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Home-field advantage and biased prediction markets in English soccer

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  • Guy Elaad

Abstract

Results of the present study show a larger rate of home wins in the upper leagues of English professional soccer as compared to the lower leagues. By testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis on the online betting markets, home-field bias was found to be over-predicted in League One and League Two (the third and fourth divisions) relative to the premier league. The analysis is based on odds set by 51 different bookmakers for the outcomes of 16,407 soccer matches from the top four divisions in England between seasons 2010/11 and 2017/18.

Suggested Citation

  • Guy Elaad, 2020. "Home-field advantage and biased prediction markets in English soccer," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(14), pages 1170-1174, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:27:y:2020:i:14:p:1170-1174
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2019.1675861
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca, 2019. "Efficiency of online football betting markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 712-721.
    2. Elaad, Guy & Reade, J. James & Singleton, Carl, 2020. "Information, prices and efficiency in an online betting market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
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    10. Nikolaos Vlastakis & George Dotsis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2009. "How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 426-444.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2020. "Betting Market Efficiency in the Presence of Unfamiliar Shocks: The Case of Ghost Games during the Covid-19 Pandemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 8526, CESifo.
    2. Tadgh Hegarty, 2021. "Information and price efficiency in the absence of home crowd advantage," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(21), pages 1902-1907, December.

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