, September.
  30. Francq, Christian & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2022. "Testing the existence of moments for GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 47-64.
  31. Gilles Daniel & Nathan Joseph & David Bree, 2005. "Stochastic volatility and the goodness-of-fit of the Heston model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 199-211.
  32. Piotr Fiszeder & Marta Ma³ecka, 2022. "Forecasting volatility during the outbreak of Russian invasion of Ukraine: application to commodities, stock indices, currencies, and cryptocurrencies," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(4), pages 939-967, December.
  33. Juncal Cunado Eizaguirre & Javier Gomez Biscarri & Fernando Perez de Gracia Hidalgo, 2009. "Financial liberalization, stock market volatility and outliers in emerging economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(10), pages 809-823.
  34. Yi, Eojin & Ahn, Kwangwon & Choi, M.Y., 2022. "Cryptocurrency: Not far from equilibrium," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
  35. Grané, Aurea & Veiga, Helena, 2010. "Outliers in Garch models and the estimation of risk measures," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws100502, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  36. Dewachter, Hans & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Lecourt, Christelle, 2014. "The intra-day impact of communication on euro-dollar volatility and jumps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 131-154.
  37. Carnero, María Ángeles, 2001. "Outliers and conditional autoregressive heteroscedasticity in time series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws010704, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  38. YAMAMOTO, Yohei & 山本, 庸平, 2015. "Asymptotic Inference for Common Factor Models in the Presence of Jumps," Discussion Papers 2015-05, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  39. Laurent, Sébastien & Lecourt, Christelle & Palm, Franz C., 2016. "Testing for jumps in conditionally Gaussian ARMA–GARCH models, a robust approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 383-400.
  40. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Lima, Luiz Renato & Linton, Oliver & Smith, Daniel R., 2011. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models via Quantile Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 150-160.
  41. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
  42. Beum-Jo Park, 2009. "Risk-return relationship in equity markets: using a robust GMM estimator for GARCH-M models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 93-104.
  43. González-Sánchez, Mariano, 2021. "Is there a relationship between the time scaling property of asset returns and the outliers? Evidence from international financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
  44. Nathan Lael Joseph, 2003. "Using monthly returns to model conditional heteroscedasticity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 791-801.
  45. Grossi Luigi, 2004. "Analyzing Financial Time Series through Robust Estimators," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15, May.
  46. Martha Cecilia García & Aura María Jalal & Luis Alfonso Garzón & Jorge Mario López, 2013. "Métodos para predecir índices Bursátiles," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, December.
  47. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
  48. repec:hit:hiasdp:2015-04 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. Ercan Balaban & Asli Bayar & Robert Faff, 2006. "Forecasting stock market volatility: Further international evidence," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 171-188.
  50. Philip Hans Franses & Dick van Dijk & Andre Lucas, 2004. "Short patches of outliers, ARCH and volatility modelling," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 221-231.
  51. Patrick F. Patrocinio & Valderio A. Reisen & Pascal Bondon & Edson Z. Monte & Ian M. Danilevicz, 2024. "M-Quantile Estimation for GARCH Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(6), pages 2175-2192, June.
  52. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Manera, Matteo, 2015. "The role of outliers and oil price shocks on volatility of metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 139-150.
  53. Guidi, Francesco, 2010. "Modelling and forecasting volatility of East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries and Japan stock markets with non-linear models," MPRA Paper 19851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  54. Ewa Ratuszny, 2013. "Robust Estimation in VaR Modelling - Univariate Approaches using Bounded Innovation Propagation and Regression Quantiles Methodology," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 5(1), pages 35-63, March.
  55. Veiga, Helena, 2009. "Wavelet-based detection of outliers in volatility models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws090403, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  56. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2005. "Outliers and GARCH models in financial data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 347-352, March.
  57. Nagaraj Naik & Biju R. Mohan, 2021. "Stock Price Volatility Estimation Using Regime Switching Technique-Empirical Study on the Indian Stock Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-18, July.
  58. Grané, Aurea & Veiga, Helena, 2010. "Wavelet-based detection of outliers in financial time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2580-2593, November.
  59. Chikashi Tsuji, 2016. "Does the fear gauge predict downside risk more accurately than econometric models? Evidence from the US stock market," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1220711-122, December.
  60. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2017. "Forecasting crude-oil market volatility: Further evidence with jumps," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 508-519.
  61. Yaqoob, Tanzeela & Maqsood, Arfa, 2024. "The potency of time series outliers in volatile models: An empirical analysis of fintech, and mineral resources," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
  62. Jang, Hanwool & Song, Yena & Ahn, Kwangwon, 2020. "Can government stabilize the housing market? The evidence from South Korea," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 550(C).
  63. Jan G. de Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-068/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  64. Lisa Crosato & Luigi Grossi, 2019. "Correcting outliers in GARCH models: a weighted forward approach," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 60(6), pages 1939-1970, December.
  65. Giorgio Busetti & Matteo Manera, 2003. "STAR-GARCH Models for Stock Market Interactions in the Pacific Basin Region, Japan and US," Working Papers 2003.43, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  66. Vasiliki Chatzikonstanti & Michail Karoglou, 2022. "Can black swans be tamed with a flexible mean‐variance specification?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3202-3227, July.
  67. Wang, Ju-Jie & Wang, Jian-Zhou & Zhang, Zhe-George & Guo, Shu-Po, 2012. "Stock index forecasting based on a hybrid model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 758-766.
  68. Lei Shi & Md. Mostafizur Rahman & Wen Gan & Jianhua Zhao, 2015. "Stepwise local influence in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 428-444, February.
  69. Boudt, Kris & Croux, Christophe, 2010. "Robust M-estimation of multivariate GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2459-2469, November.
  70. Lavín, Jaime F. & Valle, Mauricio A. & Magner, Nicolás S., 2024. "Stock market pattern recognition using symbol entropy analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  71. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1999. "Outlier detection in the GARCH (1,1) model," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9926-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  72. Xiao-Ming Li, 2014. "Rethinking Long Memory and Structural Breaks in the Forward Premium," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 455-485, September.
  73. Beatriz Catalan & F. Javier Trivez, 2007. "Forecasting volatility in GARCH models with additive outliers," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 591-596.
  74. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Pop, Adrian, 2015. "Risk and ethical investment: Empirical evidence from Dow Jones Islamic indexes," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 33-56.
  75. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2019. "Volatility estimation for cryptocurrencies: Further evidence with jumps and structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 954-968.
  76. Amélie Charles, 2008. "Forecasting volatility with outliers in GARCH models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 551-565.
  77. Jonathan Dark & Xibin Zhang & Nan Qu, 2010. "Influence diagnostics for multivariate GARCH processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 278-291, July.
  78. Chan, W.S. & Wong, C.S. & Chung, A.H.L., 2009. "Modelling Australian interest rate swap spreads by mixture autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic processes," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2779-2786.
  79. Philipp Aschersleben & Winfried J. Steiner, 2022. "A semiparametric approach to estimating reference price effects in sales response models," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(4), pages 591-643, May.
  80. Xiaowen Dai & Libin Jin & Anqi Shi & Lei Shi, 2016. "Outlier detection and accommodation in general spatial models," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 25(3), pages 453-475, August.
  81. Grané, Aurea & Martín-Barragán, Belén & Veiga, Helena, 2014. "Outliers in multivariate Garch models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws140503, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  82. Mathieu Gatumel & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Dynamic Analysis of the Insurance Linked Securities Index," Post-Print halshs-00320378, HAL.
  83. Guanghui Cai & Zhimin Wu & Lei Peng, 2021. "Forecasting volatility with outliers in Realized GARCH models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 667-685, July.
  84. Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Franck Speeg, 2011. "A simple method for variance shift detection at unknown time points," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2204-2218.
  85. Vadim Azhmyakov & Ilya Shirokov & Luz Adriana Guzman Trujillo, 2024. "Advanced Statistical Analysis of the Predicted Volatility Levels in Crypto Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-15, July.
  86. Guermat, Cherif & Harris, Richard D. F., 2002. "Forecasting value at risk allowing for time variation in the variance and kurtosis of portfolio returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 409-419.
  87. Anders Wilhelmsson, 2006. "Garch forecasting performance under different distribution assumptions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(8), pages 561-578.
  88. Min-Hsien Chiang & Ray Yeutien Chou & Li-Min Wang, 2016. "Outlier Detection in the Lognormal Logarithmic Conditional Autoregressive Range Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(1), pages 126-144, February.
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