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Kosten der Maßnahmen aus dem "Entwurf eines Gesetzes über Leistungsverbesserungen und Stabilisierung in der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung"

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  • Holtemöller, Oliver
  • Zeddies, Götz

Abstract

Der Referentenentwurf des Gesetzes über Leistungsverbesserungen und Stabilisierung in der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung sieht folgende Leistungsausweitungen in der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung vor: Fixierung des Rentenniveaus bei 48% und der Haltelinie für den Beitragssatz bei 20%, Aufstockung der Mütterrente, Verbesserungen für Erwerbsgeminderte und Ausweitung der Gleitzone (so genannte "Midijobs"). Diese Maßnahmen werden vor allem langfristig erhebliche Auswirkungen auf die Ausgaben der Rentenversicherung haben; gleichzeitig wird die Anzahl der Beitragszahler aufgrund der Alterung der Bevölkerung abnehmen. Das heißt, selbst ohne die neuen Leistungsausweitungen stiegen die Abgaben (Beiträge und Steuern) zur Finanzierung der Rentenversicherung langfristig deutlich an. Berechnungen mit dem Rentensimulationsmodell des IWH zeigen, dass die effektive Abgabenlast (Rentenversicherungsbeitrag plus Steuerzuschüsse) in Relation zum Lohn bis zum Jahr 2050 ohne die neuen Leistungsausweitungen um acht und mit um weitere drei Prozentpunkte zunehmen dürfte. Wenn der Beitragssatz bei 20% konstant gehalten werden soll, müssten etwa die Einkommensteuer oder die Umsatzsteuer entsprechend kräftig erhöht werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Holtemöller, Oliver & Zeddies, Götz, 2018. "Kosten der Maßnahmen aus dem "Entwurf eines Gesetzes über Leistungsverbesserungen und Stabilisierung in der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung"," IWH Online 3/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhonl:32018
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Holtemöller, Oliver & Zeddies, Götz, 2017. "Zur Stabilisierung von Rentenniveau und Rentenversicherungsbeitrag," IWH Online 2/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Holtemöller Oliver & Schult Christoph & Zeddies Götz, 2018. "Zu den rentenpolitischen Plänen im Koalitionsvertrag 2018 von CDU, CSU und SPD: Konsequenzen, Finanzierungsoptionen und Reformbedarf," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 67(3), pages 247-265, November.
    3. Burkhard Heer & Alfred Maußner, 2024. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 3, number 978-3-031-51681-8, April.
    4. Holtemöller, Oliver & Pohle, Felix & Zeddies, Götz, 2016. "Was Änderungen beim Rentenniveau die Beitragszahler kosten," IWH Online 2/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Axel Börsch-Supan & Johannes Rausch, 2018. "Die Kosten der doppelten Haltelinie," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(09), pages 23-30, May.
    6. Auerbach, Alan J & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1987. "Evaluating Fiscal Policy with a Dynamic Simulation Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 49-55, May.
    7. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Rausch, Johannes, 2018. "Die Kosten der doppelten Haltelinie," MEA discussion paper series 201803, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    8. Holtemöller, Oliver & Pohle, Felix & Zeddies, Götz, 2016. "Stabilisierung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung durch Erhöhung des Renteneintrittsalters," IWH Online 3/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
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