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The propagation of business sentiment within the European Union

Author

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  • Anja Kukuvec

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Harald Oberhofer

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the propagation of business sentiment within the European Union (EU) and adds to the literature on shock absorption via a common market's real economy. To this end, we combine EU-wide official business sentiment indicators with world input-output (IO) data and information on indirect wage costs. Econometrically, we model interdependencies in economic activities via IO-linkages and apply space-time models. The resulting evidence provides indication for the existence of substantial spillovers in business sentiment formation. Accordingly, and highlighted by the estimated impacts of changes in indirect labor costs, policy reforms aiming at increasing the resilience of the European single market need to take these spillovers into account in order to increase its effectiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Anja Kukuvec & Harald Oberhofer, 2018. "The propagation of business sentiment within the European Union," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp257, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp257
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    2. Alžbeta Suhányiová & Ladislav Suhányi & Michaela Kočišová, 2023. "Business Confidence in the Sustainable Manufacturing Sector in the Context of Production, Production Prices, and Interest Rates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business sentiment; propagation; economic fluctuations; input-output linkages; networks; space-time model; policy reforms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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