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Schwacher Jahresauftakt 2018: Delle oder Beginn eines Abschwungs?

Author

Listed:
  • Hauber, Philipp
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Wolters, Maik H.

Abstract

Die Konjunktur hat sich seit dem Jahreswechsel abgekühlt. Die Zuversicht der Unternehmen ist in den vergangenen Monat ausweislich Umfragen des ifo Instituts spürbar zurückgegangen. Auch die Auftragseingänge sind seit Jahresbeginn deutlich gesunken. Die langsamere konjunkturelle Gangart zeigte sich in der Zuwachsrate des Bruttoinlandsprodukts im ersten Quartal, die mit 0,3 Prozent deutlich niedriger ausfiel als es die Frühindikatoren noch vor einigen Monaten angezeigt hatten. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt sich die Frage, ob es sich dabei nur um eine kurze Schwächephase oder bereits den Beginn eines Abschwungs handelt.

Suggested Citation

  • Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Wolters, Maik H., 2018. "Schwacher Jahresauftakt 2018: Delle oder Beginn eines Abschwungs?," Kiel Insight 2018.10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:201810
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    2. Hauber, Philipp, 2018. "Zur Kurzfristprognose mit Faktormodellen und Prognoseanpassungen," Kiel Insight 2018.5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Heinrich, Markus & Carstensen, Kai & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik, 2017. "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168206, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Carstensen, Kai & Wolters, Maik H., 2017. "Normaler Abschwung oder schwere Rezession? Ein neues Modell für die Prognose der Konjunkturphasen in Deutschland," Kiel Insight 2017.14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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