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Measuring the Incidence of Insider Trading in a Market for State-Contingent Claims

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Cited by:

  1. Alasdair Brown & Fuyu Yang, 2017. "The Role of Speculative Trade in Market Efficiency: Evidence from a Betting Exchange," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 583-603.
  2. Bruno Jullien & Bernard Salanie, 2000. "Estimating Preferences under Risk: The Case of Racetrack Bettors," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 503-530, June.
  3. Oliver Merz & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2019. "Does sentiment harm market efficiency? An empirical analysis using a betting exchange setting," Working Papers 381, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  4. Smith, Michael A. & Paton, David & Williams, Leighton Vaughan, 2009. "Do bookmakers possess superior skills to bettors in predicting outcomes?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 539-549, August.
  5. Kovalchik Stephanie Ann, 2016. "Searching for the GOAT of tennis win prediction," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 127-138, September.
  6. Paton, David & Vaughan Williams, Leighton & Fraser, Stuart, 1999. "Regulating Insider Trading in Betting Markets," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 237-241, July.
  7. David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2001. "Monopoly Rents and Price Fixing in Betting Markets," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 19(3), pages 265-278, November.
  8. Restocchi, Valerio & McGroarty, Frank & Gerding, Enrico & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2018. "It takes all sorts: A heterogeneous agent explanation for prediction market mispricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(2), pages 556-569.
  9. Martin Kukuk & Stefan Winter, 2008. "An Alternative Explanation of the Favorite-Longshot Bias," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(2), pages 79-96, September.
  10. Smith, Michael A. & Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 2010. "Forecasting horse race outcomes: New evidence on odds bias in UK betting markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 543-550, July.
  11. Brown, Alasdair & Yang, Fuyu, 2015. "Does society underestimate women? Evidence from the performance of female jockeys in horse racing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 106-118.
  12. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2013. "Inter-market Arbitrage in Betting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(318), pages 300-325, April.
  13. John Peirson & Michael A. Smith, 2010. "Expert Analysis and Insider Information in Horse Race Betting: Regulating Informed Market Behavior," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(4), pages 976-992, April.
  14. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2011. "Sentimental Preferences and the Organizational Regime of Betting Markets," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(2), pages 502-518, October.
  15. Alasdair Brown & Fuyu Yang, 2017. "Have Betting Exchanges Corrupted Horse Racing?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(7), pages 673-697, October.
  16. Chia-Hao Chang, 2021. "Construction of a Predictive Model for MLB Matches," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-11, February.
  17. Jason P. Berkowitz & Craig A. Depken II & John M. Gandar, 2018. "The Conversion of Money Lines Into Win Probabilities," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(7), pages 990-1015, October.
  18. Les Coleman, 2007. "Just How Serious is Insider Trading? An Evaluation using Thoroughbred Wagering Markets," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 31-55, February.
  19. Ioannis Asimakopoulos & John Goddard, 2004. "Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 51-66.
  20. Vincenzo Candila & Lucio Palazzo, 2020. "Neural Networks and Betting Strategies for Tennis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-19, June.
  21. Charles Moul & Joseph Keller, 2014. "Time to Unbridle U.S. Thoroughbred Racetracks? Lessons from Australian Bookies," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 44(3), pages 211-239, May.
  22. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2020. "Betting Market Efficiency in the Presence of Unfamiliar Shocks: The Case of Ghost Games during the Covid-19 Pandemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 8526, CESifo.
  23. Gross, Johannes & Rebeggiani, Luca, 2018. "Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited," MPRA Paper 87230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Parimal Kanti Bag & Bibhas Saha, 2010. "Betting in the Shadow of Match-Fixing," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 011, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  25. Bruce, Alistair C. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2005. "Market ecology and decision behaviour in state-contingent claims markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 199-217, February.
  26. Jaume García & Levi Pérez & Plácido Rodríguez, 2017. "Forecasting football match results: are the many smarter than the few?," Chapters, in: Plácido Rodríguez & Brad R. Humphreys & Robert Simmons (ed.), The Economics of Sports Betting, chapter 5, pages 71-91, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  27. Schnytzer, Adi & Lamers, Martien & Makropoulou, Vasiliki, 2010. "The impact of insider trading on forecasting in a bookmakers' horse betting market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 537-542, July.
  28. Vincenzo Candila & Antonio Scognamillo, 2019. "On the Longshot Bias in Tennis Betting Markets: The Casco Normalization," Working Papers 3_236, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Salerno.
  29. Guy Elaad, 2020. "Home-field advantage and biased prediction markets in English soccer," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(14), pages 1170-1174, July.
  30. Alistair C. Bruce & Johnnie E. V. Johnson & John D. Peirson & Jiejun Yu, 2009. "An Examination of the Determinants of Biased Behaviour in a Market for State Contingent Claims," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 282-303, April.
  31. Stephen Morris, 1997. "Risk, uncertainty and hidden information," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 235-269, May.
  32. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2022. "Home advantage in professional soccer and betting market efficiency: The role of spectator crowds," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 294-316, May.
  33. D. Law & D. A. Peel & M. Cain, 1999. "Place returns between the tote and bookmakers: empirical evidence of a market anomaly," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(12), pages 789-792.
  34. D. A. Peel & D. Law & M. Cain, 1999. "Market movers and tote and bookmakers returns: further empirical evidence on a market anomaly," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(12), pages 801-804.
  35. Williams, Leighton Vaughan & Paton, David, 1997. "Why Is There a Favourite-Longshot Bias in British Racetrack Betting Markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 150-158, January.
  36. Montone, Maurizio, 2021. "Optimal pricing in the online betting market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 344-363.
  37. Erik Å trumbelj, 2016. "A Comment on the Bias of Probabilities Derived From Betting Odds and Their Use in Measuring Outcome Uncertainty," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(1), pages 12-26, January.
  38. David Peel & David Law & Michael Cain, 2000. "Product bundling and a rule of thumb versus the Harville formulae: can each way bets with UK bookmakers generate abnormal returns," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1737-1744.
  39. Masahiro Ashiya, 2015. "Lock! Risk-Free Arbitrage in the Japanese Racetrack Betting Market," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(3), pages 322-330, April.
  40. Michael A. Smith & David Paton & Leighton Vaughan-Williams, 2004. "Costs, biases and betting markets: new evidence," Working Papers 2004/5, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  41. Alasdair Brown, 2011. "Evidence of in-play insider trading on a UK betting exchange," Post-Print hal-00670250, HAL.
  42. Leighton Vaughan Williams & David Paton, 1997. "Does information efficiency require a perception of information inefficiency?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(10), pages 615-617.
  43. Andrés Ramírez Hassan & Johnatan Cardona Jiménez, 2014. "Which team will win the 2014 FIFA World Cup? A Bayesian approach for dummies," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10898, Universidad EAFIT.
  44. Bag, Parimal Kanti & Saha, Bibhas, 2011. "Match-fixing under competitive odds," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 318-344.
  45. Michael Cain & David Law & David Peel, 2003. "The Favourite‐Longshot Bias, Bookmaker Margins and Insider Trading in a Variety of Betting Markets," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 263-273, July.
  46. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2011. "Exchange vs Dealers: A High-Frequency Analysis of In-Play Betting Prices," Discussion Papers 11-19, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  47. M. Sung & J. E. V. Johnson, 2010. "Revealing Weak‐Form Inefficiency in a Market for State Contingent Claims: The Importance of Market Ecology, Modelling Procedures and Investment Strategies," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(305), pages 128-147, January.
  48. David Edelman, 2007. "Adapting support vector machine methods for horserace odds prediction," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 325-336, April.
  49. Berkowitz, Jason P. & Depken II, Craig A. & Gandar, John M., 2018. "Market evidence against widespread point shaving in college basketball," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 283-292.
  50. Goto, Shingo & Yamada, Toru, 2023. "What drives biased odds in sports betting markets: Bettors’ irrationality and the role of bookmakers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 252-270.
  51. Stewart Hodges & Hao Lin & Lan Liu, 2013. "Fixed Odds Bookmaking with Stochastic Betting Demands," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(2), pages 399-417, March.
  52. Bruce, A.C. & Johnson, J.E.V. & Peirson, J., 2012. "Recreational versus professional bettors: Performance differences and efficiency implications," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 172-174.
  53. Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & McDonald, David C.J., 2016. "Informed trading, market efficiency and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 56-59.
  54. Costa Sperb, L.F. & Sung, M.-C. & Ma, T. & Johnson, J.E.V., 2022. "Turning the heat on financial decisions: Examining the role temperature plays in the incidence of bias in a time-limited financial market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(3), pages 1142-1157.
  55. David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2005. "Forecasting outcomes in spread betting markets: can bettors use 'quarbs' to beat the book?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 139-154.
  56. Franke, Maximilian, 2020. "Do market participants misprice lottery-type assets? Evidence from the European soccer betting market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-18.
  57. Jullien, Bruno & Salanié, Bernard, 2005. "Empirical Evidence on the Preferences of Racetrack Bettors," IDEI Working Papers 178, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  58. da Costa, Igor Barbosa & Marinho, Leandro Balby & Pires, Carlos Eduardo Santos, 2022. "Forecasting football results and exploiting betting markets: The case of “both teams to score”," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 895-909.
  59. David Forrest, 2003. "Sport and Gambling," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(4), pages 598-611, Winter.
  60. Bibhas Saha, 2015. "An Economist’s Perspective on Match-fixing and Self-sabotage in Contests," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 4(2), pages 77-85, July.
  61. A. Schnytzer & V. Makropoulou & M. Lamers, 2012. "Pricing Decisions and Insider Trading in Horse Betting Markets," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/772, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  62. Michael Cain & David Law & David Peel, 2000. "The Favourite‐Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football betting," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 25-36, February.
  63. Ruud H. Koning & Renske Zijm, 2023. "Betting market efficiency and prediction in binary choice models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 135-148, June.
  64. Kovalchik, Stephanie & Reid, Machar, 2019. "A calibration method with dynamic updates for within-match forecasting of wins in tennis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 756-766.
  65. McAlvanah, Patrick & Moul, Charles C., 2013. "The house doesn’t always win: Evidence of anchoring among Australian bookies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 87-99.
  66. Alistair Bruce & David Marginson, 2014. "Power, Not Fear: A Collusion-Based Account of Betting Market Inefficiency," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 77-97, February.
  67. Zhang, Chi & Thijssen, Jacco, 2022. "On sticky bookmaking as a learning device in horse-racing betting markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  68. Brown, Alasdair & Yang, Fuyu, 2019. "The wisdom of large and small crowds: Evidence from repeated natural experiments in sports betting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 288-296.
  69. Craig A. Depken II & John M. Gandar & Dmitry A. Shapiro, 2022. "Set-level Strategic and Psychological Momentum in Best-of-three-set Professional Tennis Matches," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 598-623, June.
  70. Nikolaos Vlastakis & George Dotsis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2009. "How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 426-444.
  71. John Fry & Andrew Brint, 2017. "Bubbles, Blind-Spots and Brexit," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-15, July.
  72. Leighton Vaughan Williams & David Paton, 1998. "Why are some favourite-longshot biases positive and others negative?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(11), pages 1505-1510.
  73. Michael Cain & David Law & David Peel, 2002. "Is one price enough to value a state-contingent asset correctly? Evidence from a gambling market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 33-38.
  74. Alasdair Brown & Fuyu Yang, 2015. "Adverse Selection, Speed Bumps and Asset Market Quality," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 070, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  75. M. Cain & D. Law & D. A. Peel, 2003. "Some analysis of the properties of the Harville place formulae when allowance is made for the favourite-long shot bias employing Shin Win probabilities," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 53-57.
  76. Stefan Winter & Martin Kukuk, 2008. "Do horses like vodka and sponging? - On market manipulation and the favourite-longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 75-87.
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