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British-European Trade Relations and Brexit: An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Economic and Financial Uncertainty on Exports

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  • Ansgar Belke

    (Institute for Business and Economic Studies (IBES), University of Duisburg-Essen, Berliner Platz 6-8, 45127 Essen, Germany
    Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), Place du Congrès 1, 1000 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Sebastian Ptok

    (Institut für Mittelstandsforschung Bonn (IfM), Maximilianstraße 20, 53111 Bonn, Germany)

Abstract

Brexit, the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), has led to significant exchange rate fluctuations and to uncertainty in financial markets and in UK–EU trade relations. In this article, we use a non-linear model to study how this uncertainty affects export companies. Exports tend to react in spurts when exchange rate fluctuations go beyond a band of inaction, referred to here as a “play area”. We apply an algorithm to study this hysteretic relationship with ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions. We examine the export relationship between Europe (Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, and The Netherlands) and the UK. To guarantee the robustness of the results, we estimate a variety of specifications for modeling economic uncertainty: (a) constant uncertainty, (b) exchange rate volatility, (c) volatility in European equity markets, (d) the Treasury Bill EuroDollar Difference (TED-spread), (e) the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI), and (f) a combination of exchange rate volatility and the EPUI. Since the results show little evidence of hysteretic effects on British exports, we focus on the European side. The specifications including exchange rate and equity market volatility show a significant effect of hysteresis.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Sebastian Ptok, 2018. "British-European Trade Relations and Brexit: An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Economic and Financial Uncertainty on Exports," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-22, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:3:p:73-:d:164346
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2009. "Monetary Economics in Globalised Financial Markets," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-71003-5, January.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Dominik Kronen, 2016. "Exchange rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in Greek exports to the Euro Area, the US and Turkey: sectoral evidence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 349-390, May.
    3. Impullitti, Giammario & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Opromolla, Luca David, 2013. "A theory of entry into and exit from export markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 75-90.
    4. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    5. Campa, Jose Manuel, 2004. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 527-548, June.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2013. "Exchange Rate Bands Of Inaction And Play-Hysteresis In German Exports—Sectoral Evidence For Some Oecd Destinations," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 152-179, February.
    7. De Grauwe, Paul, 2016. "Economics of Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 11, number 9780198739876.
    8. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    9. Pekka Ilmakunnas & Satu Nurmi, 2010. "Dynamics of Export Market Entry and Exit," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(1), pages 101-126, March.
    10. Belke, Ansgar & Oeking, Anne & Setzer, Ralph, 2015. "Domestic demand, capacity constraints and exporting dynamics: Empirical evidence for vulnerable euro area countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 315-325.
    11. Svetlana Fedoseeva & Laura M. Werner, 2014. "Asymmetry and Hysteresis: Two Perspectives on Pricing-to-Market Nonlinearity," Working Papers 2014.02, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    12. Juan A. Máñez & María E. Rochina-Barrachina & Juan A. Sanchis, 2008. "Sunk Costs Hysteresis in Spanish Manufacturing Exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(2), pages 272-294, July.
    13. Kannebley Jr., Sergio, 2008. "Tests for the hysteresis hypothesis in Brazilian industrialized exports: A threshold cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 171-190, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul J. J. Welfens & Tian Xiong, 2019. "BREXIT perspectives: financial market dynamics, welfare aspects and problems from slower growth," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 215-265, March.
    2. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2019. "Stock Market Reactions to Brexit: Case of Selected CEE and SEE Stock Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, January.

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