IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v94y2024ics1057521924002552.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is there an optimal level of leverage? The case of banks and non-bank institutions in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Cincinelli, Peter
  • Pellini, Elisabetta
  • Urga, Giovanni

Abstract

In this paper, we evaluate whether banks and non-banks size and systemic risk are affected by their level of leverage. We implement a threshold analysis to a sample of European traditional banks and non-banks (Finance services and Real Estate Finance Services) over 2006:1-2019:4. We find that Finance Services show positive co-movements between leverage and size, independently of the level of leverage, while for traditional banks the level of leverage matters. Both banks and non-banks show positive correlation between leverage and systemic risk. During periods of crisis, SRISK measure of systemic risk allows to identify an optimal level of leverage.

Suggested Citation

  • Cincinelli, Peter & Pellini, Elisabetta & Urga, Giovanni, 2024. "Is there an optimal level of leverage? The case of banks and non-bank institutions in Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:94:y:2024:i:c:s1057521924002552
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103323
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521924002552
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103323?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Driffield, Nigel & Pal, Sarmistha & Roland, Isabelle, 2012. "When does leverage hurt productivity growth? A firm-level analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1674-1694.
    2. Aymanns, Christoph & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2015. "The dynamics of the leverage cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 155-179.
    3. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    4. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    5. A. Baglioni & E. Beccalli & A. Boitani & A. Monticini, 2013. "Is the leverage of European banks procyclical?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1251-1266, December.
    6. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    7. Baltzer, Markus & Koehl, Alexandra & Reitz, Stefan, 2020. "Procyclical leverage in Europe and its role in asset pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    8. Danielsson, Jon & James, Kevin R. & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2016. "Model risk of risk models," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 79-91.
    9. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
    10. Acharya, Viral V. & Schnabl, Philipp & Suarez, Gustavo, 2013. "Securitization without risk transfer," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 515-536.
    11. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    12. López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura, 2012. "Short-term wholesale funding and systemic risk: A global CoVaR approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3150-3162.
    13. Adrian, Tobias & Borowiecki, Karol Jan & Tepper, Alexander, 2022. "A leverage-based measure of financial stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    14. Reint Gropp & Florian Heider, 2010. "The Determinants of Bank Capital Structure," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(4), pages 587-622.
    15. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Tyler Muir, 2014. "Financial Intermediaries and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2557-2596, December.
    16. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    17. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 159-214.
    18. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-1244, September.
    19. Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo & Söderlind, Paul, 2011. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(4), pages 1107-1125, August.
    20. Acharya, Viral V. & Thakor, Anjan V., 2016. "The dark side of liquidity creation: Leverage and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 4-21.
    21. Elliott, David & Meisenzahl, Ralf R. & Peydró, José-Luis, 2024. "Nonbank lenders as global shock absorbers: Evidence from US monetary policy spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    22. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Financial intermediation, asset prices, and macroeconomic dynamics," Staff Reports 422, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    23. Bálint L. Horváth & Wolf Wagner, 2017. "The Disturbing Interaction between Countercyclical Capital Requirements and Systemic Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1485-1511.
    24. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    25. Bostandzic, Denefa & Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2018. "Why do some banks contribute more to global systemic risk?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 17-40.
    26. Caporin, Massimiliano & Costola, Michele & Garibal, Jean-Charles & Maillet, Bertrand, 2022. "Systemic risk and severe economic downturns: A targeted and sparse analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    27. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    28. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent & Yesiltas, Sevcan, 2012. "Leverage across firms, banks, and countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 284-298.
    29. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Dynamic Leverage Asset Pricing," Staff Reports 625, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    30. Sedunov, John, 2016. "What is the systemic risk exposure of financial institutions?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 71-87.
    31. Bellavite Pellegrini, Carlo & Cincinelli, Peter & Meoli, Michele & Urga, Giovanni, 2022. "The role of shadow banking in systemic risk in the European financial system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    32. Bellavite Pellegrini, Carlo & Cincinelli, Peter & Meoli, Michele & Urga, Giovanni, 2022. "The contribution of (shadow) banks and real estate to systemic risk in China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    33. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    34. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    35. Damar, H. Evren & Meh, Césaire A. & Terajima, Yaz, 2013. "Leverage, balance-sheet size and wholesale funding," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 639-662.
    36. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-9," NBER Working Papers 18335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Sagara Dewasurendra & Pedro Judice & Qiji Zhu, 2019. "The Optimum Leverage Level of the Banking Sector," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-30, May.
    38. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119289, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    39. repec:oup:rfinst:v:21:y:2017:i:4:p:1485-1511. is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Beccalli, Elena & Boitani, Andrea & Di Giuliantonio, Sonia, 2015. "Leverage pro-cyclicality and securitization in US banking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 200-230.
    41. Cincinelli, Peter & Pellini, Elisabetta & Urga, Giovanni, 2021. "Leverage and systemic risk pro-cyclicality in the Chinese financial system," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cincinelli, Peter & Pellini, Elisabetta & Urga, Giovanni, 2021. "Leverage and systemic risk pro-cyclicality in the Chinese financial system," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Tobias Adrian & Nellie Liang, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Financial Conditions, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 73-131, January.
    3. Beccalli, Elena & Boitani, Andrea & Di Giuliantonio, Sonia, 2015. "Leverage pro-cyclicality and securitization in US banking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 200-230.
    4. Bellavite Pellegrini, Carlo & Cincinelli, Peter & Meoli, Michele & Urga, Giovanni, 2022. "The contribution of (shadow) banks and real estate to systemic risk in China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    5. Cincinelli, Peter & Pellini, Elisabetta & Urga, Giovanni, 2022. "Systemic risk in the Chinese financial system: A panel Granger causality analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Bats, Joost V. & Houben, Aerdt C.F.J., 2020. "Bank-based versus market-based financing: Implications for systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    8. Atasoy, Burak Sencer & Özkan, İbrahim & Erden, Lütfi, 2024. "The determinants of systemic risk contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    9. Daniel Covitz & Nellie Liang & Tobias Adrian, 2015. "Financial Stability Monitoring," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 357-395, December.
    10. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Dynamic Leverage Asset Pricing," Staff Reports 625, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Douglas da Rosa München & Herbert Kimura, 2020. "Regulatory Banking Leverage: what do you know?," Working Papers Series 540, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Justine Pedrono & Aurélien Violon, 2016. "Banks' Leverage Procyclicality: Does US Dollar Diversification Really Matter?," Working Papers halshs-01216658, HAL.
    13. Varotto, Simone & Zhao, Lei, 2018. "Systemic risk and bank size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 45-70.
    14. A. Baglioni & E. Beccalli & A. Boitani & A. Monticini, 2013. "Is the leverage of European banks procyclical?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1251-1266, December.
    15. He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
    16. Aymanns, Christoph & Caccioli, Fabio & Farmer, J. Doyne & Tan, Vincent W.C., 2016. "Taming the Basel leverage cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 263-277.
    17. Baltzer, Markus & Koehl, Alexandra & Reitz, Stefan, 2020. "Procyclical leverage in Europe and its role in asset pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    18. Justine Pedrono, 2015. "Banking Leverage with Currency Diversification," AMSE Working Papers 1539, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Sep 2015.
    19. Justine Pedrono & Aurélien Violon, 2015. "Bank Leverage: Does Currency Diversification Really Matter?," AMSE Working Papers 1543, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised 16 Oct 2015.
    20. Jason Allen & Andrew Usher, 2020. "Investment dealer collateral and leverage procyclicality," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 489-505, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Leverage; Systemic risk; Threshold model; Panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:94:y:2024:i:c:s1057521924002552. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.