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Recreational versus professional bettors: Performance differences and efficiency implications

Author

Listed:
  • Bruce, A.C.
  • Johnson, J.E.V.
  • Peirson, J.

Abstract

Using a novel dataset, which allows comparisons across heterogeneous sub-groups of pari-mutuel bettors, we demonstrate significant behaviour and performance distinctions between recreational and professional investors. Professionals’ ability to earn abnormal returns on short odds horses in high volume markets challenges the existing empirical consensus, which offers very limited evidence of betting market inefficiency. The results offer important lessons for betting operators and regulators and highlight the potential for similar avenues of investigation in other speculative markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce, A.C. & Johnson, J.E.V. & Peirson, J., 2012. "Recreational versus professional bettors: Performance differences and efficiency implications," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 172-174.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:114:y:2012:i:2:p:172-174
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.10.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Asch, Peter & Malkiel, Burton G. & Quandt, Richard E., 1982. "Racetrack betting and informed behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 187-194, July.
    2. Raymond D. Sauer, 1998. "The Economics of Wagering Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2021-2064, December.
    3. repec:bla:econom:v:52:y:1985:i:27:p:295-304 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Alistair C. Bruce & Johnnie E. V. Johnson & John D. Peirson & Jiejun Yu, 2009. "An Examination of the Determinants of Biased Behaviour in a Market for State Contingent Claims," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 282-303, April.
    5. Les Coleman, 2004. "New light on the longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 315-326.
    6. Vaughan Williams,Leighton (ed.), 2005. "Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521816038.
    7. David Peel & David Law, 2009. "A More General Non‐expected Utility Model as an Explanation of Gambling Outcomes for Individuals and Markets," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 251-263, April.
    8. repec:bla:econom:v:56:y:1989:i:223:p:323-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Shin, Hyun Song, 1993. "Measuring the Incidence of Insider Trading in a Market for State-Contingent Claims," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(420), pages 1141-1153, September.
    10. Michael Cain & David Law & David Peel, 2003. "The Favourite‐Longshot Bias, Bookmaker Margins and Insider Trading in a Variety of Betting Markets," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 263-273, July.
    11. Thaler, Richard H & Ziemba, William T, 1988. "Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 161-174, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Restocchi, Valerio & McGroarty, Frank & Gerding, Enrico & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2018. "It takes all sorts: A heterogeneous agent explanation for prediction market mispricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(2), pages 556-569.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Betting; Horse racing; Efficient markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services

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