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Cointegration Analysis of Oil Prices and Consumer Price Index in South Africa using STATA Software

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  • Sukati, Mphumuzi

Abstract

This paper investigates the concept of vector autoregression (VAR) and cointegration using a bivariate model of global oil prices and headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) in South Africa. The study aims to determine how much of inflation is driven by oil prices. Particular attention is paid to the theoretical underpinnings of cointergration analysis and the application of STATA software to undertake such analysis and perform test statistics. Contrary to the popular myth that a rise in global oil prices fuels inflation, this study has observed that global oil prices are not the drivers of inflation in South Africa. In this way, other macroeconomic indicators and policy developments need to be integrated in analyzing the determinants of South African inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sukati, Mphumuzi, 2013. "Cointegration Analysis of Oil Prices and Consumer Price Index in South Africa using STATA Software," MPRA Paper 49797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49797
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/49797/1/MPRA_paper_49797.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mndzebele, Mancoba Knowledge, 2021. "The key determinants of food inflation in the Kingdom of Eswatini," Research Theses 334768, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    2. Khwazi Magubane, 2024. "Financial cycles synchronisation in South Africa. A dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) Approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 2321069-232, December.
    3. Allan, R. & Daud, A. & Rosli, A., 2024. "Cointegration Analysis of the World's Black Pepper Export Market Among Major Producers," ASEAN University for Sustainable Food System, Faculty of Economics, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, Thailand, April 18-19, 2024 344439, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
    4. P. K. Mishra & S. K. Mishra, 2022. "Is the Impact of COVID-19 Significant in Determining Equity Market Integration? Insights from BRICS Economies," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(2), pages 137-162, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer Price Index; Oil Prices; Vector Autoregression; Cointegration; STATA Software; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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