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Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe

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Cited by:

  1. Lux, Thomas, 2009. "Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 638-655, November.
  2. Aneta Maria Kłopocka, 2017. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 693-717, September.
  3. Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2020. "Does business confidence matter for investment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1633-1665, October.
  4. Lachezar Borisov, 2022. "Consumer Confidence And Real Economic Growth In The Eurozone," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 8(3).
  5. Raffaele Mattera & Michelangelo Misuraca & Maria Spano & Germana Scepi, 2023. "Mixed frequency composite indicators for measuring public sentiment in the EU," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2357-2382, June.
  6. Kiryoung LEE & Chanik JO, 2018. "Forecasting Chinese Business Cycle Using Long-term Interest Rate Comovements," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 118-134, December.
  7. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah & Nieves Carmona-González & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2024. "Consumer sentiments across G7 and BRICS economies: Are they related?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(2), pages 323-344, June.
  8. Wang, Hao & Xu, Ning & Yin, Haiyan & Ji, Hao, 2022. "The dynamic impact of monetary policy on financial stability in China after crises," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  9. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Eduardo Schirmer Finn, 2022. "Can credibility offset electricity price effect on business confidence? An empirical investigation from a large emerging economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(11), pages 1229-1242, March.
  10. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Oliveira, Diego S.P., 2019. "Firms' confidence and Okun's law in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 98-107.
  11. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2017. "Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: follow-up, multipliers and confidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "On the stability of endogenous growth models: an evaluation of the agents’ response to output fluctuations," MPRA Paper 2891, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Konstantinou, Panagiotis & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Boosting confidence: Is there a role for fiscal policy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1629-1641, July.
  14. Georgeta VINTILA & Ioana Laura TIBULCA, 2014. "Can the Corporate Tax Burden be used to predict the Evolution of Business Confidence?," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(1), pages 143-150, January.
  15. Gabe de Bondt, 2017. "Confidence and monetary policy transmission," EcoMod2017 10197, EcoMod.
  16. Sarah Brown & Mark N. Harris & Christopher Spencer & Karl Taylor, 2024. "Financial Expectations and Household Consumption: Does Middle‐Inflation Matter?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 741-768, June.
  17. Kevin Moran & Simplice Aime Nono, 2016. "Using Confidence Data to Forecast the Canadian Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche 1606, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
  18. Marina Matosec & Zdenka Obuljen Zoricic, 2019. "Identifying the Interdependence between Consumer Confidence and Macroeconomic Developments in Croatia," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 17(2-B), pages 345-354.
  19. Liudmila Kitrar & Tamara Lipkind, 2021. "Development Of Composite Indicators Of Cyclical Response In Business Surveys Considering The Specifics Of The ‘Covid-19 Economy’," HSE Working papers WP BRP 121/STI/2021, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  20. Michael Lainé, 2018. "The Confidence Paradox: Can Confidence Account for Business Cycles?," Post-Print hal-04265052, HAL.
  21. Chew Lian Chua & Sarantis Tsiaplias & Ruining Zhou, 2024. "Constructing a high‐frequency World Economic Gauge using a mixed‐frequency dynamic factor model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2212-2227, September.
  22. Andrzej Cieslik & Mahdi Ghodsi, 2021. "Economic sentiment indicators and foreign direct investment: Empirical evidence from European Union countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 168, pages 56-75.
  23. Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta, 2023. "The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 429-453, February.
  24. Girardi, Alessandro, 2014. "Expectations and macroeconomic fluctuations in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 315-318.
  25. Marcin Olkiewicz, 2022. "The Impact of Economic Indicators on the Evolution of Business Confidence during the COVID-19 Pandemic Period," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, April.
  26. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 20(1), pages 53-85, June.
  27. Gene Ambrocio, 2022. "Euro-area business confidence and COVID-19," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(43), pages 4915-4929, September.
  28. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey," Kiel Working Papers 1424, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  29. Shyam Gouri Suresh & Mark Setterfield, "undated". "Firm performance, macroeconomic conditions, and “animal spirits” in a Post Keynesian model of aggregate fluctuations," Working Papers 14-09, Davidson College, Department of Economics.
  30. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_004 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
  32. Aneta M. Klopocka & Rumiana Gorska, 2021. "Forecasting Household Saving Rate with Consumer Confidence Indicator and its Components: Panel Data Analysis of 14 European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 874-898.
  33. Erik Kole & Liesbeth Noordegraaf-Eelens & Bas Vringer, 2019. "Cognitive Biases and Consumer Sentiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-031/I, Tinbergen Institute, revised 21 Mar 2023.
  34. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Drakos, Konstantinos & Kapopoulos, Panayotis, 2022. "Predicting international tourist arrivals in Greece with a novel sector-specific business leading indicator," MPRA Paper 113860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Anja Sebbesen & Harald Oberhofer, 2018. "The Propagation of Business Sentiment within the European Union?," WIFO Working Papers 549, WIFO.
  36. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Karl Taylor, 2012. "Inflation Convergence in Central and Eastern Europe with a View to Adopting the Euro," Working Papers 2012005, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
  37. Ramalho, Esmeralda A. & Caleiro, António & Dionfsio, Andreia, 2011. "Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 25-32, February.
  38. Thomas Lux & Jaba Ghonghadze, 2011. "Modeling the Dynamics of EU Economic Sentiment Indicators: An Interaction-Based Approach," Post-Print hal-00711445, HAL.
  39. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2018. "Revenue- versus spending-based consolidation plans: the role of follow-up," Working Paper Series 2178, European Central Bank.
  40. Gabriel Caldas Montes & André Almeida, 2017. "Corruption and business confidence: a panel data analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2692-2702.
  41. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Canzian, Giulia, 2011. "The psychology of inflation, monetary policy and macroeconomic instability," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 660-670.
  42. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & Stavros Degiannakis & Bruno Eeckels & George Filis, 2016. "Forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(27), pages 2571-2585, June.
  43. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
  44. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Amit Kara, 2020. "The Impact of GDP Data Revisions on Identifying and Predicting UK Recessions," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-12, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
  45. GORMUS Sakir & GUNES, Sevcan, 2010. "Consumer Confidence, Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: The Case Of Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
  46. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Business Confidence and Business Tourism in Japan," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(01), pages 1-23, February.
  47. Taylor, Karl & Bhadury, Soumya & Binner, Jane & Mandal, Anandadeep, 2024. "Business Cycle Turning Points and Local Labour Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 17153, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  48. Thomas Lux, 2009. "Rational Forecasts or Social Opinion Dynamics? Identification of Interaction Effects in a Business Climate Survey," Post-Print hal-00720175, HAL.
  49. Antonello D Agostino & Caterina Mendicino & Caterina Mendicino, 2015. "Can consumer confidence provide independent information on consumption spending?," Working Papers 2, European Stability Mechanism.
  50. Guizzardi, Andrea & Stacchini, Annalisa, 2015. "Real-time forecasting regional tourism with business sentiment surveys," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 213-223.
  51. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Karl Taylor, 2016. "Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe vs. the Eurozone: Non-linearities and long memory," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(5), pages 519-538, November.
  52. Thomas Lux & Duc Thi Luu & Boyan Yanovski, 2020. "An analysis of systemic risk in worldwide economic sentiment indices," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 909-928, November.
  53. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Kallandranis, Christos & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2022. "Borrower discouragement prevalence for Eurozone SMEs: Investigating the impact of economic sentiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 161-171.
  54. Pablo Castellanos García & Indalecio Pérez Díaz del Río & Jose Manuel Sanchez-Santos, 2014. "The role of confidence in the evolution of the Spanish economy: empirical evidence from an ARDL model," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161, December.
  55. Sarah Gelper & Christophe Croux, 2010. "On the Construction of the European Economic Sentiment Indicator," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 47-62, February.
  56. Mark J. Holmes & Brian Silverstone, 2010. "Business confidence and cyclical turning points: a Markov-switching approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 229-233, February.
  57. Li, Cheng, 2011. "Consumer expectation and output growth: The case of China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 298-300.
  58. Willem Vanlaer & Samantha Bielen & Wim Marneffe, 2020. "Consumer Confidence and Household Saving Behaviors: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 677-721, January.
  59. Jonsson, Andreas & Lindén, Staffan, 2009. "The quest for the best consumer confidence indicator," MPRA Paper 25515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. Kevin Moran & Simplice Aimé Nono & Imad Rherrad, 2018. "Forecasting with Many Predictors: How Useful are National and International Confidence Data?," Cahiers de recherche 1814, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
  61. Orlando Gomes, 2010. "Consumer confidence, endogenous growth and endogenous cycles," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(4), pages 377-404, September.
  62. António Bento Caleiro, 2021. "Learning to Classify the Consumer Confidence Indicator (in Portugal)," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-12, September.
  63. Lee, Kiryoung & Jeon, Yoontae, 2020. "Measuring Chinese consumers’ perceived uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 51-70.
  64. André Filipe Guedes Almeida & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2020. "Effects of crime and violence on business confidence: evidence from Rio de Janeiro," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(7), pages 1669-1688, May.
  65. Gaston Giordana & Ingmar Schumacher, 2012. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Leverage in Monetary Financial Institutions: Comparing European countries and Luxembourg," BCL working papers 77, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  66. Carmen García & Joan Ramon Borrell & José Manuel Ordóñez-de-Haro & Juan Luis Jiménez, 2022. "Managers’ expectations, business cycles and cartels’ life cycle," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 451-484, June.
  67. Ghonghadze, Jaba & Lux, Thomas, 2009. "Modeling the dynamics of EU economic sentiment indicators: an interaction-based approach," Kiel Working Papers 1487, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  68. Nicoletta Pashourtidou & Andreas Tsiaklis, 2011. "An Analysis of Firms’ Expectations about Activity and Employment," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 5(1), pages 71-85, June.
  69. Uju Violet Alola & Darya Baeva & Andrew Adewale Alola, 2023. "Determining the (A)symmetric Role of Business–Consumer Confidence in Outward–Inward Tourism in Russia: A Competitiveness Perspective," International Journal of Global Business and Competitiveness, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 22-34, June.
  70. Wai-Yip Alex Ho & James Yetman, 2014. "Do economies stall?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(35), pages 4267-4275, December.
  71. Edvin Xhango, 2017. "Fiscal Burden And Business Opportunities," Sociology and Social Work Review, International Society for projects in Education and Research, vol. 1(2), pages 46-55, December.
  72. Frank H. Westerhoff, 2005. "Consumer Behavior And Fluctuations In Economic Activity," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02n03), pages 209-215.
  73. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "A Data-Driven Approach to Construct Survey-Based Indicators by Means of Evolutionary Algorithms," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 1-14, January.
  74. Luu, Duc Thi & Yanovski, Boyan & Lux, Thomas, 2018. "An analysis of systematic risk in worldwide econonomic sentiment indices," Economics Working Papers 2018-03, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  75. Helder Ferreira Mendonça & André Filipe Guedes Almeida, 2019. "Importance of credibility for business confidence: evidence from an emerging economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1979-1996, December.
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