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Inserção comercial do Brasil na américa do sul: um estudo sobre os efeitos da China na região

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  • Brito, Márcio Holland de

Abstract

Este trabalho analisa a importância relativa de diferentes parceiros comerciais das economias da América do Sul, nas últimas duas décadas. A principal motivação deste estudo é a crescente influência da China no comércio internacional das economias da região. Conforme pesquisa empírica, analisa-se como a influência da China altera as relações comerciais no interior da região e de cada economia perante o resto do mundo. Entre os resultados mais relevantes destaca-se o fato de que a rápida penetração comercial da China na região renova as suas vantagens comparativas em recursos naturais, confirmando a vocação regional como exportadora de produtos primários. Outros resultados obtidos pelo uso da metodologia VAR são consistentes com a hipótese de que volatilidade nos termos de troca explica porque a performance econômica da América Latina é tão frágil. Os resultados incluem uma relação positiva entre crescimento e melhoria nos termos de troca. Noutras palavras, mesmo alterando sua direção comercial, as economias da região mantêm-se vulneráveis às oscilações dos preços internacionais de commodities e aos termos de troca.

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  • Brito, Márcio Holland de, 2010. "Inserção comercial do Brasil na américa do sul: um estudo sobre os efeitos da China na região," Textos para discussão 248, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:248
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