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Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle

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Cited by:

  1. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Menkhoff, Manuel & Müller, Gernot & Niemann, Knut, 2022. "Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro," CEPR Discussion Papers 17768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Longo, Luigi & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2022. "A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  3. Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2023. "Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: The role of financial markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1569-1593, November.
  4. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819, September.
  5. Xie, Pinjie & Shu, Yalin & Sun, Feihu & Pan, Xianyou, 2024. "Enhancing the accuracy of China's electricity consumption forecasting through economic cycle division: An MSAR-OPLS scenario analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
  6. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2018. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft: Luftloch im konjunkturellen Höhenflug [German Economy Summer 2018 - German economy: Temporary slowdown, boom not over yet]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 44, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  7. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmueller, 2020. "Business cycle dating and forecasting with real-time Swiss GDP data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 73-105, January.
  8. Jannsen, Nils, 2018. "Prognosen des IfW und tatsächliche Entwicklung 2017," Kiel Insight 2018.2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  9. Robert Lehmann & Magnus Reif, 2021. "Predicting the German Economy: Headline Survey Indices Under Test," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 215-232, November.
  10. Kai Carstensen & Magnus Reif & Maik Wolters, 2019. "Rezessionsrisiko der deutschen Wirtschaft deutlich erhöht," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(05), pages 28-31, March.
  11. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
  12. van Os, Bram & van Dijk, Dick, 2024. "Accelerating peak dating in a dynamic factor Markov-switching model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 313-323.
  13. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2017. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2017 - Deutsche Wirtschaft nähert sich der Hochkonjunktur [German Economy Autumn 2017 - German economy approaches boom period]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 35, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  14. Grimme, Christian & Lehmann, Robert & Noeller, Marvin, 2021. "Forecasting imports with information from abroad," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 109-117.
  15. Klarl, Torben, 2020. "The response of CO2 emissions to the business cycle: New evidence for the U.S," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  16. Christian Grimme & Robert Lehmann & Marvin Nöller, 2018. "Das ifo Importklima – ein erster Frühindikator für die Prognose der deutschen Importe," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(12), pages 27-32, June.
  17. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  18. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
  19. Agnieszka Gehringer & Thomas Mayer, 2021. "Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 71-89, April.
  20. Gehrke, Britta & Weber, Enzo, 2018. "Identifying asymmetric effects of labor market reforms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 18-40.
  21. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP with a large factor model space," Discussion Papers 41/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  22. Proaño, Christian R. & Tarassow, Artur, 2018. "Evaluating the predicting power of ordered probit models for multiple business cycle phases in the U.S. and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 60-71.
  23. Magnus Reif, 2022. "Time‐Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 80-102, February.
  24. Kai Carstensen & Felix Kießner & Thies Rossian, 2023. "Estimation of the TFP Gap for the Largest Five EMU Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 10245, CESifo.
  25. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2021. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Working Papers 21-05, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
  26. Zhang, Wei & He, Jie & Ge, Chanyuan & Xue, Rui, 2022. "Real-time macroeconomic monitoring using mixed frequency data: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  27. Yanlin Shi, 2023. "Long memory and regime switching in the stochastic volatility modelling," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 320(2), pages 999-1020, January.
  28. Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Wolters, Maik H., 2018. "Schwacher Jahresauftakt 2018: Delle oder Beginn eines Abschwungs?," Kiel Insight 2018.10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  29. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina, 2018. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft näher am Limit [German Economy Spring 2018 - German economy closer to its limit]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 41, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  30. Sarfraz Hussain & Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Perengki Susanto & Waqas Ahmad Watto & Samina Haque & Pradeep Mishra, 2022. "The Quality of Fair Revaluation of Fixed Assets and Additional Calculations Aimed at Facilitating Prospective Investors’ Decisions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-14, August.
  31. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
  32. Carstensen, Kai & Wolters, Maik H., 2017. "Normaler Abschwung oder schwere Rezession? Ein neues Modell für die Prognose der Konjunkturphasen in Deutschland," Kiel Insight 2017.14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  33. Degras, David & Ting, Chee-Ming & Ombao, Hernando, 2022. "Markov-switching state-space models with applications to neuroimaging," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
  34. Ademmer, Martin & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Deutsche Wirtschaft in der Rezession?," Kiel Insight 2019.10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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