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Consumer Confidence, Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: The Case Of Turkey

Author

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  • GORMUS Sakir
  • GUNES, Sevcan

Abstract

During the last few years a large number of economist and institutions have expressed increasing concerns regarding to importance of confidence on economic variables. They believe that increase in economic agents’ confidence will affect economic variables positively. The main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) on real exchange rate and stock market in Turkey over the 2002:1 – 2008:12 periods by utilizing several econometric techniques. Most of the empirical studies have examined the effect of macroeconomics variables on confidence and ignored the effect of confidence on macroeconomics variables. In this study, we will try to fill up this gap by examining the effect of CNBC-e Consumer Confidence Index on reel exchange rate and stock market in Turkey. The results showed that Granger-causality run from stock price and real exchange rate to CCI but not vice versa. Also, the results from GARCH-M and OLS model showed that CCI affect reel exchange rate and stock price.

Suggested Citation

  • GORMUS Sakir & GUNES, Sevcan, 2010. "Consumer Confidence, Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: The Case Of Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:10:y:2010:i:2_9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ani Stoitsova-Stoykova, 2017. "Relationship Between Public Expectations and Financial Market Dynamics in South- East Europe Capital Markets," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 237-250, June.
    2. Hatice Gökçe Karasoy Can & Çağlar Yüncüler, 2018. "The Explanatory Power and the Forecast Performance of Consumer Confidence Indices for Private Consumption Growth in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(9), pages 2136-2152, July.
    3. Vladimir Tsenkov & Ani Stoitsova-Stoykova, 2017. "Interaction between the public attitudes and the stock exchange dynamics in Southeastern European countries," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 93-111.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic variables; Consumer confidence. Stock market; Exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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