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Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds

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Cited by:

  1. Wright, Jonathan H., 2019. "Some observations on forecasting and policy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1186-1192.
  2. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2013. "Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 213-232.
  3. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
  4. Stan Hurn & Jing Tian & Lina Xu, 2021. "Assessing the Informational Content of Official Australian Bureau of Meteorology Forecasts of Wind Speed," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(319), pages 525-547, December.
  5. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
  6. Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
  7. Jörg Breitung & Malte Knüppel, 2021. "How far can we forecast? Statistical tests of the predictive content," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 369-392, June.
  8. Pablo Pincheira Brown & Nicolás Hardy, 2024. "Correlation‐based tests of predictability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1835-1858, September.
  9. Pedersen, Michael, 2019. "Anomalies in macroeconomic prediction errors–evidence from Chilean private forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1100-1107.
  10. Pablo Pincheira, 2012. "Are Forecast Combinations Efficient?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 661, Central Bank of Chile.
  11. Qu, Ritong & Timmermann, Allan & Zhu, Yinchu, 2024. "Comparing forecasting performance with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 918-941.
  12. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
  13. Hajo Holzmann & Matthias Eulert, 2014. "The role of the information set for forecasting - with applications to risk management," Papers 1404.7653, arXiv.org.
  14. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2016. "Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, with Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 507-532, April.
  15. Natsuki Arai, 2016. "Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 1019-1049, August.
  16. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237, Elsevier.
  17. Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 37/2017, Bank of Finland.
  18. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
  19. Lukas Hoesch & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2023. "Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 355-387, July.
  20. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
  21. Boussios, David & Skorbiansky, Sharon Raszap & MacLachlan, Matthew, 2021. "Evaluating U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Long-Term Forecasts for U.S. Harvested Area," Economic Research Report 327201, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  22. Messina, Jeffrey D. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman, 2015. "What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 54-62.
  23. Thomas Jobert & Lionel Persyn, 2012. "Quelques constats sur les prévisions conjoncturelles de la croissance française," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 122(6), pages 833-849.
  24. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_037 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Ardia, David & Hoogerheide, Lennart F., 2014. "GARCH models for daily stock returns: Impact of estimation frequency on Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 187-190.
  26. Arai, Natsuki, 2014. "Using forecast evaluation to improve the accuracy of the Greenbook forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 12-19.
  27. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2020. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 17-33, March.
  28. Robert P. Lieli & Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu, 2023. "Forecasting with Feedback," Papers 2308.15062, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
  29. Goodwin, Thomas & Tian, Jing, 2017. "A state space approach to evaluate multi-horizon forecasts," Working Papers 2017-15, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
  30. Pablo Pincheira Brown & Nicolás Hardy, 2024. "The mean squared prediction error paradox," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2298-2321, September.
  31. Xavier D'Haultfoeuille & Christophe Gaillac & Arnaud Maurel, 2021. "Rationalizing rational expectations: Characterizations and tests," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 817-842, July.
  32. Boussios, David & Skoriansky, Sharon Raszap & MacLachlan, Matthew, 2021. "Evaluating U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Long-Term Forecasts for U.S. Harvested Area," USDA Miscellaneous 309619, United States Department of Agriculture.
  33. Wang, Yiyao & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 2014. "Asymmetric loss in the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 235-245.
  34. Manganelli, Simone, 2016. "Deciding with judgment," Working Paper Series 1947, European Central Bank.
  35. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "What is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?," Working Papers 22-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  36. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
  37. Heinisch, Katja, 2024. "Step by step - A quarterly evaluation of EU Commission's GDP forecasts," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  38. Clements, Michael P. & Reade, J. James, 2020. "Forecasting and forecast narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1488-1500.
  39. Nathan Goldstein & Ben‐Zion Zilberfarb, 2023. "The closer we get, the better we are?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 364-376, April.
  40. Jing Tian & Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Thomas Goodwin, 2022. "Are internally consistent forecasts rational?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1338-1355, November.
  41. Han Liu & Yongjing Wang & Haiyan Song & Ying Liu, 2023. "Measuring tourism demand nowcasting performance using a monotonicity test," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(5), pages 1302-1327, August.
  42. G. Kontogeorgos & K. Lambrias, 2022. "Evaluating the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections: The first 20 years," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 213-229, March.
  43. Timmermann, Allan & Zhu, Yinchu, 2019. "Comparing Forecasting Performance with Panel Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 13746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  44. Manganelli, Simone, 2021. "Statistical decision functions with judgment," Working Paper Series 2512, European Central Bank.
  45. Siddhartha S. Bora & Ani L. Katchova & Todd H. Kuethe, 2023. "The accuracy and informativeness of agricultural baselines," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(4), pages 1116-1148, August.
  46. Roberto Casarin, 2014. "A Note on Tractable State-Space Model for Symmetric Positive-Definite Matrices," Working Papers 2014:23, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  47. Lennart F. Hoogerheide & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk using Forecasts for Multiple Horizons, a Comment on the Forecast Rationality Tests of A.J. Patton and A. Timmermann," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-131/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  48. Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 510-514, October.
  49. Raïsa Basselier & David Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, April.
  50. Xie, Zixiong & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2016. "Time varying biases and the state of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 716-725.
  51. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 25-29, August.
  52. Manzan, Sebastiano, 2021. "Are professional forecasters Bayesian?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  53. Tian, Jing & Goodwin, Thomas, 2018. "An unobserved component modeling approach to evaluate multi-horizon forecasts," Working Papers 2018-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
  54. repec:ags:aaea22:335690 is not listed on IDEAS
  55. McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  56. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  57. Paulina Ziembińska, 2021. "Quality of Tests of Expectation Formation for Revised Data," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(4), pages 405-453, December.
  58. Qu, Ritong & Timmermann, Allan & Zhu, Yinchu, 2023. "Comparing forecasting performance in cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  59. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2024. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 24-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  60. Charles Rahal, 2015. "Housing Market Forecasting with Factor Combinations," Discussion Papers 15-05r, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  61. Pablo Pincheira, 2012. "A Joint Test of Superior Predictive Ability for Chilean Inflation Forecasts," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(3), pages 04-39, December.
  62. Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "A Critical Review of Posch, J. and F. Rumler (2015), 'Semi-Structural Forecasting of UK Inflation Based on the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve,' Journal of Forecasting 34(2): 145-62," MPRA Paper 65665, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  63. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht & Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2023. "Testing Quantile Forecast Optimality," Papers 2302.02747, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
  64. Thomas L. Hogan, 2022. "The calculus of dissent: Bias and diversity in FOMC projections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 191(1), pages 105-135, April.
  65. Lukasz Gatarek & Lennart Hoogerheide & Koen Hooning & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Censored Posterior and Predictive Likelihood in Left-Tail Prediction for Accurate Value at Risk Estimation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-060/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 06 Mar 2014.
  66. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
  67. Kontogeorgos, Georgios & Lambrias, Kyriacos, 2019. "An analysis of the Eurosystem/ECB projections," Working Paper Series 2291, European Central Bank.
  68. Mr. Romain M Veyrune & Shaoyu Guo, 2019. "Autonomous Factor Forecast Quality: The Case of the Eurosystem," IMF Working Papers 2019/296, International Monetary Fund.
  69. repec:zbw:bofrdp:037 is not listed on IDEAS
  70. Fabian Kruger & Hendrik Plett, 2022. "Prediction intervals for economic fixed-event forecasts," Papers 2210.13562, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
  71. Boussios, David & Skorbiansky, Sharon Raszap & Maclachlan, Matthew, 2021. "Evaluating U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Long-Term Forecasts for U.S. Harvested Area," USDA Miscellaneous 309616, United States Department of Agriculture.
  72. Arai, Natsuki, 2020. "Investigating the inefficiency of the CBO’s budgetary projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1290-1300.
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