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Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

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Cited by:

  1. Coccia, Mario, 2019. "The theory of technological parasitism for the measurement of the evolution of technology and technological forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 289-304.
  2. Christopher L Benson & Christopher L Magee, 2015. "Quantitative Determination of Technological Improvement from Patent Data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, April.
  3. Abdulla Kaya & Denes Csala & Sgouris Sgouridis, 2017. "Constant elasticity of substitution functions for energy modeling in general equilibrium integrated assessment models: a critical review and recommendations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 27-40, November.
  4. Farmer, J. Doyne & Lafond, François, 2016. "How predictable is technological progress?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 647-665.
  5. Way, Rupert & Lafond, François & Lillo, Fabrizio & Panchenko, Valentyn & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2019. "Wright meets Markowitz: How standard portfolio theory changes when assets are technologies following experience curves," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 211-238.
  6. Magee, C.L. & Basnet, S. & Funk, J.L. & Benson, C.L., 2016. "Quantitative empirical trends in technical performance," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 237-246.
  7. Bergesen, Joseph D. & Suh, Sangwon, 2016. "A framework for technological learning in the supply chain: A case study on CdTe photovoltaics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 721-728.
  8. Lafond, François & Greenwald, Diana & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2022. "Can Stimulating Demand Drive Costs Down? World War II as a Natural Experiment," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 727-764, September.
  9. Hetong Wang & Kuishuang Feng & Peng Wang & Yuyao Yang & Laixiang Sun & Fan Yang & Wei-Qiang Chen & Yiyi Zhang & Jiashuo Li, 2023. "China’s electric vehicle and climate ambitions jeopardized by surging critical material prices," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
  10. Gi-Young Chae & Seung-Hyun An & Chul-Yong Lee, 2021. "Demand Forecasting for Liquified Natural Gas Bunkering by Country and Region Using Meta-Analysis and Artificial Intelligence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-18, August.
  11. Xaviery N. Penisa & Michael T. Castro & Jethro Daniel A. Pascasio & Eugene A. Esparcia & Oliver Schmidt & Joey D. Ocon, 2020. "Projecting the Price of Lithium-Ion NMC Battery Packs Using a Multifactor Learning Curve Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-18, October.
  12. Ashwin K Seshadri, 2018. "Economics of carbon-dioxide abatement under an exogenous constraint on cumulative emissions," Papers 1808.08717, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
  13. Kavlak, Goksin & McNerney, James & Trancik, Jessika E., 2018. "Evaluating the causes of cost reduction in photovoltaic modules," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 700-710.
  14. Nicolas Schmid & Leonore Haelg & Sebastian Sewerin & Tobias S. Schmidt & Irina Simmen, 2021. "Governing complex societal problems: The impact of private on public regulation through technological change," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(3), pages 840-855, July.
  15. Erin Baker & Olaitan Olaleye & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2015. "Decision Frameworks and the Investment in R&D," Working Papers 2015.42, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  16. Moglianesi, Andrea & Keppo, Ilkka & Lerede, Daniele & Savoldi, Laura, 2023. "Role of technology learning in the decarbonization of the iron and steel sector: An energy system approach using a global-scale optimization model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
  17. Wei, Max & Smith, Sarah J. & Sohn, Michael D., 2017. "Experience curve development and cost reduction disaggregation for fuel cell markets in Japan and the US," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 346-357.
  18. Dosi, Giovanni & Grazzi, Marco & Mathew, Nanditha, 2017. "The cost-quantity relations and the diverse patterns of “learning by doing”: Evidence from India," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1873-1886.
  19. Santhakumar, Srinivasan & Meerman, Hans & Faaij, André, 2024. "Future costs of key emerging offshore renewable energy technologies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
  20. Philip Metzger, 2023. "Economics of In-Space Industry and Competitiveness of Lunar-Derived Rocket Propellant," Papers 2303.09011, arXiv.org.
  21. Thomassen, Gwenny & Van Passel, Steven & Dewulf, Jo, 2020. "A review on learning effects in prospective technology assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  22. Salvador Pueyo, 2014. "Ecological Econophysics for Degrowth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(6), pages 1-53, May.
  23. Santhakumar, Srinivasan & Meerman, Hans & Faaij, André, 2021. "Improving the analytical framework for quantifying technological progress in energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  24. Ding, H. & Zhou, D.Q. & Liu, G.Q. & Zhou, P., 2020. "Cost reduction or electricity penetration: Government R&D-induced PV development and future policy schemes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  25. Li, Yanan & Lin, Jun & Qian, Yanjun & Li, Dehong, 2023. "Feed-in tariff policy for biomass power generation: Incorporating the feedstock acquisition process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(3), pages 1113-1132.
  26. Salvador Pueyo, 2019. "Limits to green growth and the dynamics of innovation," Papers 1904.09586, arXiv.org, revised May 2019.
  27. Rick Kotze & Alan C. Brent & Josephine Musango & Imke de Kock & Leonard A. Malczynski, 2021. "Investigating the Investments Required to Transition New Zealand’s Heavy-Duty Vehicles to Hydrogen," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, March.
  28. Mariam Barry & Giorgio Triulzi & Christopher L. Magee, 2017. "Food Productivity Trends from Hybrid Corn: Statistical Analysis of Patents and Field-test data," Papers 1706.05911, arXiv.org.
  29. Benjamin David, 2014. "On the information and communication technologies - productivity nexus: a long-lasting adjustment period," Working Papers hal-04141282, HAL.
  30. Simone Vannuccini & Ekaterina Prytkova, 2021. "Artificial Intelligence’s New Clothes? From General Purpose Technology to Large Technical System," SPRU Working Paper Series 2021-02, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
  31. Gregory Casey, 2024. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 192-228.
  32. John C. Boik, 2016. "Optimality of Social Choice Systems: Complexity, Wisdom, and Wellbeing Centrality," Working Paper 0005, Principled Societies Project, revised Mar 2017.
  33. Reed, Jeffrey & Dailey, Emily & Shaffer, Brendan & Lane, Blake & Flores, Robert & Fong, Amber & Samuelsen, Scott, 2023. "Potential evolution of the renewable hydrogen sector using California as a reference market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
  34. Özdemir, Özge & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & van Hout, Marit & Koutstaal, Paul R., 2020. "Capacity vs energy subsidies for promoting renewable investment: Benefits and costs for the EU power market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  35. Guanglu Zhang & Douglas Allaire & Venkatesh Shankar & Daniel A McAdams, 2019. "A case against the trickle-down effect in technology ecosystems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-7, June.
  36. Heinrich, Torsten, 2016. "The Narrow and the Broad Approach to Evolutionary Modeling in Economics," MPRA Paper 75797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Funk, Jeffrey L. & Magee, Christopher L., 2015. "Rapid improvements with no commercial production: How do the improvements occur?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 777-788.
  38. Gilmore, Nicholas & Koskinen, Ilpo & van Gennip, Domenique & Paget, Greta & Burr, Patrick A. & Obbard, Edward G. & Daiyan, Rahman & Sproul, Alistair & Kay, Merlinde & Lennon, Alison & Konstantinou, Ge, 2022. "Clean energy futures: An Australian based foresight study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
  39. Benjamin David, 2014. "On the information and communication technologies - productivity nexus: a long-lasting adjustment period," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-60, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  40. Santhakumar, Srinivasan & Smart, Gavin & Noonan, Miriam & Meerman, Hans & Faaij, André, 2022. "Technological progress observed for fixed-bottom offshore wind in the EU and UK," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
  41. Gruetzemacher, Ross & Dorner, Florian E. & Bernaola-Alvarez, Niko & Giattino, Charlie & Manheim, David, 2021. "Forecasting AI progress: A research agenda," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
  42. Sgouris Sgouridis & Abdulla Kaya & Denes Csala, 2016. "Switching Economics for Physics and the Carbon Price Inflation: Problems in Integrated Assessment Models and their Implications," Papers 1603.06196, arXiv.org.
  43. Franklyn Kanyako & Erin Baker, 2021. "Uncertainty analysis of the future cost of wind energy on climate change mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-17, May.
  44. Tibebu, Tiruwork B. & Hittinger, Eric & Miao, Qing & Williams, Eric, 2021. "What is the optimal subsidy for residential solar?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  45. Karali, Nihan & Park, Won Young & McNeil, Michael, 2017. "Modeling technological change and its impact on energy savings in the U.S. iron and steel sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 447-458.
  46. Reinhard Haas & Marlene Sayer & Amela Ajanovic & Hans Auer, 2023. "Technological learning: Lessons learned on energy technologies," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), March.
  47. Prata, Ricardo & Carvalho, Pedro M.S., 2018. "Self-supply and regulated tariffs: Dynamic equilibria between photovoltaic market evolution and rate structures to ensure network sustainability," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 111-123.
  48. Zhang, Guanglu & McAdams, Daniel A. & Shankar, Venkatesh & Darani, Milad Mohammadi, 2017. "Modeling the evolution of system technology performance when component and system technology performances interact: Commensalism and amensalism," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 116-124.
  49. Hann-Earl Kim & Yu-Sang Chang & Hee-Jin Kim, 2021. "Dynamic Electricity Intensity Trends in 91 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-26, April.
  50. Few, Sheridan & Schmidt, Oliver & Offer, Gregory J. & Brandon, Nigel & Nelson, Jenny & Gambhir, Ajay, 2018. "Prospective improvements in cost and cycle life of off-grid lithium-ion battery packs: An analysis informed by expert elicitations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 578-590.
  51. Pfeiffer, Alexander & Millar, Richard & Hepburn, Cameron & Beinhocker, Eric, 2016. "The ‘2°C capital stock’ for electricity generation: Committed cumulative carbon emissions from the electricity generation sector and the transition to a green economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1395-1408.
  52. Joshua S. Gans & Michael Kearney & Erin L. Scott & Scott Stern, 2021. "Choosing Technology: An Entrepreneurial Strategy Approach," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 39-53, March.
  53. Patrick Planing, 2017. "On the origin of innovations—the opportunity vacuum as a conceptual model for the explanation of innovation," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
  54. Anuraag Singh & Giorgio Triulzi & Christopher L. Magee, 2020. "Technological improvement rate estimates for all technologies: Use of patent data and an extended domain description," Papers 2004.13919, arXiv.org.
  55. Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Henrion, Max & Aleluia Reis, Lara, 2015. "Future costs of key low-carbon energy technologies: Harmonization and aggregation of energy technology expert elicitation data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 219-232.
  56. Shayegh, Soheil & Sanchez, Daniel L. & Caldeira, Ken, 2017. "Evaluating relative benefits of different types of R&D for clean energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 532-538.
  57. Wei, Max & Smith, Sarah Josephine & Sohn, Michael D., 2017. "Non-constant learning rates in retrospective experience curve analyses and their correlation to deployment programs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 356-369.
  58. J. Farmer & Cameron Hepburn & Penny Mealy & Alexander Teytelboym, 2015. "A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 329-357, October.
  59. Rubina Zadourian, 2024. "Model-based and empirical analyses of stochastic fluctuations in economy and finance," Papers 2408.16010, arXiv.org.
  60. Christopher L. Magee & Tessaleno C. Devezas, 2016. "A Simple extension of Dematerialization Theory: Incorporation of Technical Progress and the Rebound Effect," Papers 1602.00090, arXiv.org.
  61. Lane, Blake & Kinnon, Michael Mac & Shaffer, Brendan & Samuelsen, Scott, 2022. "Deployment planning tool for environmentally sensitive heavy-duty vehicles and fueling infrastructure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
  62. Alexander Kott, 2020. "Toward universal laws of technology evolution: modeling multi-century advances in mobile direct-fire systems," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 17(4), pages 373-388, October.
  63. Triulzi, Giorgio & Alstott, Jeff & Magee, Christopher L., 2020. "Estimating technology performance improvement rates by mining patent data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  64. Das, Saptarshi & Hittinger, Eric & Williams, Eric, 2020. "Learning is not enough: Diminishing marginal revenues and increasing abatement costs of wind and solar," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 634-644.
  65. Mario Coccia, 2019. "Technological Parasitism," Papers 1901.09073, arXiv.org.
  66. Nykvist, Björn & Sprei, Frances & Nilsson, Måns, 2019. "Assessing the progress toward lower priced long range battery electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 144-155.
  67. Cherie Courseault Trumbach & Dinah M. Payne, 2015. "Technology development and disasters: is there a silver lining to the dark cloud?," International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(2), pages 121-136.
  68. Benson, Christopher L. & Magee, Christopher L., 2014. "On improvement rates for renewable energy technologies: Solar PV, wind turbines, capacitors, and batteries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 745-751.
  69. Singh, Anuraag & Triulzi, Giorgio & Magee, Christopher L., 2021. "Technological improvement rate predictions for all technologies: Use of patent data and an extended domain description," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
  70. Gilmore, Elisabeth A. & Blohm, Andrew & Sinsabaugh, Steven, 2014. "An economic and environmental assessment of transporting bulk energy from a grazing ocean thermal energy conversion facility," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 361-367.
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