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Characterising the financial cycle: a multivariate and time-varying approach

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Cited by:

  1. Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Papers 1038, World Trade Institute.
  2. Lang, Jan Hannes & Welz, Peter, 2018. "Semi-structural credit gap estimation," Working Paper Series 2194, European Central Bank.
  3. Kockerols, Thore & Kok, Christoffer, 2019. "Leaning against the wind: macroprudential policy and the financial cycle," Working Paper Series 2223, European Central Bank.
  4. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," Discussion Papers 48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  5. Milan Christian de Wet, 2021. "Modelling the Australasian Financial Cycle: A Markov-Regime Switching Approach," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 14(1), pages 69-79, June.
  6. Terhi Jokipii & Reto Nyffeler & Stéphane Riederer, 2021. "Exploring BIS credit-to-GDP gap critiques: the Swiss case," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-19, December.
  7. Lang, Jan Hannes & Forletta, Marco, 2020. "Cyclical systemic risk and downside risks to bank profitability," Working Paper Series 2405, European Central Bank.
  8. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor & Felix Ward, 2019. "Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 109-150, March.
  9. Rob Luginbuhl, 2020. "Estimation of the Financial Cycle with a Rank-Reduced Multivariate State-Space Model," CPB Discussion Paper 409, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  10. Galati, Gabriele & Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & Vlekke, Marente, 2016. "Measuring financial cycles in a model-based analysis: Empirical evidence for the United States and the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 83-87.
  11. Deng, Chuang & Zhao, Xiuyi & Xu, Man, 2022. "Financial cycle and the effect of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
  12. Kok, Christoffer & Mirza, Harun & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2019. "Macro stress testing euro area banks’ fees and commissions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 97-119.
  13. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2022. "Financial Cycles in Euro Area Economies: A Cross‐Country Perspective Using Wavelet Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 569-593, June.
  14. Schüler, Yves S., 2018. "On the cyclical properties of Hamilton's regression filter," Discussion Papers 03/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  15. Harendra Behera & Saurabh Sharma, 2022. "Characterizing India’s Financial Cycle," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(2), pages 152-183, June.
  16. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Policy, Monetary & Stability, Financial & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas , 2023. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
  17. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Lukas Wiechers, 2024. "An early indicator for anomalous stock market performance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 105-118, January.
  18. Ciukaj Radosław & Kil Krzysztof, 2020. "Determinants of the non-performing loan ratio in the European Union banking sectors with a high level of impaired loans," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(1), pages 22-45, March.
  19. Beirne, John, 2020. "Financial cycles in asset markets and regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 358-374.
  20. Schüler, Yves S. & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Hiebert, Paul, 2017. "Coherent financial cycles for G-7 countries: Why extending credit can be an asset," ESRB Working Paper Series 43, European Systemic Risk Board.
  21. Andrew Lee-Poy, 2018. "Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-34, Bank of Canada.
  22. Paolo Guarda & Alban Moura, 2019. "Measuring real and financial cycles in Luxembourg: An unobserved components approach," BCL working papers 126, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  23. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2019. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 568-591.
  24. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
  25. Tihana Škrinjarić & Maja Bukovšak, 2022. "New Indicators of Credit Gap in Croatia: Improving the Calibration of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer," Working Papers 69, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
  26. Che, Ming & Zhu, Zixiang & Li, Yujia, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty: Different roles in China's financial cycle," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  27. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
  28. Markus Behn & Carsten Detken & Tuomas Peltonen & Willem Schudel, 2017. "Predicting Vulnerabilities in the EU Banking Sector: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(4), pages 147-189, December.
  29. Jasper de Winter & Siem Jan Koopman & Irma Hindrayanto & Anjali Chouhan, 2017. "Modeling the business and financial cycle in a multivariate structural time series model," DNB Working Papers 573, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  30. Grintzalis, Ioannis & Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2017. "The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies: measures of finance-adjusted output gaps," Working Paper Series 2034, European Central Bank.
  31. Bochmann, Paul & Hiebert, Paul & Schüler, Yves & Segoviano, Miguel A., 2024. "Latent fragility: Conditioning banks' joint probability of default on the financial cycle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  32. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Temporal homogeneity between financial stress and the economic cycle," MPRA Paper 91119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2016. "How distinct are financial cycles from business cycles?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 26.
  34. Guido Bulligan & Lorenzo Burlon & Davide Delle Monache & Andrea Silvestrini, 2019. "Real and financial cycles: estimates using unobserved component models for the Italian economy," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 28(3), pages 541-569, September.
  35. Yan, Chuanpeng & Huang, Kevin X.D., 2020. "Financial cycle and business cycle: An empirical analysis based on the data from the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 693-701.
  36. Fredj Jawadi & Hachmi Ben Ameur & Stephanie Bigou & Alexis Flageollet, 2022. "Does the Real Business Cycle Help Forecast the Financial Cycle?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(4), pages 1529-1546, December.
  37. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 132-144.
  38. Bence Mérõ, 2019. "Novel Modelling of the Operation of the Financial Intermediary System – Agent-based Macro Models," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 18(3), pages 83-113.
  39. Jorge E. Galán & Javier Mencía, 2018. "Empirical assessment of alternative structural methods for identifying cyclical systemic risk in Europe," Working Papers 1825, Banco de España.
  40. Behn, Markus & Gross, Marco & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2016. "Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy," ESRB Working Paper Series 17, European Systemic Risk Board.
  41. Brian Micallef, 2016. "Property price misalignment with fundamentals in Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
  42. Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2022. "Financial cycles across G7 economies: A view from wavelet analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
  43. Thore Kockerols & Erling Motzfeldt Kravik & Yasin Mimir, 2021. "Leaning against persistent financial cycles with occasional crises," Working Paper 2021/11, Norges Bank.
  44. Christian Menden & Christian R. Proaño, 2017. "Dissecting the financial cycle with dynamic factor models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1965-1994, December.
  45. Voutilainen, Ville, 2017. "Wavelet decomposition of the financial cycle: An early warning system for financial tsunamis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2017, Bank of Finland.
  46. Rachida Hennani & John Theal, 2019. "Characterizing the Luxembourg financial cycle: Alternatives to statistical filters," BCL working papers 133, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  47. Kunovac, Davor & Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2018. "Financial cycles in euro area economies: A cross-country perspective," Discussion Papers 04/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  48. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  49. Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2022. "Measuring financial cycles: Empirical evidence for Germany, United Kingdom and United States of America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 599-630.
  50. Schüler, Yves S., 2018. "Detrending and financial cycle facts across G7 countries: mind a spurious medium term!," Working Paper Series 2138, European Central Bank.
  51. Piotr Bańbuła & Marcin Pietrzak, 2017. "Early warning models of banking crises applicable to non-crisis countries," NBP Working Papers 257, Narodowy Bank Polski.
  52. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
  53. Fendoğlu, Salih, 2017. "Credit cycles and capital flows: Effectiveness of the macroprudential policy framework in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 110-128.
  54. Claudio Borio, 2017. "Secular stagnation or financial cycle drag?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 87-98, April.
  55. Scharnagl Michael & Mandler Martin, 2019. "Real and Financial Cycles in Euro Area Economies: Results from Wavelet Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(5-6), pages 895-916, October.
  56. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  57. Lang, Jan Hannes & Rusnák, Marek & Greiwe, Moritz, 2023. "Medium-term growth-at-risk in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2808, European Central Bank.
  58. Milan Christian Wet & Ilse Botha, 2022. "Constructing and Characterising the Aggregate South African Financial Cycle: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 37-67, March.
  59. Jorge E. Galán, 2019. "Measuring credit-to-gdp gaps. The hodrick-prescott filter revisited," Occasional Papers 1906, Banco de España.
  60. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin, 2022. "Early warning or too late? A (pseudo-)real-time identification of leading indicators of financial stress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  61. Wang, Bo & Xiao, Yang, 2023. "The term effect of financial cycle variables on GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  62. Schüler, Yves S., 2020. "On the credit-to-GDP gap and spurious medium-term cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
  63. Piotr Bańbuła & Marcin Pietrzak, 2021. "Early Warning Models of Banking Crises: VIX and High Profits," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(4), pages 381-403, December.
  64. Škare, Marinko & Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata, 2020. "Multi-channel singular-spectrum analysis of financial cycles in ten developed economies for 1970–2018," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 567-575.
  65. Lenarčič, Črt, 2021. "Estimating business and financial cycles in Slovenia," MPRA Paper 109977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  66. Veysel KARAGOL & Burhan DOÄžAN, 2021. "Interaction between business and financial cycles: evidence from Turkey," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 12, pages 123-150, December.
  67. Hiebert, Paul & Jaccard, Ivan & Schüler, Yves, 2018. "Contrasting financial and business cycles: Stylized facts and candidate explanations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 72-80.
  68. Berry A. Harahap & Pakasa Bary & Anggita Cinditya M. Kusuma, 2020. "The Determinants of Indonesia’s Business Cycle," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 215-235.
  69. V. Coudert & J. Idier, 2016. "An Early Warning System for Macro-prudential Policy in France," Working papers 609, Banque de France.
  70. Naďa Blahová, 2019. "Analysis of macroprudential policy approaches in the practice of the Czech Republic [Analýza přístupů makroobezřetnostní politiky v praxi ČR]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(4), pages 31-55.
  71. Rob Luginbuhl, 2020. "Estimation of the Financial Cycle with a Rank-Reduced Multivariate State-Space Model," CPB Discussion Paper 409.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  72. Santander Quino, Camila Miriam, 2022. "Ciclos económicos y financieros: Una aproximación empírica para Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 1/2022, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
  73. Jorge E. Galán & Javier Mencía, 2021. "Model-based indicators for the identification of cyclical systemic risk," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3179-3211, December.
  74. Ashe, Sinéad & Egan, Paul, 2023. "Examining financial and business cycle interaction using cross recurrence plot analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  75. Wolf, Elias & Mokinski, Frieder & Schüler, Yves, 2020. "On adjusting the one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter," Discussion Papers 11/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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