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Zu den rentenpolitischen Plänen im Koalitionsvertrag 2018 von CDU, CSU und SPD: Konsequenzen, Finanzierungsoptionen und Reformbedarf

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  • Holtemöller Oliver

    (Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg und Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH), Kleine Märkerstraße 806108Tel.: (0345) 7753 800Halle (Saale)Deutschland)

  • Schult Christoph

    (Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH), Kleine Märkerstraße 806108Tel.: (0345) 7753 806Halle (Saale)Deutschland)

  • Zeddies Götz

    (Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg und Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH), Kleine Märkerstraße 806108Tel.: (0345) 7753 854Halle (Saale)Deutschland)

Abstract

In the coalition agreement from February 7, 2018, the new German federal government drafts its public pension policy, which has to be evaluated against the background of demographic dynamics in Germany. In this paper, the consequences of public pensions related policy measures for the German public pension insurance are illustrated using a simulation model. In the long run, the intended extensions of benefits would lead to an increase in the contribution rate to the German public pension insurance of about two and a half percentage points. Referring to pension systems of other countries, we discuss measures in order to limit this increase in the contribution rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Holtemöller Oliver & Schult Christoph & Zeddies Götz, 2018. "Zu den rentenpolitischen Plänen im Koalitionsvertrag 2018 von CDU, CSU und SPD: Konsequenzen, Finanzierungsoptionen und Reformbedarf," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 67(3), pages 247-265, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:lus:zwipol:v:67:y:2018:i:3:p:247-265:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/zfwp-2018-0016
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    1. Holtemöller, Oliver & Zeddies, Götz, 2017. "Zur Stabilisierung von Rentenniveau und Rentenversicherungsbeitrag," IWH Online 2/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Werding, Martin, 2014. "Demographischer Wandel und öffentliche Finanzen: Langfrist-Projektionen 2014-2060 unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Rentenreform-Pakets der Bundesregierung," Working Papers 01/2014, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    3. Holtemöller, Oliver & Pohle, Felix & Zeddies, Götz, 2016. "Was Änderungen beim Rentenniveau die Beitragszahler kosten," IWH Online 2/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. Axel Börsch-Supan & Johannes Rausch, 2018. "Die Kosten der doppelten Haltelinie," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(09), pages 23-30, May.
    5. Auerbach, Alan J & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1987. "Evaluating Fiscal Policy with a Dynamic Simulation Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 49-55, May.
    6. van Deuverden Kristina, 2017. "Nur geringer haushaltspolitischer Spielraum trotz hoher Überschüsse," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 50-60, April.
    7. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Rausch, Johannes, 2018. "Die Kosten der doppelten Haltelinie," MEA discussion paper series 201803, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    8. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2014. "Deutsche Wirtschaft stagniert – jetzt Wachstumskräfte stärken: Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2014," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(42), pages 1039-1115.
    9. Burkhard Heer & Alfred Maußner, 2024. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 3, number 978-3-031-51681-8, April.
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    11. Holtemöller, Oliver & Pohle, Felix & Zeddies, Götz, 2016. "Stabilisierung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung durch Erhöhung des Renteneintrittsalters," IWH Online 3/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    12. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2014. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose im Herbst 2014: Deutsche Wirtschaft stagniert – Jetzt Wachstumskräfte stärken (Kurzfassung)," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 20(5), pages 80-81.
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    1. Holtemöller, Oliver & Zeddies, Götz, 2021. "Projektion der Ausgaben für die Beamtenversorgung in Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2080," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 27(2), pages 30-34.
    2. Holtemöller, Oliver & Zeddies, Götz, 2018. "Kosten der Maßnahmen aus dem "Entwurf eines Gesetzes über Leistungsverbesserungen und Stabilisierung in der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung"," IWH Online 3/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ageing; demographic dynamics; public pension insurance; coalition agreement; public pension policies; Alterung; Bevölkerungsdynamik; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung; Koalitionsvertrag; Rentenpolitik;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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