IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/wtowps/ersd200904.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exposure to external country specific shocks and income volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Jansen, Marion
  • Lennon, Carolina
  • Piermartini, Roberta

Abstract

We show that exposure to country specific shocks has a positive and significant impact on GDP volatility. In particular, we find that the degree to which the cycles of different trading partners are correlated is more important in explaining exporters’ GDP volatility than the volatility of demand in individual export market. We also show that geographical diversification is a significant determinant of countries' exposure to country specific shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jansen, Marion & Lennon, Carolina & Piermartini, Roberta, 2009. "Exposure to external country specific shocks and income volatility," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2009-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd200904
    DOI: 10.30875/2fa80669-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/26731/1/592490262.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.30875/2fa80669-en?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    2. Easterly, William & Kraay, Aart, 2000. "Small States, Small Problems? Income, Growth, and Volatility in Small States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2013-2027, November.
    3. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 2013. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Raymond Riezman (ed.), International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 19, pages 369-394, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
    5. Martin, Philippe & Ann Rogers, Carol, 2000. "Long-term growth and short-term economic instability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 359-381, February.
    6. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
    7. Imbs, Jean, 2007. "Growth and volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1848-1862, October.
    8. Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
    9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    10. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    11. Rodrik, Dani, 2001. "Why is there so much economic insecurity in Latin America?," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    12. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
    13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    14. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    15. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    16. Hausmann, Ricardo & Gavin, Michael, 1996. "Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock Prone Region: The Policy Challenge for Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6191, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. Brainard, William C. & Cooper, Richard N., 1968. "Uncertainty and Diversification in International Trade," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 8(3), pages 1-29.
    18. Calderon, Cesar & Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2005. "Does openness imply greater exposure ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3733, The World Bank.
    19. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
    20. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
    21. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    22. Love, James, 1986. "Commodity concentration and export earnings instability : A shift from cross-section to time series analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 239-248, December.
    23. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    24. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin, 1996. "Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock Prone Region: The Policy Challenge for Latin America," Research Department Publications 4020, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Balavac, Merima & Pugh, Geoff, 2016. "The link between trade openness, export diversification, institutions and output volatility in transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 273-287.
    2. Thi Nguyet Anh Nguyen & Thi Hong Hanh Pham & Thomas Vallée, 2020. "Trade Volatility in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus Three: Impacts and Determinants," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 37(2), pages 167-200, September.
    3. Brito, Márcio Holland de, 2010. "Inserção comercial do Brasil na américa do sul: um estudo sobre os efeitos da China na região," Textos para discussão 248, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    4. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Aid for Trade flows and Poverty Reduction in Recipient-Countries," EconStor Preprints 213807, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Peter McQuade, 2010. "The Evolution of International Trade on the Extensive and Intensive Margins," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp325, IIIS, revised Apr 2010.
    6. Felipe Starosta de Waldemar, 2010. "How costly is rent-seeking to diversification: an empirical approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 10008, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    7. Edward, Batte Sennoga & John Mary, Matovu, 2016. "Growth and Welfare Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks in Uganda," Occasional Papers 244096, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    8. Domańska Agnieszka & Serwa Dobromił, 2013. "Vulnerability to foreign macroeconomic shocks – an empirical study in cross-industry perspective. Example of 2008–2009 global crisis in Europe," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 150-173, December.
    9. Martin, Julien & Mayneris, Florian, 2015. "High-end variety exporters defying gravity: Micro facts and aggregate implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 55-71.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Uruguay: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/063, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marion Jansen & Carolina Lennon & Roberta Piermartini, 2016. "Income volatility: whom you trade with matters," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 127-146, February.
    2. Montalbano, Pierluigi, 2011. "Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1489-1502, September.
    3. Sam Hak Kan Tang, 2018. "Does Scientific And Technical Research Reduce Macroeconomic Volatility?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 68-88, January.
    4. Balavac, Merima & Pugh, Geoff, 2016. "The link between trade openness, export diversification, institutions and output volatility in transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 273-287.
    5. Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Lin, Shu-Chin & Suen, Yu-Bo, 2016. "Trade, growth and growth volatility: New panel evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 384-399.
    6. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Exchange rate pressure, fiscal redistribution and poverty in developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1173-1203, November.
    7. Edward, Batte Sennoga & John Mary, Matovu, 2016. "Growth and Welfare Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks in Uganda," Occasional Papers 244096, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    8. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
    9. Jean-François Brun & Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Tax reform, public revenue and public revenue instability in developing countries: Does development aid matter?," Working Papers halshs-02089734, HAL.
    10. Alessandro Federici & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Macroeconomic volatility, consumption behaviour and welfare: A cross-country analysis," Working Paper Series 3612, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    11. Gonzalo Hernández, 2011. "Terms of Trade and Output Fluctuations in Colombia," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2011-04, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    12. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon & Harish Iyer, 2017. "Structural Economic Vulnerability, Trade Policy and FDI Inflows," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-35, February.
    13. Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Carolyn Chisadza & Matthew Clance, 2022. "The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and output volatility: High vs. low income countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 566-580, May.
    14. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Measuring macroeconomic volatility - Applications to export revenue data, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
    15. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Mesurer l’instabilité macroéconomique - Applications aux données de recettes d’exportation, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
    16. Mona Haddad & Jamus Jerome Lim & Cosimo Pancaro & Christian Saborowski, 2013. "Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 765-790, May.
    17. Eswar S. Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 457-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Tony Addison & Atanu Ghoshray & Michalis P. Stamatogiannis, 2016. "Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and Their Effect on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 47-61, February.
    19. Lee, Dongyeol & Zhang, Huan, 2022. "Export diversification in low-income countries and small states: Do country size and income level matter?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 250-265.
    20. Alimi, Nabil, 2016. "Volatility and growth in developing countries: An asymmetric effect," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PB), pages 179-188.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Income volatility; geographical export diversification; external shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd200904. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wtoerch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.