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Quantiles of the realized stock–bond correlation and links to the macroeconomy

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  • Aslanidis, Nektarios
  • Christiansen, Charlotte

Abstract

This paper adopts quantile regressions to scrutinize the realized stock–bond correlation based upon high frequency returns. The paper provides in-sample and out-of-sample analysis and considers factors constructed from a large number of macro-finance predictors well-known from the return predictability literature. Strong in-sample predictability is obtained from the factor quantile model. Out-of-sample the quantile factor model outperforms benchmark models.

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  • Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2014. "Quantiles of the realized stock–bond correlation and links to the macroeconomy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 321-331.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:28:y:2014:i:c:p:321-331
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2014.03.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen, 2017. "Flight to Safety from European Stock Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2017-38, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Gokmenoglu, Korhan K. & Hadood, Abobaker Al.Al., 2020. "Impact of US unconventional monetary policy on dynamic stock-bond correlations: Portfolio rebalancing and signalling channel effects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    3. Refk Selmi & Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "A Copula-Based Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Approach to Modeling Dependence Structure between Stock and Bond Returns: Evidence from Historical Data of India, South Africa, UK and US," Working Papers 201747, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Scholz, Michael & Sperlich, Stefan & Nielsen, Jens Perch, 2016. "Nonparametric long term prediction of stock returns with generated bond yields," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-96.
    5. Fang, Libing & Yu, Honghai & Huang, Yingbo, 2018. "The role of investor sentiment in the long-term correlation between U.S. stock and bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 127-139.
    6. Jammazi, Rania & Ferrer, Román & Jareño, Francisco & Hammoudeh, Shawkat M., 2017. "Main driving factors of the interest rate-stock market Granger causality," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 260-280.
    7. Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Lee Kim, Yea & Wang, Jinghua, 2019. "Who poisons the pool? Time-varying asymmetric and nonlinear causal inference between low-risk and high-risk bonds markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 136-147.
    8. Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen & Christos S. Savva, 2021. "Quantile Risk–Return Trade-Off," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, June.
    9. Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2021. "The structure and degree of dependence in government bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Fang, Libing & Yu, Honghai & Li, Lei, 2017. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on the long-term correlation between U.S. stock and bond markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 139-145.
    11. Juan Carlos Reboredo & Nader Naifar, 2017. "Do Islamic Bond (Sukuk) Prices Reflect Financial and Policy Uncertainty? A Quantile Regression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 1535-1546, July.
    12. Mori Kogid & Jaratin Lily & Rozilee Asid & James M. Alin & Dullah Mulok, 2022. "Volatility spillover and dynamic co-movement of foreign direct investment between Malaysia and China and developed countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 131-148, February.
    13. Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "News implied volatility and the stock-bond nexus: Evidence from historical data for the USA and the UK markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 47, pages 76-90.
    14. Yang, Ann Shawing, 2020. "Misinformation corrections of corporate news: Corporate clarification announcements," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    15. Dimic, Nebojsa & Kiviaho, Jarno & Piljak, Vanja & Äijö, Janne, 2016. "Impact of financial market uncertainty and macroeconomic factors on stock–bond correlation in emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-51.
    16. Devpura, Neluka & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2021. "Bond return predictability: Evidence from 25 OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Ngene, Geoffrey M., 2021. "What drives dynamic connectedness of the U.S equity sectors during different business cycles?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    18. Zhenxi Chen & Jan F. Kiviet & Weihong Huang, 2015. "On the integration of China's main stock exchange with the international financial market," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1505, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    19. Lin, Fu-Lai & Yang, Sheng-Yung & Marsh, Terry & Chen, Yu-Fen, 2018. "Stock and bond return relations and stock market uncertainty: Evidence from wavelet analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 285-294.
    20. Mohammad Alomari & Abdel Razzaq Al rababa’a & Ghaith El-Nader & Ahmad Alkhataybeh, 2021. "Who’s behind the wheel? The role of social and media news in driving the stock–bond correlation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 959-1007, October.
    21. Alex Sclip & Alberto Dreassi & Stefano Miani & Andrea Paltrinieri, 2016. "Dynamic correlations and volatility linkages between stocks and sukuk: Evidence from international markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 34-44, November.
    22. Harumi Ohmi & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2016. "Trends in stock-bond correlations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 536-552, February.
    23. McMillan, David G., 2019. "Cross-asset relations, correlations and economic implications," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 60-78.
    24. Konstantinos Gkillas & Christoforos Konstantatos & Costas Siriopoulos, 2021. "Uncertainty Due to Infectious Diseases and Stock–Bond Correlation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-18, April.
    25. Sclip, Alex & Dreassi, Alberto & Miani, Stefano & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2016. "Dynamic correlations and volatility linkages between stocks and sukuk: Evidence from international markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 34-44.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Realized stock–bond correlation; Quantile regressions; Macro-finance variables; Factor analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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