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A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Did the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rise?

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  1. Given the enormity of the short- and long-run fiscal challenges facing the US, the lack of policy detail from both presidential candidates is disappointing
    by Blog Admin in British Politics and Policy at LSE on 2012-10-25 18:00:36
  2. Monetary or fiscal stimulus can help only if unemployment is cyclical; otherwise, if unemployment is structural expansionary policies will lead only to inflation. Careful recent analyses indicate that unemployment is mainly cyclical in the US
    by Blog Admin in British Politics and Policy at LSE on 2012-10-24 21:00:33

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Hrishikesh D. Vinod, 2012. "Unemployment Reduction Prowess Under Bush versus Obama Years," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2012_02, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
  2. Edward P. Lazear, 2014. "Structural or cyclic? Labor markets in recessions," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-4, August.
  3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
  4. Michael Christl, 2020. "A Beveridge curve decomposition for Austria: did the liberalisation of the Austrian labour market shift the Beveridge curve?," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 54(1), pages 1-15, December.
  5. Valletta, Robert G., 2013. "House lock and structural unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 86-97.
  6. Hall, R.E., 2016. "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2131-2181, Elsevier.
  7. Giorgio Gronchi & Elena Parilina & Alessandro Tampieri, 2021. "Plenty of Fish in the Sea: Divorce Choice and the Quality of Singles," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-33, November.
  8. Stefan Schiman, 2021. "Labor Supply Shocks and the Beveridge Curve: Empirical Evidence from EU Enlargement," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 108-127, April.
  9. Florian Sniekers, 2018. "Persistence And Volatility Of Beveridge Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(2), pages 665-698, May.
  10. Mary C. Daly, 2023. "What the Moment Demands," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(30), pages 1-6, November.
  11. Luca Sala & Ulf Söderström & Antonella Trigari, 2013. "Structural and Cyclical Forces in the Labor Market during the Great Recession: Cross-Country Evidence," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 345-404.
  12. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-1154, December.
  13. Rebecca Craigie & David Gillmore & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Matching workers with jobs:how well is the New Zealand labour market doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 3-12, December.
  14. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
  15. Nauro F. Campos & Corrado Macchiarelli & Fotios Mitropoulos, 2024. "Okun in the Euro: New Evidence from Structural Okun Law’s Estimates for the Euro Area, 1979-2019," CESifo Working Paper Series 11314, CESifo.
  16. Mary A. Burke & Alicia Sasser Modestino & Shahriar Sadighi & Rachel B. Sederberg & Bledi Taska, 2019. "No Longer Qualified? Changes in the Supply and Demand for Skills within Occupations," Working Papers 20-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  17. Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2013. "Uncertainty and the slow labor market recovery," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july22.
  18. Murat Tasci, 2012. "The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in the Long Run: Unemployment Flows and the Natural Rate," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1233, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  19. Freund, Caroline & Rijkers, Bob, 2014. "Episodes of unemployment reduction in rich, middle-income and transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 907-923.
  20. Yu-Fan Huang & Sui Luo, 2018. "Potential output and inflation dynamics after the Great Recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 495-517, September.
  21. Robert E. Hall & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2018. "Measuring Job-Finding Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogeneous Job-Seekers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, January.
  22. Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2013. "Beveridge Curve Shifts across Countries since the Great Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(4), pages 566-600, December.
  23. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL & Ștefan Gabriel DUMBRAVĂ & Lucian ENE, 2018. "Analyzing the employment rate of the population, unemployment and vacancies in the economy," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(615), S), pages 105-118, Summer.
  24. Gadi Barlevy & R. Jason Faberman & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2024. "The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 83-106, Spring.
  25. John C. Williams, 2013. "The economy and monetary policy in uncertain times," Speech 115, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  26. John C. Williams, 2012. "The economic outlook and challenges to monetary policy," Speech 110, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  27. Felipe, Jesus & Estrada, Gemma & Lanzafame, Matteo, 2022. "The turnaround in Philippine growth: From disappointment to promising success," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 327-342.
  28. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Mirela PANAIT, 2017. "Main Developments and Perspectives of the European Union," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(2), pages 57-79, June.
  29. Fabia Gumbau-Brisa & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2013. "An evaluation of the Federal Reserve estimates of the natural rate of unemployment in real time," Working Papers 13-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  30. Serdar Birinci & Kurt See, 2023. "Labor Market Responses to Unemployment Insurance: The Role of Heterogeneity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 388-430, July.
  31. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
  32. Ángel L. Martín‐Román & Jaime Cuéllar‐Martín & Alfonso Moral, 2023. "Natural and cyclical unemployment: A stochastic frontier decomposition and economic policy implications," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 5-39, January.
  33. Ben S. Bernanke, 2012. "Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Crisis : a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 31, 2012," Speech 645, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  34. Peter A. Diamond, 2013. "Structural unemployment," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  35. Edward P. Lazear & James R. Spletzer, 2012. "The United States labor market: status quo or a new normal?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 405-451.
  36. Boele Bonthuis & Valerie Jarvis & Juuso Vanhala, 2016. "Shifts in euro area Beveridge curves and their determinants," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, December.
  37. Peter A. Diamond & Ayşegül Şahin, 2016. "Disaggregating the Matching Function," NBER Working Papers 22965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2016. "The slow job recovery in a macro model of search and recruiting intensity," Working Paper Series 2016-9, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  39. Nicolas Jacquemet & Olivier L’Haridon & Isabelle Vialle, 2014. "Marché du travail, évaluation et économie expérimentale," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 189-226.
  40. Hugo Erken & Eric Loon & Wouter Verbeek, 2015. "Mismatch on the Dutch Labour Market in the Great Recession," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 435-459, December.
  41. Berger, Tino & Everaert, Gerdie & Vierke, Hauke, 2016. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 179-208.
  42. Cardullo, Gabriele & Guerci, Eric, 2019. "Interpreting the Beveridge curve. An agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 84-100.
  43. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Shoag, Daniel & Ballance, Joshua, 2016. "Downskilling: changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 333-347.
  44. repec:fip:fedfsp:y:2013:i:jan.14 is not listed on IDEAS
  45. Ivan Luzardo-Luna, 2022. "Regional Employment Polarization in a Time of Crisis: The case of Interwar Britain," PIER Working Paper Archive 22-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  46. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components: The impact of labour market reforms in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100499, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  47. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Have Standard VARS Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 931-951, August.
  48. Hannah Sheldon, 2020. "The Beveridge curve and equilibrium unemployment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 3182-3192.
  49. Hugo Erken & Eric van Loon & Wouter Verbeek, 2015. "Mismatch on the Dutch labour market in the Great Recession," CPB Discussion Paper 303.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  50. Maré, David C. & Fabling, Richard, 2013. "The Incidence and Persistence of Cyclical Job Loss in New Zealand," IZA Discussion Papers 7745, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  51. Luzardo-Luna, Ivan, 2020. "Labour frictions in interwar Britain: industrial reshuffling and the origin of mass unemployment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105707, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  52. Christopher Boone & Arindrajit Dube & Lucas Goodman & Ethan Kaplan, 2021. "Unemployment Insurance Generosity and Aggregate Employment," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 58-99, May.
  53. Peter Diamond, 2013. "Cyclical Unemployment, Structural Unemployment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(3), pages 410-455, August.
  54. Bart Hobijn, 2012. "The industry-occupation mix of U.S. job openings and hires," Working Paper Series 2012-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  55. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
  56. Gonul Sengul & Murat Tasci, 2014. "Unemployment Flows, Participation and the Natural Rate for Turkey," Working Papers 1435, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  57. Dan CRUCERU & Dumitru MARIN & Constantin ANGHELACHE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL, 2017. "Analysis Of Labor Force Developments In The European Union And Its Cost," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(5), pages 198-210, May.
  58. Razzak, 2015. "Wage, productivity and unemployment: microeconomics theory and macroeconomics data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(58), pages 6284-6300, December.
  59. Diamond, Peter A. & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "Shifts in the Beveridge curve," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 18-25.
  60. Crawley, Andrew & Welch, Sarah & Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Improving estimates of job matching efficiency with different measures of unemployment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  61. Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Robert Hall, 2014. "Measuring Matching Efficiency with Heterogeneous Jobseekers," 2014 Meeting Papers 368, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  62. Francisco Perez‐Arce & María J. Prados, 2021. "The Decline In The U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 615-652, April.
  63. Hugo Erken & Eric van Loon & Wouter Verbeek, 2015. "Mismatch on the Dutch labour market in the Great Recession," CPB Discussion Paper 303, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  64. Francisco Perez-Arce & Maria J. Prados & Tarra Kohli, 2018. "The Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Working Papers wp385, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  65. Jeff Borland, 2014. "Recent Unemployment Experience in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/01, New Zealand Treasury.
  66. Richard K. Crump & Christopher J. Nekarda & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2020. "Unemployment Rate Benchmarks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-072, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  67. Sabine Klinger & Enzo Weber, 2016. "Decomposing Beveridge Curve Dynamics By Correlated Unobserved Components," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 877-894, December.
  68. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2015. "Hysteresis and Persistent Long-Term Unemployment: Lessons from the Great Depression and World War II," Working Papers 2015-02, American University, Department of Economics.
  69. Narek Ghazaryan, 2014. "Short Term Forecasting System of Private Demand Components in Armenia," Working Papers 3, Central Bank of Armenia, revised Dec 2015.
  70. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2018. "Hysteresis and persistent long-term unemployment: the American Beveridge Curve of the Great Depression and World War II," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(1), pages 127-152, January.
  71. Aysun, Uluc & Bouvet, Florence & Hofler, Richard, 2014. "An alternative measure of structural unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 592-603.
  72. Sengul, Gonul & Tasci, Murat, 2020. "Unemployment flows, participation, and the natural rate of unemployment: Evidence from turkey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  73. John C. Williams, 2012. "The economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct1.
  74. Andrés Álvarez, 2016. "La Curva de Beveridge en Colombia (1976-2014): Cambios cíclicos y estructurales," Borradores de Economia 962, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  75. Arpaia, Alfonso & Kiss, Aron & Turrini, Alessandro, 2014. "Is Unemployment Structural or Cyclical? Main Features of Job Matching in the EU after the Crisis," IZA Policy Papers 91, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  76. Dave Reifschneider & William Wascher & David Wilcox, 2015. "Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 71-109, May.
  77. Paula Alexandra Roibu Crucianu, 2019. "The Impact of Unemployment on the Economic Growth in Romania," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 174-179, December.
  78. Nicolas Jacquemet & Olivier L’Haridon & Isabelle Vialle, 2014. "Marché du travail, évaluation et économie expérimentale," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 189-226.
  79. W. A. Razzak, 2016. "New Zealand Labor Market Dynamics: Pre- and Post-global Financial Crisis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 49-79, September.
  80. Vanags, Alf & Sonin, Konstantin & Anosova, Daria & Zasova, Anna, 2013. "Structural or Cyclical? Unemployment in Latvia Since the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9525, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  81. Richard Raines & Jungho Baek, 2016. "The Recent Evolution of the U.S. Beveridge Curve: Evidence from the ARDL Approach," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 14-24, August.
  82. Ali Alichi & Hayk Avetisyan & Douglas Laxton & Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Armen Nurbekyan & Lusine Torosyan & Hou Wang & Armen Nurbekyan & Lusine Torosyan, 2019. "Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis," Working Papers 9, Central Bank of Armenia, revised Aug 2019.
  83. Michael U. Krause & Thomas A. Lubik, 2014. "Modeling Labor Markets in Macroeconomics: Search and Matching," Working Paper 14-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  84. Christian Haddad & Lars Hornuf, 2021. "The Impact of Fintech Startups on Financial Institutions' Performance and Default Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 9050, CESifo.
  85. Athanasios Orphanides, 2012. "Commentary: the United States labor market: status quio pr a new normal?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 453-462.
  86. Ayşegül Şahin, 2021. "Comment on "Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021, volume 36, pages 68-79, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  87. Stefan Schiman, 2018. "Labor Supply Shocks and the Beveridge Curve," WIFO Working Papers 568, WIFO.
  88. Laura Barbieri & Chiara Mussida, 2018. "Structural differences across macroregions: an empirical investigation," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 215-246, May.
  89. Mitman, Kurt & Rabinovich, Stanislav, 2024. "Do unemployment benefit extensions explain the emergence of jobless recoveries?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
  90. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2021. "The Impact of COVID on Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2021-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  91. repec:fip:fedfsp:y:2012:i:sep24 is not listed on IDEAS
  92. Ben S. Bernanke, 2012. "Opening remarks: monetary policy since the onset of the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-22.
  93. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.
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