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The Impact of Petroleum Retail Price Shocks on Inflation in Vietnam

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  • Nguyen, Xuan
  • Nguyen, Cuong

Abstract

This paper attempts to measure the impact of petroleum price changes on inflation in Vietnam over the period 2004-2013. It uses Autoregressive Distributed Lags model to estimate the relationship between petroleum prices and Consumer Price Index of different commodity groups. Petroleum price is affected by the world prices, and it is exogenous to a small economy as Vietnam. The analysis result shows that when the price changes, it affects significantly to the fluctuations of CPI immediately and on several next months. In all kinds of CPI, the total CPI, food CPI, construction CPI and transportation CPI suffer the impact the most. Using results of Autoregressive Distributed Lags models for the short-run effects, we compute the long-run effects between Petroleum prices and CPIs. The result reveals that there are some long-run relationships between the petroleum price change and several CPI kinds, in which the largest impacts in long-run are of the food CPI and transportation CPI.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, Xuan & Nguyen, Cuong, 2016. "The Impact of Petroleum Retail Price Shocks on Inflation in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 93136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:93136
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Le Viet Trung & Nguyen Thi Thuy Vinh, 2011. "The impact of oil prices, real effective exchange rate and inflation on economic activity: Novel evidence for Vietnam," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-09, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; CPI; impact of petroleum price changes; impact of oil price changes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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