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Carry Trades and Sovereign CDS Spreads: Evidence from Asia‐Pacific Markets

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  • Ivelina Pavlova
  • Maria E. de Boyrie

Abstract

This article extends the current literature on currency carry trades by investigating the first and second moment interactions between carry trade returns and changes in sovereign credit default swap spreads. Using a VAR‐EGARCH model and a sample of nine Asia‐Pacific currencies, we examine the relation between sovereign spreads and carry trade returns with and without the inclusion of the 2008 global financial crisis period. Our results show that carry trade returns and sovereign spread changes are negatively correlated, with Granger causality running in both directions. We also find significant volatility spillover effects. High conditional correlation between the currency component of carry trades and sovereign spreads is documented, which is amplified if the crisis period is considered. Global risk affects carry trade volatility more during turbulent periods. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 35:1067–1087, 2015

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  • Ivelina Pavlova & Maria E. de Boyrie, 2015. "Carry Trades and Sovereign CDS Spreads: Evidence from Asia‐Pacific Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(11), pages 1067-1087, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:35:y:2015:i:11:p:1067-1087
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    Cited by:

    1. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Po-Hon Chau, 2016. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and US Dollar-denominated Sovereign Bond Prices in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 072016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Huthaifa Sameeh Alqaralleh, 2024. "From volatility to stability: understanding the role of macroeconomic factors in sovereign CDS spreads," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(3), pages 665-707, September.
    3. Hui, Cho-Hoi & Lo, Chi-Fai & Chau, Po-Hon, 2017. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and United States Dollar-Denominated Sovereign Bond Prices in Emerging Markets," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 530, Asian Development Bank.
    4. Hai Lin & Binh Hoang Nguyen & Junbo Wang & Cheng Zhang, 2023. "Credit default swaps and firm risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1668-1692, November.

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