IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2013ijuly22n2013-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty and the slow labor market recovery

Author

Listed:
  • Sylvain Leduc
  • Zheng Liu

Abstract

Since 2009, U.S. job vacancies have increased but unemployment has fallen more slowly than in past recoveries. There is evidence that heightened uncertainty about economic policy has been an important factor behind this change. Increased uncertainty may discourage businesses from filling vacancies, thereby raising unemployment. An estimate indicates that, without policy uncertainty, the unemployment rate in late 2012 would have been close to 6.5%, 1.3 percentage points lower than the actual rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2013. "Uncertainty and the slow labor market recovery," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july22.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2013:i:july22:n:2013-21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2013/july/us-labor-market-uncertainty-slow-recovery/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2013/july/us-labor-market-uncertainty-slow-recovery/el2013-21.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2012. "A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Did the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rise?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
    2. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2013. "The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 581-622.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2015. "Hysteresis and Persistent Long-Term Unemployment: Lessons from the Great Depression and World War II," Working Papers 2015-02, American University, Department of Economics.
    2. Bordo, Michael D. & Duca, John V. & Koch, Christoffer, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 90-106.
    3. Ameet Kumar & Muhammad Ramzan Kalhoro & Rakesh Kumar & Niaz Hussain Ghumro & Sarfraz Ahmed Dakhan & Vikesh Kumar, 2020. "Decomposing the Effect of Domestic and Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks on Real and Financial Sectors: Evidence from BRIC Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-23, December.
    4. Adam Hale Shapiro & Daniel J. Wilson, 2017. "What's in the News? A New Economic Indicator," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert E. Hall & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2018. "Measuring Job-Finding Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogeneous Job-Seekers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, January.
    2. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
    3. Edward P. Lazear & James R. Spletzer, 2012. "The United States labor market: status quo or a new normal?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 405-451.
    4. Hugo Erken & Eric van Loon & Wouter Verbeek, 2015. "Mismatch on the Dutch labour market in the Great Recession," CPB Discussion Paper 303, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Sabine Klinger & Enzo Weber, 2016. "Decomposing Beveridge Curve Dynamics By Correlated Unobserved Components," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 877-894, December.
    6. Gadi Barlevy & R. Jason Faberman & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2024. "The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 83-106, Spring.
    7. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components: The impact of labour market reforms in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100499, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Cardullo, Gabriele & Guerci, Eric, 2019. "Interpreting the Beveridge curve. An agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 84-100.
    9. Peter A. Diamond & Ayşegül Şahin, 2016. "Disaggregating the Matching Function," NBER Working Papers 22965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Hugo Erken & Eric van Loon & Wouter Verbeek, 2015. "Mismatch on the Dutch labour market in the Great Recession," CPB Discussion Paper 303.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Luzardo-Luna, Ivan, 2020. "Labour frictions in interwar Britain: industrial reshuffling and the origin of mass unemployment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105707, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Bart Hobijn, 2012. "The industry-occupation mix of U.S. job openings and hires," Working Paper Series 2012-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Michael Christl, 2020. "A Beveridge curve decomposition for Austria: did the liberalisation of the Austrian labour market shift the Beveridge curve?," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 54(1), pages 1-15, December.
    14. John M. Abowd & Francis Kramarz & Sébastien Pérez-Duarte & Ian M. Schmutte, 2018. "Sorting Between and Within Industries: A Testable Model of Assortative Matching," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 129, pages 1-32.
    15. Sniekers, F.J.T., 2013. "Endogenous Beveridge cycles and the volatility of unemployment," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    16. Narek Ghazaryan, 2014. "Short Term Forecasting System of Private Demand Components in Armenia," Working Papers 3, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, revised Dec 2015.
    17. Andrea Colciago & Lorenza Rossi, 2011. "Endogenous Market Structures and Labor Market Dynamics," Quaderni di Dipartimento 139, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods, revised Feb 2011.
    18. Ronald Bachmann & Peggy Bechara, 2019. "The Importance of Two‐Sided Heterogeneity for the Cyclicality of Labour Market Dynamics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 87(6), pages 794-820, December.
    19. Ay?egül ?ahin & Joseph Song & Giorgio Topa & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "Mismatch Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3529-3564, November.
    20. Andreas Hornstein & Marios Karabarbounis & Andre Kurmann & Etienne Lale & Lien Ta, 2023. "Disincentive Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefits," Working Paper 23-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy; Labor market;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2013:i:july22:n:2013-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.