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The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies

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  1. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2012. "Smooth transition patterns in the realized stock–bond correlation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 454-464.
  2. Wenna Lu & Laurence Copeland & Yongdeng Xu, 2023. "The pricing of unexpected volatility in the currency market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(17), pages 2032-2046, November.
  3. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael, 2014. "Switching Risk Off: FX Correlations and Risk Premia," CEPR Discussion Papers 10214, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Ivelina Pavlova & Maria E. de Boyrie, 2015. "Carry Trades and Sovereign CDS Spreads: Evidence from Asia‐Pacific Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(11), pages 1067-1087, November.
  5. Copeland, Laurence & Lu, Wenna, 2016. "Dodging the steamroller: Fundamentals versus the carry trade," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 115-131.
  6. Egbers, Tom & Swinkels, Laurens, 2015. "Can implied volatility predict returns on the currency carry trade?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 14-26.
  7. Byrne, Joseph P. & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2022. "The time-varying risk price of currency portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  8. Wellmann, Dennis & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Factors of the term structure of sovereign yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 56-75.
  9. Adrien Verdelhan, 2018. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 375-418, February.
  10. Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2019. "Currency carry trades and the conditional factor model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 198-208.
  11. Jacob Gyntelberg & Andreas Schrimpf, 2011. "FX strategies in periods of distress," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  12. Pasquale Della Corte & Steven J. Riddiough & Lucio Sarno, 2016. "Currency Premia and Global Imbalances," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(8), pages 2161-2193.
  13. Byrne, Joseph P. & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2018. "Common information in carry trade risk factors," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 37-47.
  14. Boudt, Kris & Paulus, Ellen C.S. & Rosenthal, Dale W.R., 2017. "Funding liquidity, market liquidity and TED spread: A two-regime model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 143-158.
  15. Daniel, Kent & Hodrick, Robert J. & Lu, Zhongjin, 2017. "The Carry Trade: Risks and Drawdowns," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 211-262, September.
  16. Makhanya, Kabelo Collen & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla, 2023. "Examining the dependence structure between carry trade and equity market returns in BRICS countries," MPRA Paper 117461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Liu, Chih-Liang & Yang, Hsin-Feng, 2017. "Systemic risk in carry-trade portfolios," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 40-46.
  18. Philipp Matros & Enzo Weber, 2014. "Non-stationary Interest Rate Differentials and the Role of Monetary Policy," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 497-512, September.
  19. Byrne, Joseph P & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2017. "The Time-Varying Risk Price of Currency Carry Trades," MPRA Paper 80788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Cincinelli, Peter & Pellini, Elisabetta & Urga, Giovanni, 2024. "Is there an optimal level of leverage? The case of banks and non-bank institutions in Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  21. Ahmed, Jameel & Straetmans, Stefan, 2015. "Predicting exchange rate cycles utilizing risk factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 112-130.
  22. Sager, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2014. "Generating currency trading rules from the term structure of forward foreign exchange premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 230-250.
  23. Chan, Kalok & Yang, Jian & Zhou, Yinggang, 2018. "Conditional co-skewness and safe-haven currencies: A regime switching approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 58-80.
  24. Laborda, Juan & Laborda, Ricardo & Olmo, Jose, 2014. "Optimal currency carry trade strategies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 52-66.
  25. Souza, Thiago de Oliveira, 2020. "Dollar carry timing," Discussion Papers on Economics 10/2020, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
  26. Charlotte Christiansen & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "A comprehensive look at financial volatility prediction by economic variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 956-977, September.
  27. Mayu Kikuchi & Alfred Wong & Jiayue Zhang, 2019. "Risk of window dressing: quarter-end spikes in the Japanese yen Libor-OIS spread," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 149-166, December.
  28. Atanasov, Victoria & Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Currency excess returns and global downside market risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 268-285.
  29. Cenedese, Gino & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2014. "Foreign exchange risk and the predictability of carry trade returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 302-313.
  30. Nitschka, Thomas, 2018. "Bond market evidence of time variation in exposures to global risk factors and the role of US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 44-54.
  31. Tim A. Kroencke & Felix Schindler & Andreas Schrimpf, 2014. "International Diversification Benefits with Foreign Exchange Investment Styles," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(5), pages 1847-1883.
  32. Lettau, Martin & Maggiori, Matteo & Weber, Michael, 2014. "Conditional risk premia in currency markets and other asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 197-225.
  33. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Li, Yan, 2024. "The out-of-sample performance of carry trades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  34. Hoffmann, Mathias & Studer-Suter, Rahel, 2017. "Systematic consumption risk in currency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 187-208.
  35. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Hossein Hassani & Xu Huang, 2020. "Time-Varying Risk Aversion and the Profitability of Carry Trades: Evidence from the Cross-Quantilogram," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, March.
  36. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3477-3500, December.
  37. Charles W. Calomiris & Harry Mamaysky, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes," NBER Working Papers 25714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Habib, Maurizio M. & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 50-64.
  39. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Sefora Motena Rangoanana, 2022. "Carry Trade and Capital Market Returns in South Africa," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-13, October.
  40. Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vitale, 2016. "Carry Trades, Order Flow, and the Forward Bias Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1113-1134, September.
  41. Victoria Dobrynskaya, 2014. "Downside Market Risk of Carry Trades," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(5), pages 1885-1913.
  42. Doskov, Nikolay & Swinkels, Laurens, 2015. "Empirical evidence on the currency carry trade, 1900–2012," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 370-389.
  43. Emilio Colombo & Gianfranco Forte & Roberto Rossignoli, 2019. "Carry Trade Returns with Support Vector Machines," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 483-504, September.
  44. Demirer, Riza & Yuksel, Asli & Yuksel, Aydin, 2022. "Time-varying risk aversion and currency excess returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  45. Coelho dos Santos, Marcelo Bittencourt & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Figueiredo Pinto, Antonio Carlos, 2016. "Evidence of risk premiums in emerging market carry trade currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 103-115.
  46. Bekaert, Geert & Panayotov, George, 2020. "Good Carry, Bad Carry," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(4), pages 1063-1094, June.
  47. Yang Chang, 2014. "A Consistent Approach to Modelling the Interest Rate Market Anomalies Post the Global Financial Crisis," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 18, July-Dece.
  48. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Measures of global uncertainty and carry-trade excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 212-227.
  49. Ece D. Erol & Ibrahim Erol, 2015. "Sanayi Ulkelerindeki Kuresel Doviz Kuru Savaslarinin Gelisme Yolundaki Ulkelere Etkisi," EconWorld Working Papers 15001, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, revised Dec 2015.
  50. Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021. "Asymmetric information risk in FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.
  51. Ali Shehadeh & Peter Erdos & Youwei Li & Michael Moore, 2016. "US Dollar Carry Trades in the Era of "Cheap Money"," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(5), pages 374-404, October.
  52. Alessio Anzuini & Fabio Fornari, 2012. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Carry Trade Activity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 468-488, August.
  53. Wu, Chih-Chiang & Wu, Chang-Che, 2017. "The asymmetry in carry trade and the U.S. dollar," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 304-313.
  54. Das, Sougata & Kadapakkam, Palani-Rajan & Tse, Yiuman, 2013. "Is carry-trade a viable alternative asset class?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 247-257.
  55. Ülkü, Numan & Fatullayev, Sabutay & Diachenko, Daria, 2016. "Can risk-rebalancing explain the negative correlation between stock return differential and currency? Or, does source status drive it?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 28-54.
  56. Yang Chang, 2014. "A Consistent Approach to Modelling the Interest Rate Market Anomalies Post the Global Financial Crisis," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2014, January-A.
  57. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Global macro risks in currency excess returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 300-315.
  58. Lee, Kyuseok, 2018. "Systematic exchange rate variation: Where does the dollar factor come from?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 288-307.
  59. Gordon Schulze, 2021. "Carry Trade Returns and Segmented Risk Pricing," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 49(1), pages 23-40, March.
  60. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2013. "Predictability of currency carry trades and asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 139-163.
  61. Yiuman Tse & Lin Zhao, 2011. "The Relationship between Currency Carry Trades and U.S. Stocks The article examines the relationship between daily returns of currency carry trades and U.S. stocks from January 1995 through September ," Working Papers 0005, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
  62. Cheong, Calvin W.H. & Sinnakkannu, Jothee & Ramasamy, Sockalingam, 2017. "On the predictability of carry trade returns: The case of the Chinese Yuan," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 358-376.
  63. Vistesen, Claus, 2008. "Of Low Yielders and Carry Trading – the JPY and CHF as Market Risk Sentiment Gauges," MPRA Paper 9952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  64. Cho, Dooyeon, 2021. "On the predictability of the distribution of excess returns in currency markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 511-530.
  65. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
  66. Mohammadreza Tavakoli Baghdadabad & Girijasankar Mallik, 2021. "Market news co-moments and currency returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1819-1863, October.
  67. Fabian Ackermann & Walt Pohl & Karl Schmedders, 2017. "Optimal and Naive Diversification in Currency Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3347-3360, October.
  68. Hong-Ghi Min & Judith A. McDonald & Sang-Ook Shin, 2016. "What Makes a Safe Haven? Equity and Currency Returns for Six OECD Countries during the Financial Crisis," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(2), pages 365-402, November.
  69. Grisse, Christian & Nitschka, Thomas, 2015. "On financial risk and the safe haven characteristics of Swiss franc exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 153-164.
  70. Chang‐Che Wu & MeiChi Huang & Chih‐Chiang Wu, 2021. "The role of asymmetry and dynamics in carry trade and general financial markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 331-353, May.
  71. Shehadeh, Ali & Li, Youwei & Moore, Michael, 2016. "The Forward Premium Bias, Carry Trade Return and the Risks of Volatility and Liquidity," MPRA Paper 71709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  72. Arash Aloosh & Geert Bekaert, 2022. "Currency Factors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4042-4064, June.
  73. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Tebogo Maake, 2021. "The Relationship between Carry Trade and Asset Markets in South Africa," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, July.
  74. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2018. "Uncertainty, currency excess returns, and risk reversals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 228-241.
  75. Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Lee, Yun-Huan & Lu, Yang-Cheng & Wang, Yu-Chun, 2020. "States of psychological anchors and price behavior of Japanese yen futures," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  76. Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Chang, Shu-Lien, 2013. "Spillovers of currency carry trade returns, market risk sentiment, and U.S. market returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 197-216.
  77. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2014. "Quantiles of the realized stock–bond correlation and links to the macroeconomy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 321-331.
  78. Erik Schlogl & Yang Chang, 2012. "Carry Trade and Liquidity Risk: Evidence from Forward and Cross-Currency Swap Markets," Research Paper Series 310, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  79. Dr. Matthias Gubler, 2014. "Carry Trade Activities: A Multivariate Threshold Model Analysis," Working Papers 2014-06, Swiss National Bank.
  80. Kim, Suk-Joong, 2015. "Australian Dollar carry trades: Time varying probabilities and determinants," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 64-75.
  81. Evans, Martin, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Liquidity Risk," MPRA Paper 102702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  82. Ames, Matthew & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Peters, Gareth W., 2017. "Violations of uncovered interest rate parity and international exchange rate dependences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 162-187.
  83. Suh, Sangwon, 2019. "Unexploited currency carry trade profit opportunity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 236-254.
  84. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Casas, Isabel, 2013. "Nonparametric correlation models for portfolio allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2268-2283.
  85. Cheng, Xin & Chen, Hongyi & Zhou, Yinggang, 2021. "Is the renminbi a safe-haven currency? Evidence from conditional coskewness and cokurtosis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  86. Ulm, M. & Hambuckers, J., 2022. "Do interest rate differentials drive the volatility of exchange rates? Evidence from an extended stochastic volatility model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 125-148.
  87. Abankwa, Samuel & Blenman, Lloyd P., 2021. "Measuring liquidity risk effects on carry trades across currencies and regimes," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  88. Byrne, Joseph P. & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2021. "The conditional volatility premium on currency portfolios," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  89. Claus VISTESEN, 2009. "Carry Trade Fundamentals And The Financial Crisis 2007-2010," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(2(8)_ Sum).
  90. Huang, Wenqian & Ranaldo, Angelo & Schrimpf, Andreas & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2022. "Constrained Dealers and Market Efficiency," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264054, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  91. Cepni, Oguzhan & Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan & Guney, Ibrahim Ethem & Yilmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2023. "Do the carry trades respond to geopolitical risks? Evidence from BRICS countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
  92. Orlov, Vitaly, 2016. "Currency momentum, carry trade, and market illiquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-11.
  93. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2014. "The long-run component of foreign exchange volatility and stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 268-284.
  94. Fan, Zhenzhen & Paseka, Alexander & Qi, Zhen & Zhang, Qi, 2022. "Currency carry trade: The decline in performance after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  95. Mulder, Arjen & Tims, Ben, 2018. "Conditioning carry trades: Less risk, more return," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-19.
  96. Ranaldo, Angelo & de Magistris, Paolo Santucci, 2022. "Liquidity in the global currency market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 859-883.
  97. Matthew Ames & Gareth W. Peters & Guillaume Bagnarosa & Ioannis Kosmidis, 2014. "Upside and Downside Risk Exposures of Currency Carry Trades via Tail Dependence," Papers 1406.4322, arXiv.org.
  98. Alessio Anzuini & Francesca Brusa, 2016. "Carry trades and exchange rate volatility: a TVAR approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1046, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  99. Melk C. Bucher, 2020. "Conditional currency hedging," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(4), pages 897-923, December.
  100. Pasquale Della Corte & Steven J. Riddiough & Lucio Sarno, 2016. "Currency Premia and Global Imbalances," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(8), pages 2161-2193.
  101. Aydanur GACENER-ATIŞ & Deniz ERER, 2019. "Effects of Capital Flows on Carry Trade Activities: The Case of TurkeyAbstract: Carry trade is described as the capital flow coming into a country based on interest rate differential. A negative chang," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(42).
  102. Ülkü, Numan & Karpova, Yekaterina, 2014. "Do international equity investors rebalance to manage currency exposure? A study of Greece foreign investor flows data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 150-169.
  103. Yazid M Sharaiha & Kristoffer Kittilsen Johansson, 2014. "The state-dependent time variation in the value premium," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(2), pages 150-161, April.
  104. Angelo Ranaldo & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2018. "Trading Volume, Illiquidity and Commonalities in FX Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1823, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Oct 2019.
  105. Dupuy, Philippe, 2015. "The tail risk premia of the carry trades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 123-145.
  106. Lu, Helen & Jacobsen, Ben, 2016. "Cross-asset return predictability: Carry trades, stocks and commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 62-87.
  107. Doukas, John A. & Zhang, Hao, 2013. "The performance of NDF carry trades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 172-190.
  108. Miikka Kaurijoki & Jussi Nikkinen & Janne Äijö, 2015. "Return‐Implied Volatility Dynamics of High and Low Yielding Currencies," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(11), pages 1026-1041, November.
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