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Cross-asset return predictability: Carry trades, stocks and commodities

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  • Lu, Helen
  • Jacobsen, Ben

Abstract

Equity returns predict carry trade profits from shorting low interest rate currencies. Commodity price changes predict profits from longing high interest rate currencies. The gradual information diffusion hypothesis (Hong & Stein, 1999) provides a ready explanation for these predictability results. These results cannot be explained by time-varying risk premia as stock returns and commodity price changes significantly predict negative carry trade profits. The predictability is one-directional, from commodities to high interest rate currencies, from commodities to stocks and from stocks to low interest rate currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu, Helen & Jacobsen, Ben, 2016. "Cross-asset return predictability: Carry trades, stocks and commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 62-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:64:y:2016:i:c:p:62-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.02.013
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    Cited by:

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    3. Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2020. "Dynamic correlation pattern amongst alternative energy market for diversification opportunities," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, December.
    4. Xiao, Jihong & Wang, Yudong & Wen, Danyan, 2023. "The predictive effect of risk aversion on oil returns under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Chang‐Che Wu & MeiChi Huang & Chih‐Chiang Wu, 2021. "The role of asymmetry and dynamics in carry trade and general financial markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 331-353, May.
    6. Xiao, Jihong & Hu, Chunyan & Ouyang, Guangda & Wen, Fenghua, 2019. "Impacts of oil implied volatility shocks on stock implied volatility in China: Empirical evidence from a quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 297-309.
    7. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    8. Dawar, Ishaan & Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq, 2021. "Crude oil prices and clean energy stock indices: Lagged and asymmetric effects with quantile regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 288-299.
    9. Awijen, Haithem & Ben Zaied, Younes & Ben Lahouel, Béchir & Khlifi, Foued, 2023. "Machine learning for US cross-industry return predictability under information uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Djeutem, Edouard & Dunbar, Geoffrey R., 2022. "Uncovered return parity: Equity returns and currency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    11. Hasselgren, Anton & Peltomäki, Jarkko & Graham, Michael, 2020. "Speculator activity and the cross-asset predictability of FX returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    12. Zaremba, Adam, 2019. "Cross-sectional seasonalities in international government bond returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 80-94.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carry trade; Gradual information diffusion; Return predictability; Safe-haven currencies; Time-varying risk premium; Vector auto regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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