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Trade Volatility in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus Three: Impacts and Determinants

Author

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  • Thi Nguyet Anh Nguyen

    (Faculty of Business Management, National Economics University, Hanoi, Viet Nam. Email:)

  • Thi Hong Hanh Pham

    (LEMNA, Institute of Economics and Management, University of Nantes, France. Email:)

  • Thomas Vallée

    (LEMNA, Institute of Economics and Management, University of Nantes, France. Email:)

Abstract

This paper investigates trade volatility in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus Three (ASEAN+3) and its links with output volatility, export diversification, and free trade agreements. To achieve this research objective, we apply several econometric estimators to data from all ASEAN+3 member states over the period 1990–2016. We first find evidence of a positive relationship between output volatility and trade volatility. Second, we reveal that the way export diversification is measured can influence its impacts on bilateral export volatility. Moreover, the relationship between income volatility, trade volatility, and export diversification seems to depend on country size and the level of economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Thi Nguyet Anh Nguyen & Thi Hong Hanh Pham & Thomas Vallée, 2020. "Trade Volatility in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus Three: Impacts and Determinants," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 37(2), pages 167-200, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:adbadr:v:37:y:2020:i:2:p:167-200
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ASEAN+3; export diversification; FTA; output volatility; trade volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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