IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/smo/jpaper/010dm.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Changes in Fuel Prices on Inflation and Economic Growth in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Francois Meyer

    (North-West University, Vanderbijlpark)

Abstract

: From a cost-push inflation point of view, the fuel energy sector plays a significant role in price stability and production costs. This sector has been volatile over the last decade, impacting on global economic stability. In South Africa, which is a fuel importer, fuel prices have been rising at an alarming rate of 21 percent since the beginning of 2018, causing inflation pressure within a low growth environment. The objective of this study was to analyse the impact of changes in fuel prices on inflation and economic growth in South Africa as a proxy for fuel importing developing countries. This study followed a quantitative research approach with time series data from 2001 to 2018. The impact of changes in the fuel price on inflation and economic growth were analysed by means of the Johansen cointegration and Granger causality econometric models. The results indicated both long and short-run relationships between the variables. The Granger causality tests indicated that causality is from changes in fuel prices to economic output and inflation. The results of the study could be used in monetary and fiscal policy, although not much control regarding the changes of the fuel price exists except for reduction in levies as a direct method of taxation.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Francois Meyer, 2018. "The Impact of Changes in Fuel Prices on Inflation and Economic Growth in South Africa," Proceedings of the 11th International RAIS Conference, November 19-20, 2018 010DM, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:smo:jpaper:010dm
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://rais.education/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/010DM.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    2. Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Montañés, Antonio & Gadea, M. Dolores, 2011. "The impact of oil shocks on the Spanish economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1070-1081.
    3. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
    4. Tang, Weiqi & Wu, Libo & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2010. "Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 3-14, September.
    5. Werner Roeger, 2005. "International oil price changes: impact of oil prices on growth and inflation in the EU/OECD," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 15-32, June.
    6. Alan A. Carruth & Mark A. Hooker & Andrew J. Oswald, 1998. "Unemployment Equilibria And Input Prices: Theory And Evidence From The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 621-628, November.
    7. Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Sertoglu, Kamil & Candemir, Mehmet & Mercan, Mehmet, 2015. "Oil price movements and macroeconomic performance: Evidence from twenty-six OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 257-270.
    8. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    9. LeBlanc, Michael & Chinn, Menzie David, 2004. "Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4wt4m7hg, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    10. Richard A. Ashley & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "International Evidence On The Oil Price-Real Output Relationship: Does Persistence Matter?," Working Papers e07-42, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    12. François Lescaroux & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "On the Influence of Oil Prices on Economic Activity and Other Macroeconomic and Financial Variables," Working Papers 2008-05, CEPII research center.
    13. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    14. Peersman, Gert & Van Robays, Ine, 2012. "Cross-country differences in the effects of oil shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1532-1547.
    15. Jan Kakes, 2000. "Monetary Transmission in Europe," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1947.
    16. Hooker, Mark A, 2002. "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 540-561, May.
    17. Korhonen, Iikka & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2010. "Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 848-856, July.
    18. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Hwang, M.J. & Peng, Hsiao-Ping, 2005. "The asymmetry of the impact of oil price shocks on economic activities: An application of the multivariate threshold model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 455-476, May.
    19. Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-532, September.
    20. Cunado, Juncal & Jo, Soojin & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2015. "Macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks in Asian economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 867-879.
    21. Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
    22. Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valerie, 2006. "The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries: An empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3910-3915, December.
    23. Álvarez, Luis J. & Hurtado, Samuel & Sánchez, Isabel & Thomas, Carlos, 2011. "The impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 422-431.
    24. Flavien Fokou Noumbissie, 2014. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Financial Market in South Africa: A VAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(8), pages 636-646.
    25. Cavalcanti, Tiago & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in Brazil and in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 475-486.
    26. Nielsen, Bent, 2010. "Analysis Of Coexplosive Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 882-915, June.
    27. Chang, Youngho & Wong, Joon Fong, 2003. "Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 1151-1165, September.
    28. Du, Limin & Yanan, He & Wei, Chu, 2010. "The relationship between oil price shocks and China's macro-economy: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4142-4151, August.
    29. repec:bla:opecrv:v:32:y:2008:i:4:p:343-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Nielsen, Bent, 2010. "Analysis Of Coexplosive Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 882-915, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hong Thai Le & Marta Disegna, 2018. "Responses of macroeconomy and stock markets to structural oil price shocks: New evidence from Asian oil refinery," BAFES Working Papers BAFES25, Department of Accounting, Finance & Economic, Bournemouth University.
    2. George Filis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2014. "Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 709-729, May.
    3. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
    4. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Alom, Fardous, 2011. "Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks in Asia and Pacific Countries: An Application of SVAR Model," 2011 Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand 115346, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    6. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    7. Raza, Syed Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Amir-ud-Din, Rafi & Sbia, Rashid & Shah, Nida, 2018. "Testing for wavelet based time-frequency relationship between oil prices and US economic activity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 571-580.
    8. Zakaria, Muhammad & Khiam, Shahzeb & Mahmood, Hamid, 2021. "Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    9. Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Sertoglu, Kamil & Candemir, Mehmet & Mercan, Mehmet, 2015. "Oil price movements and macroeconomic performance: Evidence from twenty-six OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 257-270.
    10. Li, Qiming & Cheng, Ke & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2017. "Response pattern of stock returns to international oil price shocks: From the perspective of China’s oil industrial chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1821-1831.
    11. Simeon Oludiran Akinleye & Stephen Ekpo, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(4, Cierre), pages 565-624.
    12. Christopher N. Ekong & Ekpeno L. Effiong, 2015. "Oil Price Shocks and Nigeria’s Macroeconomy: Disentangling the Dynamics of Crude Oil Market Shocks," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(6), pages 920-935, December.
    13. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Muhammad Iftikhar Ul Husnain & Qaisar Abbas & Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on Asian economies: a nonlinear analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1319-1350, October.
    14. Akoum, Ibrahim & Graham, Michael & Kivihaho, Jarno & Nikkinen, Jussi & Omran, Mohammed, 2012. "Co-movement of oil and stock prices in the GCC region: A wavelet analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 385-394.
    15. KILICARSLAN Zerrin & DUMRUL Yasemin, 2017. "Macroeconomic Impacts Of Oil Price Shocks: An Empirical Analysis Based On The Svar Models," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 69(5), pages 55-72, December.
    16. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
    17. Heidari, Hassan & Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar & Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz, 2015. "How Do Different Oil Price Shocks Affect the Relationship Between Oil and Stock Markets?," MPRA Paper 80273, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2016.
    18. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1504, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    19. Angelidis, Timotheos & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2015. "US stock market regimes and oil price shocks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 132-146.
    20. Ebru Caglayan Akay & Sinem Guler Kangalli Uyar, 2016. "Determining the Functional Form of Relationships between Oil Prices and Macroeconomic Variables: The Case of Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 880-891.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; fuel prices; inflation; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:smo:jpaper:010dm. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Eduard David (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://rais.education/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.