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Business Cycle Turning Points and Local Labour Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Taylor, Karl

    (University of Sheffield)

  • Bhadury, Soumya

    (2Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB))

  • Binner, Jane

    (University of Birmingham)

  • Mandal, Anandadeep

    (University of Birmingham)

Abstract

In this paper we consider the predictors of the business cycle in Great Britain, where the claimant count and unemployment rate are found to be key indicators associated with turning points. Next, we consider at a micro-economic level, using disaggregated local authority level data, a number of local labour market issues: (i) the determinants of the claimant count and unemployment rate (both highly correlated with the cycle); (ii) local level economic resilience; and (iii) the likelihood of different states of regional vulnerability. Benefit generosity, unit labour costs and state dependence (hysteresis) are key drivers of local labour market performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Karl & Bhadury, Soumya & Binner, Jane & Mandal, Anandadeep, 2024. "Business Cycle Turning Points and Local Labour Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 17153, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17153
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle dating; local labour markets; resilience; regional vulnerability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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