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Forecasting with Feedback

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  • Robert P. Lieli
  • Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu

Abstract

Systematically biased forecasts are typically interpreted as evidence of forecasters' irrationality and/or asymmetric loss. In this paper we propose an alternative explanation: when forecasts inform economic policy decisions, and the resulting actions affect the realization of the forecast target itself, forecasts may be optimally biased even under quadratic loss. The result arises in environments in which the forecaster is uncertain about the decision maker's reaction to the forecast, which is presumably the case in most applications. We illustrate the empirical relevance of our theory by reviewing some stylized properties of Green Book inflation forecasts and relating them to the predictions from our model. Our results point out that the presence of policy feedback poses a challenge to traditional tests of forecast rationality.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert P. Lieli & Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu, 2023. "Forecasting with Feedback," Papers 2308.15062, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2308.15062
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert P Lieli & Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu, 2020. "On the Possibility of Informative Equilibria in Futures Markets with Feedback," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1521-1552.
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