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Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries

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  1. Sanusi Yakubu Muhammad & Isah Auwal & Bello Abdulmajeed Kumo & Yusuf Fadimah, 2023. "Oil Price and Stock Market Nexus in Nigeria: An Asymmetric Cointegration Based on Non-Linear Ardl Approach," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(11), pages 573-591, November.
  2. Daniel Francois Meyer, 2018. "The Impact of Changes in Fuel Prices on Inflation and Economic Growth in South Africa," Proceedings of the 11th International RAIS Conference, November 19-20, 2018 010DM, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
  3. Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Shi, Shuping & Tan, David, 2022. "Gold as a financial instrument," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
  4. Fazal, Rizwan & Rehman, Syed Aziz Ur & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2022. "Graph theoretic approach to expose the energy-induced crisis in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
  5. George Filis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2014. "Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 709-729, May.
  6. Patricia Renou-Maissant, 2019. "Is Oil Price Still Driving Inflation?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(6), pages 199-220, November.
  7. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis H., 2018. "Extreme dependence and risk spillovers between oil and Islamic stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 42-63.
  8. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Deb, Pragyan & Furceri, Davide & Jiménez, Daniel & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2023. "Shipping costs and inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  9. Tural Karimli & Nigar Jafarova & Heyran Aliyeva & Salman Huseynov, 2016. "Oil Price Pass-Through into Inflation: The Evidence from Oil Exporting Countries," IHEID Working Papers 01-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  10. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  11. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Samia Nasreen & Subhan Ullah & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2021. "Analysing spillover between returns and volatility series of oil across major stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2458-2490, April.
  12. François Lescaroux & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "Measuring The Effects Of Oil Prices On China'S Economy: A Factor‐Augmented Vector Autoregressive Approach," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 410-425, August.
  13. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
  14. Saba Saleem & Khalil Ahmad, 2015. "Crude Oil Price and Inflation in Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 4(1), pages 10-18, March.
  15. Reicher, Christopher Phillip & Utlaut, Johannes Friederich, 2010. "The relationship between oil prices and long-term interest rates," Kiel Working Papers 1637, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  16. Moses Tule & Afees Salisu & Charles Chiemeke, 2020. "Improving Nigeria’s Inflation Forecast with Oil Price: The Role of Estimators," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(1), pages 191-229, March.
  17. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.
  18. Nasser Al-Mawali & Haslifah Mohamad Hasim & Khalil Al-Busaidi, 2016. "Modeling the Impact of the Oil Sector on the Economy of Sultanate of Oman," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 120-127.
  19. Adam, P. & Rianse, U. & Harafah, Ĺ. M. & Cahyono, E. & Rafiy, M., 2016. "A Model of the Dynamics of the Effect of World Crude Oil Price and World Rice Price on Indonesia’s Inflation Rate," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, March.
  20. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Paulo Jose Regis, 2008. "Nonlinearities and the order of integration of oil prices," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2008/15, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
  21. Aziza Syzdykova & Aktolkin Abubakirova & Lyazzat Kudabayeva & Ardak Zhantayeva & Aizhan Omarova, 2022. "Asymmetric Causality Relationship between Oil Prices and Inflation in BRIC Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 184-191, May.
  22. Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Farag, Markos & Akintande, Olalekan J. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Olubusoye, Olusanya E., 2024. "Re-validating the Phillips Curve hypothesis in Africa and the role of oil prices: A mixed-frequency approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
  23. Nguyen, Xuan & Nguyen, Cuong, 2016. "The Impact of Petroleum Retail Price Shocks on Inflation in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 93136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Kwabena Krah & Daniel R Petrolia & Angelica Williams & Keith H Coble & Ardian Harri & Roderick M Rejesus, 2018. "Producer Preferences for Contracts on a Risky Bioenergy Crop," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 240-258.
  25. Timo Henckel & Gordon D. Menzies & Peter Moffat & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2019. "Three Dimensions of Central Bank Credibility and Inferential Expectations: The Euro Zone," Working Paper Series 56, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  26. Suliman Zakaria S. Abdalla, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Sudanese Stock Market Performance," Working Papers 887, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
  27. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 166-179.
  28. Xuan, Poh Paik & Chin, Lee, 2015. "Pass-through Effect of Oil Price into Consumer Price: An Empirical Study," MPRA Paper 96865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  29. Yudong Wang & Li Liu, 2016. "Crude oil and world stock markets: volatility spillovers, dynamic correlations, and hedging," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1481-1509, June.
  30. Mija, Simion & Slobozian, Dorin & Cuhal, Radu & Stratan, Alexandru, 2013. "How Core Inflation Reacts to the Second Round Effects," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 98-118, March.
  31. Tweneboah, George & Adam, Anokye M., 2008. "Implications of Oil Price Shocks for Monetary Policy in Ghana: A Vector Error Correction Model," MPRA Paper 11968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Ateeque Anwer, 2024. "How Oil Price Shocks Influence on Inflation Rate? Evidence from Malaysian Economy," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(2), pages 350-356.
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  34. Mustafa Kocoglu, 2023. "Drivers of inflation in Turkey: a new Keynesian Phillips curve perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2825-2853, August.
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  36. Umar Bala & Lee Chin, 2018. "Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price on Inflation: An Empirical Study of African OPEC Member Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, November.
  37. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
  38. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Energy prices and exchange rates of the U.S. dollar: Further evidence from linear and nonlinear causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2289-2297.
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  40. Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
  41. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
  42. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2021. "Oil price pass-through into consumer prices: Evidence from U.S. weekly data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  43. Dedeoğlu, Dinçer & Kaya, Hüseyin, 2014. "Pass-through of oil prices to domestic prices: Evidence from an oil-hungry but oil-poor emerging market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 67-74.
  44. Bräuninger, Michael & Matthies, Klaus & Weinert, Günter & Koller, Cornelia & Pflüger, Wolfgang & Roestel, Axel-Adrian, 2005. "Energierohstoffe. Teil I: Szenarien für die langfristige Entwicklung auf den Märkten für Energierohstoffe. Teil II: Strategieansätze unterschiedlicher Energiepreisszenarien aus der Sicht von Politik, ," Strategy 2030 - Wealth and Life in the Next Generation 1, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) and Berenberg.
  45. Nguyen, Thanh Pham Thien & Nghiem, Son & Tripe, David, 2021. "Does oil price aggravate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on bank performance in India?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  46. Andrzej Geise & Mariola Pilatowska, 2013. "Synchronization of Crude Oil Prices Cycle and Business Cycle for the Central Eastern European Economies," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 13, pages 175-194.
  47. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2017. "Revisiting the oil price and stock market nexus: A nonlinear Panel ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 258-271.
  48. Sek, Siok Kun, 2017. "Impact of oil price changes on domestic price inflation at disaggregated levels: Evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 204-217.
  49. Álvarez, Luis J. & Hurtado, Samuel & Sánchez, Isabel & Thomas, Carlos, 2011. "The impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 422-431, January.
  50. repec:bla:opecrv:v:32:y:2008:i:4:p:343-380 is not listed on IDEAS
  51. Zakaria, Muhammad & Khiam, Shahzeb & Mahmood, Hamid, 2021. "Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  52. Antonio J., Garzón & Luis A., Hierro, 2022. "Inflation, oil prices and exchange rates. The Euro’s dampening effect," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 130-146.
  53. Liew, Freddy, 2012. "Forecasting inflation in Asian economies," MPRA Paper 36781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  54. Nor Ermawati Hussain & Mohd Shahidan Shaari & Diana Nabila Chau Abdullah, 2018. "Effects of Retailing Selling Prices of Petrol and Diesel on Food Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 28-32.
  55. Aharon, David Y. & Azman Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf & Kallir, Ido, 2023. "Oil price shocks and inflation: A cross-national examination in the ASEAN5+3 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  56. Hmood Humaidi Banikhalid, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the G7¡¯s Inflation Rate: An Econometric Study for the Period (1986-2016)," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(6), pages 167-173, June.
  57. Pablo Pincheira B & Álvaro García M, 2007. "Oil Shocks and Inflation The Case Of Chile and a Sample of Industrial Countries," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(1), pages 5-36, April.
  58. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Mishra, Saurabh & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-96.
  59. Binder, Carola Conces, 2018. "Inflation expectations and the price at the pump," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
  60. Nasim, Asma & Downing, Gareth, 2023. "Energy shocks and bank performance in the advanced economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
  61. Lim, Zhen-Wen & Goh, Kim-Leng, 2019. "Natural gas industry transformation in Peninsular Malaysia: The journey towards a liberalised market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 197-211.
  62. Sarwar, Muhammad Nadeem & Hussain, Hamid & Maqbool, Muhammad Bilal, 2020. "Pass through effects of oil price on food and non-food prices in Pakistan: A nonlinear ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  63. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Oil price pass-through into inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 126-133, January.
  64. Avgeris Nikolaos & Katrakilidis Constantinos, 2013. "A Dynamic Panel, Empirical Investigation on the Link between Inflation and Fiscal Imbalances. Does Heterogeneity Matter?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(2), pages 147-162.
  65. Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath & Joseph Macri & Kambiz Raffiee, 2017. "Crude Oil Price Volatility Spillovers and Agricultural Commodities: A Study in Time and Frequency Domains," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 9, pages 42-56, August.
  66. Chuxiong Deng & Zhujun Jiang & Chuanwang Sun, 2018. "Estimating the Efficiency and Impacts of Petroleum Product Pricing Reforms in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, April.
  67. Grzegorz Przekota, 2022. "Do High Fuel Prices Pose an Obstacle to Economic Growth? A Study for Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-15, September.
  68. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2014. "The relationship between oil prices and the Nigerian stock market. An analysis based on fractional integration and cointegration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 328-333.
  69. Carlos J. García T. & Patricio Jaramillo G. & Jorge Selaive C., 2007. "Stylized Facts of the International Business Cycle Relevant for the Chilean Economy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(1), pages 71-89, April.
  70. Uğur Akkoç & Anıl Akçağlayan & Gamze Kargın Akkoç, 2021. "The impacts of oil price shocks in Turkey: sectoral evidence from the FAVAR approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1147-1171, November.
  71. Guo, Jin & Zheng, Xinye & Chen, Zhan-Ming, 2016. "How does coal price drive up inflation? Reexamining the relationship between coal price and general price level in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 265-276.
  72. Michael Pedersen, 2015. "Propagation of Shocks to Food and Energy Prices: A Cross-Country Analysis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(4), pages 272-289, August.
  73. Florian Verheyen, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US," Ruhr Economic Papers 0216, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  74. Yeliz Yalcin & Cengiz Arikan & Furkan Emirmahmutoglu, 2015. "Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 737-746, November.
  75. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2015. "Oil price shocks and domestic inflation in Thailand," MPRA Paper 62797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  76. Youshu Li & Junjie Guo, 2022. "The asymmetric impacts of oil price and shocks on inflation in BRICS: a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(12), pages 1377-1395, March.
  77. Hamid Davari & Alireza Kamalian, 2018. "Oil Price and Inflation in Iran: Non-Linear ARDL Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 295-300.
  78. Akoum, Ibrahim & Graham, Michael & Kivihaho, Jarno & Nikkinen, Jussi & Omran, Mohammed, 2012. "Co-movement of oil and stock prices in the GCC region: A wavelet analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 385-394.
  79. Baneng Naape & Ndzalama C. Mathebula, 2022. "How do petrol prices respond to variations in crude oil and the exchange rate? Evidence from South Africa," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 23(3), pages 23-42, October.
  80. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kim, Won Joong, 2023. "How macroeconomic factors drive the linkages between inflation and oil markets in global economies? A multiscale analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 212-232.
  81. Sukati, Mphumuzi, 2013. "Cointegration Analysis of Oil Prices and Consumer Price Index in South Africa using STATA Software," MPRA Paper 49797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  82. Nusair, Salah A., 2019. "Oil price and inflation dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 997-1011.
  83. Henckel, Timo & Menzies, Gordon D. & Moffatt, Peter & Zizzo, Daniel J., 2019. "Three dimensions of central bank credibility and inferential expectations: The Euro zone," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 294-308.
  84. Deluna, Roperto S. & Loanzon, Jeanette Isabelle V. & Tatlonghari, Virgilio M., 2021. "A nonlinear ARDL model of inflation dynamics in the Philippine economy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
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  86. Ashfaq, Saleha & Tang, Yong & Maqbool, Rashid, 2019. "Volatility spillover impact of world oil prices on leading Asian energy exporting and importing economies’ stock returns," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
  87. Ewing, Bradley T. & Thompson, Mark A., 2007. "Dynamic cyclical comovements of oil prices with industrial production, consumer prices, unemployment, and stock prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5535-5540, November.
  88. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  89. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock price returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," MPRA Paper 80495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  90. Huang, Xuan & Liu, Xueyong, 2022. "The time-frequency evolution of multidimensional relations between global oil prices and China's general price level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
  91. Nicholas Apergis & Alper Aslan & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on Growth across US States," Working Papers 201459, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  92. Guillaume L`oeillet & Julien Licheron, 2009. "The role of oil prices in monetary policy rules: evidence from 4 major central banks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2361-2371.
  93. Philipp F. M. Baumann & Enzo Rossi & Alexander Volkmann, 2020. "What Drives Inflation and How: Evidence from Additive Mixed Models Selected by cAIC," Papers 2006.06274, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
  94. Zaighum, Isma & Aman, Ameenullah & Sharif, Arshian & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2021. "Do energy prices interact with global Islamic stocks? Fresh insights from quantile ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
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